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2026-W36

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-01 22:01:30 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -1.0% (3d) | Alignment: 29% (2 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β€” Moderate divergence β€” several structural signals disagree with price

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT DIX 0.469 above 0.45 and rising β€” institutions accumulating, 0DTE PCR 1.09 balanced
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT GEX +4.6B strong suppression
Breadth βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Breadth 51% β€” mixed participation
Energy πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED Energy RISING β€” oil climbing, margin pressure building
growth_expectations πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED Copper/Gold -4.3% growth pessimism Β· real yield 2.44% restrictive
Correlations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” SPY/VIX -0.68 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.24 normal, SPY/TNX -0.37 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.48 elevated
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 16.3 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.58 dealer stress
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Stagflation score 24 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT USD/JPY 5d +0.6% stable, MOVE 78 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT HY OAS 2.63% benign, NFCI -0.566 loose

Divergence read: SPY slipping but dark pool, gamma, and inflation flash bullish against the risk-on tape β€” 5 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 76/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $91, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.469; GEX positive at 4.6B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.3 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $761.56 | 50 SMA $754.36 | 200 SMA $710.27 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.83
  • QQQ: $707.53 | 50 SMA $711.59 | 200 SMA $655.65 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $708.99
  • IWM: $290.55 | 50 SMA $297.28 | 200 SMA $271.56 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $297.51
  • VIX: 16.34 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.796%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $761.56 45.91 32.2 $755.83 Bearish 2.76
QQQ $707.53 48.68 38.8 $708.99 Bearish 3.99
IWM $290.55 36.97 23.1 $297.51 Bearish 6.99

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 16.34 47.85 11.2 $11.06 Neutral 1.06
TNX 47.96 57.40 36.7 - - -
GLD $397.17 54.97 37.0 $344.62 Bearish 1.78
DXY 99.67 47.02 24.1 - - -
SLV $57.97 55.05 12.1 $39.00 Neutral 1.19

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.58B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.63% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.98%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.3%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 46
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 42.0%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Energy 100.0% 0/0
Health Care 77.8% 0/0
Communication Services 73.7% 0/0
Financials 58.8% 0/0
Materials 58.3% 0/0
Consumer Staples 54.5% 0/0
Technology 53.8% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 44.1% 0/0
Industrials 32.8% 0/0
Real Estate 11.5% 0/0
Utilities 10.0% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: RISING
  • WTI Crude: $90.68 (5d: +10.3%)
  • Brent Crude: $95.22 | Spread: $4.54
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.1600/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.7100/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $63.74/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $64.77
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $10.58

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.675 elevated
SPY / DXY -0.243 normal
SPY / TNX -0.367 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.485 elevated

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.88
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 4,074,508.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 4,455,069.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.09 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $649.8B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $772 | Put Wall: $762 (Spot: $761.56)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
  • Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.80%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.67
  • Growth vs Value: 0.93
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.37% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,779B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,856B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,023B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,659B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $76,987 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $141.0 (vs 20d avg 127.01, +2.4Οƒ), floor $75.00 β€” potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
  • [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $63.74/bbl (vs 20d avg 57.69, +2.5Οƒ), floor $35.00/bbl β€” refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.469, GEX +4.6B, HY OAS 2.63%, breadth 51%.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: volatility_regime is STALE (~3h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [INFO] Screener: AMH β€” promotion-ready (41d on list, HIGH conviction 65/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 47% (n=2709)).
  • [INFO] Screener: GRMN β€” new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 72/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5212)). Worth a look.
  • [INFO] Screener: UNP β€” promotion-ready (91d on list, HIGH conviction 78/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5212)).
  • [INFO] Screener: UNP β€” new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 78/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5212)). Worth a look.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: September
  • Average Return: -0.55%
  • Median Return: +0.30%
  • Hit Rate: 55%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓0.9% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑2.3% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (↓7.3% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (↑5.4% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓7.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (13):

[1] New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (2.75%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-rbnz-interest-rate-decision-meets-forecasts-275-202609020200 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 02:00:07 GMT

[2] WTI advances to mid-$90.00s, fresh high since July 24 amid escalating US-Iran tensions URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-advances-to-mid-9000s-fresh-high-since-july-24-amid-escalating-us-iran-tensions-202609020148 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 01:48:55 GMT

[3] Australian Dollar rises as quarterly GDP grows in Q2 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-rises-as-quarterly-gdp-grows-in-q2-202609020147 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 01:47:17 GMT

[4] BoJ's Takata says central bank must hike rates mimbly after assessing financial conditions URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/bojs-takata-says-central-bank-must-hike-rates-mimbly-after-assessing-financial-conditions-202609020146 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 01:46:03 GMT

[5] 0.4%: Australia Q2 GDP beats estimates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/04-australia-q2-gdp-beats-estimates-202609020131 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 01:31:24 GMT

[6] Australia Gross Domestic Product (YoY) above forecasts (1.8%) in 2Q: Actual (2.1%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-gross-domestic-product-yoy-above-forecasts-18-in-2q-actual-21-202609020130 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 01:30:02 GMT

[7] Australia Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) registered at 0.4% above expectations (0.3%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-gross-domestic-product-qoq-registered-at-04-above-expectations-03-in-2q-202609020130 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 01:30:02 GMT

[8] Elliott Wave outlook: Gold Miners ETF (GDX) zigzag correction in progress [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/elliott-wave-outlook-gold-miners-etf-gdx-zigzag-correction-in-progress-video-202609020116 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 01:16:33 GMT

[9] PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7829 vs. 6.7809 previous URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-at-67829-vs-67809-previous-202609020115 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 01:15:27 GMT

[10] Japanese Yen drops to fresh low since late July vs USD on fiscal concerns and rate gap URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-drops-to-fresh-low-since-late-july-vs-usd-on-fiscal-concerns-and-rate-gap-202609020111 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 01:11:51 GMT

[11] British Pound drops as US Dollar strengthens on rising US yields, higher oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-drops-as-us-dollar-strengthens-on-rising-us-yields-higher-oil-prices-202609020102 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 01:02:31 GMT

[12] BoJ's Ueda says no comment on daily moves, markets price in high likelihood of September rate hike URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/bojs-ueda-says-no-comment-on-daily-moves-markets-price-in-high-likelihood-of-september-rate-hike-202609020019 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 00:19:08 GMT

[13] Japan's Katayama: Debt expansion is global trend, fiscal policy targeting growth and sustainability URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japans-katayama-debt-expansion-is-global-trend-fiscal-policy-targeting-growth-and-sustainability-202609020014 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 00:14:06 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (7):

[1] CENTCOM responds to Iranian state media reports of wedding casualties near Sirik Time: 2026-09-02T01:44:50.029Z

[2] Trump rejects new Iran talks, touts US position in Hormuz Time: 2026-09-02T01:29:34.219Z

[3] Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya military headquarters warns countries aiding US forces Time: 2026-09-02T00:43:46.689Z

[BREAKING] [4] US strikes two Iranian government tankers - Axios Time: 2026-09-02T00:27:56.881Z

[5] Bahrain says air defenses intercept Iranian drones Time: 2026-09-02T00:24:48.802Z

[6] IRGC says missile-drone strike hit US facilities in Erbil Time: 2026-09-02T00:20:07.501Z

[7] G20 finance leaders, except China, back 'free, safe' Hormuz transit Time: 2026-09-01T23:55:36.904Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 185 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 5 of 60 normal daily β€” 8.3% of normal
  • Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 437
  • Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 56.7x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS185 (+270% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost