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2026-W36

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-02 02:01:32 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.8% (3d) | Alignment: 29% (2 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β€” Moderate divergence β€” several structural signals disagree with price

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” DIX 0.469 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.09 balanced
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT GEX +4.6B strong suppression
Breadth βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Breadth 51% β€” mixed participation
Energy πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED Energy RISING β€” oil climbing, margin pressure building
growth_expectations πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED Copper/Gold -4.3% growth pessimism Β· real yield 2.44% restrictive
Correlations 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT SPY/VIX -0.72 normal, SPY/DXY -0.23 normal, SPY/TNX -0.35 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.48 elevated
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 16.3 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.58 dealer stress
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Stagflation score 24 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT USD/JPY 5d +0.6% stable, MOVE 78 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT HY OAS 2.63% benign, NFCI -0.566 loose

Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, correlations, and inflation flash bullish against the risk-on tape β€” 5 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 77/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $91, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.469; GEX positive at 4.6B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.3 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $761.56 | 50 SMA $754.36 | 200 SMA $710.27 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.83
  • QQQ: $707.53 | 50 SMA $711.59 | 200 SMA $655.65 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $708.99
  • IWM: $290.55 | 50 SMA $297.28 | 200 SMA $271.56 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $297.51
  • VIX: 16.34 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.796%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $761.56 45.91 32.2 $755.83 Bearish 2.76
QQQ $707.53 48.68 38.8 $708.99 Bearish 3.99
IWM $290.55 36.97 23.1 $297.51 Bearish 6.99

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 16.34 47.85 11.2 $11.06 Neutral 1.06
TNX 47.96 57.40 36.7 - - -
GLD $397.17 54.97 37.0 $344.62 Bearish 1.78
DXY 99.67 47.02 24.1 - - -
SLV $57.97 55.05 12.1 $39.00 Neutral 1.19

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.58B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.63% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.98%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.3%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 46
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 42.0%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Energy 100.0% 0/0
Health Care 77.8% 0/0
Communication Services 73.7% 0/0
Financials 58.8% 0/0
Materials 58.3% 0/0
Consumer Staples 54.5% 0/0
Technology 53.8% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 44.1% 0/0
Industrials 32.8% 0/0
Real Estate 11.5% 0/0
Utilities 10.0% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: RISING
  • WTI Crude: $90.68 (5d: +10.3%)
  • Brent Crude: $95.22 | Spread: $4.54
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.1600/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.7100/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $63.74/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $64.77
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $10.58

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.722 normal
SPY / DXY -0.226 normal
SPY / TNX -0.354 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.476 elevated

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.88
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 4,074,508.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 4,455,069.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.09 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $649.8B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $772 | Put Wall: $762 (Spot: $761.56)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
  • Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.80%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.67
  • Growth vs Value: 0.93
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.37% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,779B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,856B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,023B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,659B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,617 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $141.0 (vs 20d avg 128.27, +2.1Οƒ), floor $75.00 β€” potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
  • [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $63.74/bbl (vs 20d avg 58.05, +2.0Οƒ), floor $35.00/bbl β€” refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.469, GEX +4.6B, HY OAS 2.63%, breadth 51%.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~292h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~52h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: September
  • Average Return: -0.55%
  • Median Return: +0.30%
  • Hit Rate: 55%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓0.9% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑2.3% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (↓7.3% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (↑5.4% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓7.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (24):

[1] WTI declines to near $89.00 despite US-Iran tensions URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-declines-to-near-8900-despite-us-iran-tensions-202609020600 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 06:00:24 GMT

[2] Canadian Dollar hits fresh two-week lows amid higher yields, Fed hiking bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-hits-fresh-two-week-lows-amid-higher-yields-fed-hiking-bets-202609020558 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 05:58:08 GMT

[3] Manufacturing recovery gains uneven traction URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/manufacturing-recovery-gains-uneven-traction-202609020554 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 05:54:33 GMT

[4] Shiba Inu Price Forecast: Faces downside risks as whale selling rises URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/shiba-inu-price-forecast-faces-downside-risks-as-whale-selling-rises-202609020551 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 05:51:16 GMT

[5] BoJ's Takata says central bank need to consider a broad range of options on monetary policy response URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/bojs-takata-says-central-bank-need-to-consider-a-broad-range-of-options-on-monetary-policy-response-202609020550 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 05:50:51 GMT

[6] Inflation data strengthens case for September ECB hike URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/inflation-data-strengthens-case-for-september-ecb-hike-202609020549 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 05:49:29 GMT

[7] Indian Rupee holds onto two-month high against US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-holds-onto-two-month-high-against-us-dollar-202609020548 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 05:48:34 GMT

[8] Bessent issued warning on CNY and Iran? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/bessent-issued-warning-on-cny-and-iran-202609020546 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 05:46:36 GMT

[9] Pi Network Price Forecast: Steady recovery in PI gains mild bullish momentum URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/pi-network-price-forecast-steady-recovery-in-pi-gains-mild-bullish-momentum-202609020545 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 05:45:11 GMT

[10] Cryptocurrencies Price Prediction: Bitcoin, Uniswap & Ethereum - Asian Wrap 02 September URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-bitcoin-uniswap-ethereum-asian-wrap-02-september-202609020535 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 05:35:33 GMT

[11] Swiss Franc weakens as Fed rate hike fears lift US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-weakens-as-fed-rate-hike-fears-lift-us-dollar-202609020516 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 05:16:48 GMT

[12] Saudi Arabia Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/saudi-arabia-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202609020506 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 05:06:19 GMT

[13] Philippines Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/philippines-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202609020500 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 05:00:44 GMT

[14] United Arab Emirates Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-arab-emirates-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202609020458 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 04:58:59 GMT

[15] Pakistan Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pakistan-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202609020458 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 04:58:28 GMT

[16] AUD/USD Price Forecast: Slides to over one-week low; 0.7125 confluence holds the key URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-forecast-slides-to-over-one-week-low-07125-confluence-holds-the-key-202609020451 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 04:51:37 GMT

[17] EUR/USD Price Forecast: Weakens below 1.1600, further consolidation cannot be ruled out URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-weakens-below-11600-further-consolidation-cannot-be-ruled-out-202609020449 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 04:49:03 GMT

[18] Growth resilience takes rate cuts off the table in 2027 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/growth-resilience-takes-rate-cuts-off-the-table-in-2027-202609020440 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 04:40:38 GMT

[19] India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202609020435 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 04:35:12 GMT

[20] NZD/USD Price Forecast: New Zealand Dollar moves little following RBNZ Breman's remarks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-new-zealand-dollar-moves-little-following-rbnz-bremans-remarks-202609020432 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 04:32:24 GMT

[21] Malaysia Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/malaysia-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202609020430 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 04:30:11 GMT

[22] USD/JPY Price Forecast: Sits near late July high; bulls retain control above 160.00 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-sits-near-late-july-high-bulls-retain-control-above-16000-202609020418 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 04:18:08 GMT

[23] Gold Price Forecast: Hawkish Fed prospects drag XAU/USD further below $4,300 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-price-forecast-hawkish-fed-prospects-drag-xau-usd-further-below-4-300-202609020414 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 04:14:32 GMT

[24] Morning briefing: EUR/USD could trade within 1.1550-1.1650 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/morning-briefing-eur-usd-could-trade-within-11550-11650-202609020411 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 04:11:58 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (8):

[BREAKING] [1] Israel strikes Iran-backed Hezbollah after drone attack in southern Lebanon Time: 2026-09-02T05:52:21.209Z

[2] Bahrain says it intercepted Iranian attacks targeting cities Time: 2026-09-02T05:48:58.726Z

[3] Overnight air alerts in northern Israel were likely false alarm, IDF says Time: 2026-09-02T05:44:22.393Z

[BREAKING] [4] IRGC says it launched attacks toward bases in four regional countries Time: 2026-09-02T05:42:47.492Z

[BREAKING] [5] Peru cuts diplomatic ties, accuses Iran of escalating war Time: 2026-09-02T05:36:03.768Z

[6] Iran government denies divisions over food subsidies Time: 2026-09-02T04:52:24.464Z

[7] Iran reports US missile attacks near Ahvaz and Aghajari Time: 2026-09-02T04:29:41.117Z

[8] USS Abraham Lincoln docks in Thailand after record 250 days at sea Time: 2026-09-02T04:26:07.798Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 186 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 5 of 60 normal daily β€” 5.0% of normal
  • Throughput: 5.1% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 437
  • Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 56.7x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS295 (+490% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost