Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-02 00:01:38 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.8% (3d) | Alignment: 33% (2 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.469 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.09 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +4.6B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 51% β mixed participation |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -4.3% growth pessimism Β· real yield 2.44% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.68 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.24 normal, SPY/TNX -0.37 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.48 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.3 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.58 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 24 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.6% stable, MOVE 78 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.63% benign, NFCI -0.566 loose |
Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, inflation, and carry flash bullish against the risk-on tape β 4 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 76/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $91, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.469; GEX positive at 4.6B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.3 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $761.56 | 50 SMA $754.36 | 200 SMA $710.27 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.83
- QQQ: $707.53 | 50 SMA $711.59 | 200 SMA $655.65 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $708.99
- IWM: $290.55 | 50 SMA $297.28 | 200 SMA $271.56 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $297.51
- VIX: 16.34 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.796%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $761.56 | 45.91 | 32.2 | $755.83 | Bearish | 2.76 |
| QQQ | $707.53 | 48.68 | 38.8 | $708.99 | Bearish | 3.99 |
| IWM | $290.55 | 36.97 | 23.1 | $297.51 | Bearish | 6.99 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.34 | 47.85 | 11.2 | $11.06 | Neutral | 1.06 |
| TNX | 47.96 | 57.40 | 36.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $397.17 | 54.97 | 37.0 | $344.62 | Bearish | 1.78 |
| DXY | 99.67 | 47.02 | 24.1 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $57.97 | 55.05 | 12.1 | $39.00 | Neutral | 1.19 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.58B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.63% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.98%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.3%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 46
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 77.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 73.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 58.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 54.5% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 44.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 32.8% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 11.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $90.68 (5d: +10.3%)
- Brent Crude: $95.22 | Spread: $4.54
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1600/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.7100/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $63.74/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $64.77
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.58
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.675 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.243 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.367 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.485 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.88
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,074,508.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,455,069.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.09 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $649.8B
- Gamma Call Wall: $772 | Put Wall: $762 (Spot: $761.56)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.80%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.67
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.37% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,779B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,856B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,023B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,659B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,486 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~292h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~52h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 36 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hormuz_oil_brent_price has printed the same value (88.24) for 5 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 99 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_max_pain has printed the same value (735.0) for 45 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_put_wall has printed the same value (740.0) for 43 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.55%
- Median Return: +0.30%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β7.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.4% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (9):
[1] Gold drops to four-week low, below $4,300 as USD firms amid Fed hike bets and Iran risks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-drops-to-four-week-low-below-4-300-as-usd-firms-amid-fed-hike-bets-and-iran-risks-202609020400 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 04:00:19 GMT
[2] British Pound declines to near 1.3500 as US-Iran tensions rise
URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-declines-to-near-13500-as-us-iran-tensions-rise-202609020347
Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 03:47:01 GMT
[3] Top 3 Price Prediction: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple - BTC, ETH, XRP under pressure as momentum indicators flag early bearish signals URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/top-3-price-prediction-bitcoin-ethereum-ripple-btc-eth-xrp-under-pressure-as-momentum-indicators-flag-early-bearish-signals-202609020333 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 03:33:12 GMT
[4] United States Dollar Index hold gains above 99.50 as Treasury yields hit multi-year highs URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-hold-gains-above-9950-as-treasury-yields-hit-multi-year-highs-202609020323 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 03:23:32 GMT
[5] Crypto Overview: US-Iran tensions weigh on Bitcoin - FIL, UNI lead gains URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-overview-us-iran-tensions-weigh-on-bitcoin-fil-uni-lead-gains-202609020318 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 03:18:06 GMT
[6] Bitcoin consolidates as spot activity cools, ETF demand remains key to rally URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-consolidates-as-spot-activity-cools-etf-demand-remains-key-to-rally-202609020306 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 03:06:09 GMT
[7] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD slips below $64.00 as inflation fears increase URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-slips-below-6400-as-inflation-fears-increase-202609020236 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 02:36:53 GMT
[8] Australian Dollar surges to July 8 high vs New Zealand Dollar after Aussie GDP, RBNZ URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-surges-to-july-8-high-vs-new-zealand-dollar-after-aussie-gdp-rbnz-202609020215 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 02:15:35 GMT
[9] New Zealand Dollar plunges after RBNZ raises OCR by 25 bps to 2.75% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-after-rbnz-raises-ocr-by-25-bps-to-275-202609020214 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 02:14:17 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (5):
[1] UN Security Council to vote September 17 on Iran sanctions panel - Reuters Time: 2026-09-02T03:45:26.132Z
[2] Brent crude rises above $95 as US-Iran fighting intensifies Time: 2026-09-02T03:28:37.325Z
[3] Seven killed in US missile strikes on Iran's Khuzestan - IRNA Time: 2026-09-02T02:59:17.655Z
[4] Four commodity vessels transit Strait of Hormuz Tuesday Time: 2026-09-02T02:36:28.015Z
[5] Russia secretly helping Iran develop supersonic cruise missiles - FT Time: 2026-09-02T02:04:06.792Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 186 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 3 of 60 normal daily β 5.0% of normal
- Throughput: 4.0% of normal (0.4M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 437
- Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 50.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS475 (+850% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $8.5 billion/day economic cost