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2026-W36

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-01 06:01:39 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 33% (2 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β€” Moderate divergence β€” several structural signals disagree with price

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED DIX 0.468 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.15 put-heavy
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT GEX +5.0B strong suppression
Breadth βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Breadth 51% β€” mixed participation
Energy βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Energy ELEVATED β€” watch for transmission but not yet bearish
growth_expectations πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED Copper/Gold -7.4% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.42% restrictive
Correlations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” SPY/VIX -0.61 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.18 normal, SPY/TNX -0.33 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.40 elevated
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 14.9 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.78 dealer stress
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Stagflation score 21 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT USD/JPY 5d +0.4% stable, MOVE 75 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β€” hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT HY OAS 2.60% benign, NFCI -0.566 loose

Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, inflation, and carry flash bullish against the risk-on tape β€” 4 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 80/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.468; GEX positive at 5.0B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $767.39 | 50 SMA $753.96 | 200 SMA $709.85 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.71
  • QQQ: $716.85 | 50 SMA $712.06 | 200 SMA $655.17 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $712.4
  • IWM: $293.90 | 50 SMA $297.31 | 200 SMA $271.31 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $297.64
  • VIX: 14.92 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.758%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $767.39 45.72 32.7 $755.71 Bearish 1.74
QQQ $716.85 46.65 39.0 $712.40 Neutral 0.80
IWM $293.90 41.96 22.6 $297.64 Bearish 4.62

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 14.92 43.60 12.9 $11.06 Neutral 1.19
TNX 47.58 52.20 45.7 - - -
GLD $408.16 54.17 38.5 $404.57 Neutral 0.84
DXY 99.41 42.97 31.5 - - -
SLV $60.14 51.86 13.0 $44.00 Bearish 0.49

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.468
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.03B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.60% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.97%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.41% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.3%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 13
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 32.1%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 41.6%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Energy 100.0% 0/0
Health Care 77.8% 0/0
Communication Services 73.7% 0/0
Financials 58.8% 0/0
Materials 58.3% 0/0
Consumer Staples 54.5% 0/0
Technology 53.8% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 44.1% 0/0
Industrials 32.8% 0/0
Real Estate 11.5% 0/0
Utilities 10.0% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: ELEVATED
  • WTI Crude: $86.31 (5d: +4.8%)
  • Brent Crude: $88.53 | Spread: $2.22
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.1100/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.4400/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $62.93/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $63.96
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $10.54

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.611 elevated
SPY / DXY -0.183 normal
SPY / TNX -0.33 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.396 elevated

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 75.32
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 3,153,015.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 3,624,093.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.15 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $519.8B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $772 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $767.39)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
  • Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.76%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.03 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.41
  • Growth vs Value: 0.93
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.30% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.31%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 21/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $6.7B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,773B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,872B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,034B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,679B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,881 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.468, GEX +5.0B, HY OAS 2.60%, breadth 51%.
  • [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -7.4% β€” growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β€” systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~268h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: August
  • Average Return: +0.36%
  • Median Return: +1.41%
  • Hit Rate: 65%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.9% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑2.3% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (↓7.3% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.3% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (↑5.4% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓7.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (29):

[1] US JOLTS Job Openings set to show a steady labor market URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-jolts-job-openings-set-to-show-a-steady-labor-market-202609011000 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 10:00:00 GMT

[2] Bitcoin Price Forecast: Bitcoin kicks off September with strength after 25% August surge URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-price-forecast-bitcoin-kicks-off-september-with-strength-after-25-august-surge-202609010956 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 09:56:10 GMT

[3] US Dollar: Jackson Hole keeps hike risk alive - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-jackson-hole-keeps-hike-risk-alive-mufg-202609010953 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 09:53:24 GMT

[4] Germany 5-y Note Auction climbed from previous 2.93% to 3.09% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-5-y-note-auction-climbed-from-previous-293-to-309-202609010950 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 09:50:51 GMT

[5] Brazilian Real: Fiscal risks weigh on currency - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazilian-real-fiscal-risks-weigh-on-currency-commerzbank-202609010939 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 09:39:33 GMT

[6] Bonk Price Forecast: BONK eyes breakout rally as retail demand rises URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bonk-price-forecast-bonk-eyes-breakout-rally-as-retail-demand-rises-202609010938 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 09:38:25 GMT

[7] Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202609010932 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 09:32:47 GMT

[8] Polish Zloty: Fiscal risks cap gains against Euro - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/polish-zloty-fiscal-risks-cap-gains-against-euro-societe-generale-202609010927 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 09:27:10 GMT

[9] CEE FX: Hawkish repricing supports regional currencies - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/cee-fx-hawkish-repricing-supports-regional-currencies-ing-202609010917 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 09:17:01 GMT

[10] Dow Jones futures fall as surging oil prices stoke inflation concerns URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-fall-as-surging-oil-prices-stoke-inflation-concerns-202609010916 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 09:16:12 GMT

[11] USD/JPY Price Forecast: 20-day EMA becomes dynamic support now URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-20-day-ema-becomes-dynamic-support-now-202609010915 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 09:15:34 GMT

[12] Euro holds losses against Canadian Dollar following Eurozone HICP data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-holds-losses-against-canadian-dollar-following-eurozone-hicp-data-202609010913 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 09:13:26 GMT

[13] Japanese Yen: Consolidation before potential push to 160.55 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-consolidation-before-potential-push-to-16055-against-us-dollar-uob-202609010908 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 09:08:28 GMT

[14] Sweden: Inflation forecast - August inflation preview URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/sweden-inflation-forecast-august-inflation-preview-202609010905 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 09:05:09 GMT

[15] US Dollar Index Price Forecast: DXY eyes 99.75 confluence hurdle amid Fed bets, Iran risks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-price-forecast-dxy-eyes-9975-confluence-hurdle-amid-fed-bets-iran-risks-202609010904 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 09:04:29 GMT

[16] Eurozone flash HICP rises 3.3% YoY in August, as expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-flash-hicp-rises-33-yoy-in-august-as-expected-202609010902 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 09:02:26 GMT

[17] Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) increased to 0.4% in August from previous 0.2% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-mom-increased-to-04-in-august-from-previous-02-202609010901 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 09:01:37 GMT

[18] Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) fell from previous 0.2% to 0% in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-mom-fell-from-previous-02-to-0-in-august-202609010901 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 09:01:34 GMT

[19] Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) meets expectations (3.2%) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-consumer-price-index-eu-norm-yoy-meets-expectations-32-in-august-202609010901 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 09:01:14 GMT

[20] Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM): 0.1% (August) vs -1% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-consumer-price-index-eu-norm-mom-01-august-vs-1-202609010901 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 09:01:11 GMT

[21] Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) rose from previous 2.9% to 3.3% in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-consumer-price-index-yoy-rose-from-previous-29-to-33-in-august-202609010901 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 09:01:10 GMT

[22] Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.5%, above expectations (0.2%) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-consumer-price-index-mom-came-in-at-05-above-expectations-02-in-august-202609010901 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 09:01:06 GMT

[23] Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) up to 0.2% in August from previous 0% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-core-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-mom-up-to-02-in-august-from-previous-0-202609010900 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 09:00:56 GMT

[24] Eurozone Unemployment Rate above forecasts (6.3%) in July: Actual (6.4%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-unemployment-rate-above-forecasts-63-in-july-actual-64-202609010900 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 09:00:30 GMT

[25] Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) registered at 2.4%, below expectations (2.5%) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-core-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-yoy-registered-at-24-below-expectations-25-in-august-202609010900 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 09:00:19 GMT

[26] Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) in line with expectations (3.3%) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-yoy-in-line-with-expectations-33-in-august-202609010900 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 09:00:14 GMT

[27] Indian Rupee: RBI tightening path seen shallow - Standard Chartered URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-rbi-tightening-path-seen-shallow-standard-chartered-202609010900 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 09:00:10 GMT

[28] ISM Manufacturing PMI set to signal steady expansion in US factory activity URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ism-manufacturing-pmi-set-to-signal-steady-expansion-in-us-factory-activity-202609010900 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 09:00:00 GMT

[29] Spain 12-Month Letras Auction: 2.832% vs 2.663% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-12-month-letras-auction-2832-vs-2663-202609010854 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 08:54:26 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (8):

[1] Iranian MP calls for preemptive attacks on US interests Time: 2026-09-01T09:34:47.872Z

[2] Lawmaker says renewed war with Iran would be 'costly' for US Time: 2026-09-01T09:30:47.276Z

[3] Video: Iran police fire at job-seeking youths in southern city Time: 2026-09-01T09:17:38.129Z

[4] Regional countries helping US are involved in war on Iran, MP says Time: 2026-09-01T09:14:49.015Z

[5] Dollar rises above 2.12 million rials on Iran's open market Time: 2026-09-01T09:04:36.823Z

[6] Failure to offer a future is driving Pahlavi support - Khomeini institute outlet Time: 2026-09-01T09:02:01.466Z

[7] Iran science minister calls TOEFL restrictions 'Stone Age behavior' Time: 2026-09-01T08:48:45.516Z

[8] Iran presidency denies order for longer industrial power cuts Time: 2026-09-01T08:19:31.671Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 185 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily β€” 17.0% of normal
  • Throughput: 18.0% of normal (1.9M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 180
  • Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 56.7x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS420 (+740% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost