Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-01 08:01:34 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 33% (2 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.468 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.15 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +5.0B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 51% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -7.4% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.42% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.61 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.18 normal, SPY/TNX -0.33 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.40 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 14.9 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.78 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 21 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.4% stable, MOVE 75 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.60% benign, NFCI -0.566 loose |
Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, inflation, and carry flash bullish against the risk-on tape β 4 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 80/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.468; GEX positive at 5.0B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $767.39 | 50 SMA $753.96 | 200 SMA $709.85 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.71
- QQQ: $716.85 | 50 SMA $712.06 | 200 SMA $655.17 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $712.4
- IWM: $293.90 | 50 SMA $297.31 | 200 SMA $271.31 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $297.64
- VIX: 14.92 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.758%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $767.39 | 45.72 | 32.7 | $755.71 | Bearish | 1.74 |
| QQQ | $716.85 | 46.65 | 39.0 | $712.40 | Neutral | 0.80 |
| IWM | $293.90 | 41.96 | 22.6 | $297.64 | Bearish | 4.62 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.92 | 43.60 | 12.9 | $11.06 | Neutral | 1.19 |
| TNX | 47.58 | 52.20 | 45.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $408.16 | 54.17 | 38.5 | $404.57 | Neutral | 0.84 |
| DXY | 99.41 | 42.97 | 31.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $60.14 | 51.86 | 13.0 | $44.00 | Bearish | 0.49 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.468
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.03B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.60% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.41% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.3%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 13
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.1%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.6%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 77.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 73.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 58.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 54.5% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 44.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 32.8% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 11.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $86.31 (5d: +4.8%)
- Brent Crude: $88.53 | Spread: $2.22
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1100/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.4400/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $62.93/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $63.96
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.54
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.611 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.183 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.33 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.396 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 75.32
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,153,015.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,624,093.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.15 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $519.8B
- Gamma Call Wall: $770 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $767.39)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.76%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.03 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.41
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.30% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.31%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 21/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $6.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,773B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,872B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,034B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,679B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $78,036 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.468, GEX +5.0B, HY OAS 2.60%, breadth 51%.
- [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -7.4% β growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~268h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.36%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β7.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.4% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (22):
[1] Brazil Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 2%, above forecasts (1.8%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazil-gross-domestic-product-yoy-came-in-at-2-above-forecasts-18-in-2q-202609011200 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 12:00:01 GMT
[2] Brazil Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at 0.5%, above expectations (0.4%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazil-gross-domestic-product-qoq-came-in-at-05-above-expectations-04-in-2q-202609011200 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 12:00:01 GMT
[3] Ripple Price Forecast: XRP risks extending decline as fragile technical structure persists URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ripple-price-forecast-xrp-risks-extending-decline-as-fragile-technical-structure-persists-202609011200 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT
[4] Indian Rupee: Strong GDP underpins higher INR yields - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-strong-gdp-underpins-higher-inr-yields-mufg-202609011158 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 11:58:19 GMT
[5] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD extends reversal below $4.400 amid Fed hawkish repricing URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-extends-reversal-below-4400-amid-fed-hawkish-repricing-202609011150 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 11:50:51 GMT
[6] Japanese Yen: Policy pressure and FX path - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-policy-pressure-and-fx-path-rabobank-202609011146 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 11:46:31 GMT
[7] Bond yields continue their ascent on inflationary concerns URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/bond-yields-continue-their-ascent-on-inflationary-concerns-202609011145 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 11:45:46 GMT
[8] EUR/USD Price Forecast: Upbeat US Dollar stresses on major currency pair URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-upbeat-us-dollar-stresses-on-major-currency-pair-202609011143 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 11:43:08 GMT
[9] US Dollar: September hike odds stay elevated - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-september-hike-odds-stay-elevated-bbh-202609011131 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 11:31:52 GMT
[10] Gold weakens below $4,400 as US Treasury yields surge, Fed rate hike bets rise URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-weakens-below-4-400-as-us-treasury-yields-surge-fed-rate-hike-bets-rise-202609011123 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 11:23:02 GMT
[11] Cryptocurrencies Price Prediction: BONK, Bitcoin & Crypto - European Wrap 1 September URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-bonk-bitcoin-crypto-european-wrap-1-september-202609011117 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 11:17:49 GMT
[12] Eurozone inflation hits a Middle East war high, but core pressures remain contained URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eurozone-inflation-hits-a-middle-east-war-high-but-core-pressures-remain-contained-202609011112 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 11:12:22 GMT
[13] Canadian Dollar: Trade tensions and extended BoC hold - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-trade-tensions-and-extended-boc-hold-td-securities-202609011111 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 11:11:45 GMT
[14] Silver drops below $65 as hawkish Fed bets weigh on XAG/USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-drops-below-65-as-hawkish-fed-bets-weigh-on-xag-usd-202609011107 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 11:07:35 GMT
[15] New Zealand Dollar slumps against US Dollar amid firm hawkish Fed bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-slumps-against-us-dollar-amid-firm-hawkish-fed-bets-202609011106 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 11:06:12 GMT
[16] Gold at two-week low: Geopolitical risks rise again URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-at-two-week-low-geopolitical-risks-rise-again-202609011049 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 10:49:58 GMT
[17] Iran attack drags down market URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/iran-attack-drags-down-market-202609011042 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 10:42:09 GMT
[18] Euro extends losses against British Pound as Eurozone inflation fails to impress URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-extends-losses-against-british-pound-as-eurozone-inflation-fails-to-impress-202609011038 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 10:38:55 GMT
[19] Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP struggle to extend gains despite ETF inflows URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-today-bitcoin-ethereum-xrp-struggle-to-extend-gains-despite-etf-inflows-202609011020 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 10:20:50 GMT
[20] Making trading a respected profession: Nick Cipher's perspective on transparency, ethics, and accountability URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/making-trading-a-respected-profession-nick-ciphers-perspective-on-transparency-ethics-and-accountability-202609011015 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 10:15:45 GMT
[21] WTI Oil climbs toward $87 as US-Iran tensions threaten supply URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-oil-climbs-toward-87-as-us-iran-tensions-threaten-supply-202609011003 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 10:03:27 GMT
[22] Euro: Rebound capped by nearby resistance against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-rebound-capped-by-nearby-resistance-against-us-dollar-uob-202609011002 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 10:02:45 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (4):
[1] Iran says Munir brought no sign of progress or setback Time: 2026-09-01T11:24:51.948Z
[2] Islamabad MoU offers best path to lasting peace, Pakistan says Time: 2026-09-01T10:39:11.432Z
[3] Military pressure undermines agreements and diplomacy, Pezeshkian says Time: 2026-09-01T10:23:58.550Z
[4] Father of slain Iran protester sentenced to 10 more years Time: 2026-09-01T10:22:13.185Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 185 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 5 of 60 normal daily β 8.3% of normal
- Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 185
- Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 63.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS285 (+470% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost