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2026-W36

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-01 04:01:15 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 33% (2 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β€” Moderate divergence β€” several structural signals disagree with price

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED DIX 0.468 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.15 put-heavy
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT GEX +5.0B strong suppression
Breadth βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Breadth 51% β€” mixed participation
Energy βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Energy ELEVATED β€” watch for transmission but not yet bearish
growth_expectations πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED Copper/Gold -7.4% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.42% restrictive
Correlations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” SPY/VIX -0.61 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.18 normal, SPY/TNX -0.33 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.40 elevated
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 14.9 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.78 dealer stress
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Stagflation score 21 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT USD/JPY 5d +0.4% stable, MOVE 75 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β€” hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT HY OAS 2.60% benign, NFCI -0.566 loose

Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, inflation, and carry flash bullish against the risk-on tape β€” 4 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 80/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.468; GEX positive at 5.0B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $767.39 | 50 SMA $753.96 | 200 SMA $709.85 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.71
  • QQQ: $716.85 | 50 SMA $712.06 | 200 SMA $655.17 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $712.4
  • IWM: $293.90 | 50 SMA $297.31 | 200 SMA $271.31 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $297.64
  • VIX: 14.92 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.758%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $767.39 45.72 32.7 $755.71 Bearish 1.74
QQQ $716.85 46.65 39.0 $712.40 Neutral 0.80
IWM $293.90 41.96 22.6 $297.64 Bearish 4.62

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 14.92 43.60 12.9 $11.06 Neutral 1.19
TNX 47.58 52.20 45.7 - - -
GLD $408.16 54.17 38.5 $404.57 Neutral 0.84
DXY 99.41 42.97 31.5 - - -
SLV $60.14 51.86 13.0 $44.00 Bearish 0.49

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.468
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.03B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.60% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.97%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.41% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.3%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 13
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 32.1%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 41.6%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Energy 100.0% 0/0
Health Care 77.8% 0/0
Communication Services 73.7% 0/0
Financials 58.8% 0/0
Materials 58.3% 0/0
Consumer Staples 54.5% 0/0
Technology 53.8% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 44.1% 0/0
Industrials 32.8% 0/0
Real Estate 11.5% 0/0
Utilities 10.0% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: ELEVATED
  • WTI Crude: $86.31 (5d: +4.8%)
  • Brent Crude: $88.53 | Spread: $2.22
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.1100/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.4400/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $62.93/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $63.96
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $10.54

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.611 elevated
SPY / DXY -0.183 normal
SPY / TNX -0.33 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.396 elevated

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 75.32
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 3,153,015.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 3,624,093.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.15 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $519.8B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $772 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $767.39)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
  • Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.76%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.03 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.41
  • Growth vs Value: 0.93
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.30% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.31%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 21/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $6.7B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,773B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,872B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,034B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,679B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $78,635 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.468, GEX +5.0B, HY OAS 2.60%, breadth 51%.
  • [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -7.4% β€” growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β€” systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~268h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: August
  • Average Return: +0.36%
  • Median Return: +1.41%
  • Hit Rate: 65%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.9% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑2.3% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (↓7.3% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.3% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (↑5.4% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓7.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (28):

[1] Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 54.3 to 54.4 in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/greece-sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-climbed-from-previous-543-to-544-in-august-202609010800 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 08:00:15 GMT

[2] Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.7, below expectations (52.8) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-hcob-manufacturing-pmi-came-in-at-527-below-expectations-528-in-august-202609010800 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 08:00:15 GMT

[3] GBP/USD Price outlook: British Pound/US Dollar navigating between arc levels URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gbp-usd-price-outlook-british-pound-us-dollar-navigating-between-arc-levels-202609010758 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 07:58:53 GMT

[4] NOVO_B price outlook: Novo Nordisk tests 0.786 Arc - Awaiting directional confirmation URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/novo-b-price-outlook-novo-nordisk-tests-0786-arc-awaiting-directional-confirmation-202609010758 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 07:58:17 GMT

[5] Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 54.3 above expectations (54.1) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-hcob-manufacturing-pmi-registered-at-543-above-expectations-541-in-august-202609010755 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 07:55:05 GMT

[6] Australian Dollar: Short-term pullback within broader uptrend against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-short-term-pullback-within-broader-uptrend-against-us-dollar-uob-202609010753 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 07:53:06 GMT

[7] France HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.1, below expectations (51.5) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-hcob-manufacturing-pmi-came-in-at-511-below-expectations-515-in-august-202609010752 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 07:52:45 GMT

[8] The centre of gravity in retail trading has moved URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/the-centre-of-gravity-in-retail-trading-has-moved-202609010746 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 07:46:34 GMT

[9] Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI below expectations (51.5) in August: Actual (49.6) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-hcob-manufacturing-pmi-below-expectations-515-in-august-actual-496-202609010745 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 07:45:10 GMT

[10] Euro: Proactive ECB seen as supportive - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-proactive-ecb-seen-as-supportive-commerzbank-202609010740 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 07:40:58 GMT

[11] Dollar breakout in focus - Can markets hold their bullish trend? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/dollar-breakout-in-focus-can-markets-hold-their-bullish-trend-202609010735 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 07:35:59 GMT

[12] NZD/USD Price Forecast: Flirts with ascending trend-line near 0.5900 as traders eye RBNZ URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-flirts-with-ascending-trend-line-near-05900-as-traders-eye-rbnz-202609010735 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 07:35:26 GMT

[13] September risks: Rate hikes, seasonal concerns and rising bond yields to start the month URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/september-risks-rate-hikes-seasonal-concerns-and-rising-bond-yields-to-start-the-month-202609010731 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 07:31:56 GMT

[14] Switzerland SVME - Purchasing Managers' Index registered at 57.1 above expectations (53.5) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/switzerland-svme-purchasing-managers-index-registered-at-571-above-expectations-535-in-august-202609010730 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 07:30:01 GMT

[15] Japanese Yen: BoJ hike expectations shape FX - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-boj-hike-expectations-shape-fx-mufg-202609010728 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 07:28:02 GMT

[16] AUD/USD Price Forecast: Rising 20-day EMA backs more upside URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-forecast-rising-20-day-ema-backs-more-upside-202609010723 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 07:23:21 GMT

[17] Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 49.5, below expectations (50.1) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-hcob-manufacturing-pmi-registered-at-495-below-expectations-501-in-august-202609010715 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 07:15:05 GMT

[18] Austria Unemployment Rate: 7.2% (August) vs 6.9% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/austria-unemployment-rate-72-august-vs-69-202609010711 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 07:11:33 GMT

[19] Austria Unemployment: 311.4K (August) vs 298.9K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/austria-unemployment-3114k-august-vs-2989k-202609010711 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 07:11:29 GMT

[20] Brent Oil: Geopolitics delay supply recovery - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-oil-geopolitics-delay-supply-recovery-ocbc-202609010709 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 07:09:49 GMT

[21] Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD looks for direction above key support at $65.50 area URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecasts-xag-usd-looks-for-direction-above-key-support-at-6550-area-202609010709 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 07:09:22 GMT

[22] Euro edges lower against British Pound as Germany's Retail Sales fall more than expected in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-edges-lower-against-british-pound-as-germanys-retail-sales-fall-more-than-expected-in-july-202609010654 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 06:54:50 GMT

[23] Equities: Geopolitics and yields pressure stocks - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-geopolitics-and-yields-pressure-stocks-deutsche-bank-202609010652 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 06:52:11 GMT

[24] Oil and Gold: Price review for the week ahead URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/oil-and-gold-price-review-for-the-week-ahead-202609010651 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 06:51:12 GMT

[25] British Pound: Downside risk focuses on 1.3480 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-downside-risk-focuses-on-13480-against-us-dollar-uob-202609010647 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 06:47:23 GMT

[26] Oil jumps and yields climb as US-Iran tensions flare up URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/oil-jumps-and-yields-climb-as-us-iran-tensions-flare-up-202609010646 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 06:46:01 GMT

[27] Swiss Franc moves little following Real Retail Sales data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-moves-little-following-real-retail-sales-data-202609010640 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 06:40:57 GMT

[28] Bond markets again show a long series of "highest yield since" headlines URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/bond-markets-again-show-a-long-series-of-highest-yield-since-headlines-202609010639 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 06:39:35 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (10):

[1] Trump shares report highlighting threat of forceful response to Iran Time: 2026-09-01T07:54:39.209Z

[2] EU's Kallas says Hormuz must remain free of tolls, fees Time: 2026-09-01T07:53:56.948Z

[3] Iran blames US sanctions as dollar reaches 2.1 million rials Time: 2026-09-01T07:42:29.942Z

[4] Air defense chief says Iran developing new systems after wartime use Time: 2026-09-01T07:36:50.100Z

[5] Iranian newspaper mocks Trump over AI video of attack on Kharg Time: 2026-09-01T07:32:42.320Z

[6] Central bank says Iran has currency reserves, ready to inject $2 billion Time: 2026-09-01T07:31:59.097Z

[7] Video: Long lines form at Mashhad gas station Time: 2026-09-01T07:19:05.254Z

[8] Iran air defense forces deployed at more than 3,800 sites Time: 2026-09-01T07:14:29.522Z

[9] Foreign Ministry calls for unified Iran narrative abroad Time: 2026-09-01T07:13:42.693Z

[10] IRGC will confront unauthorized ships in Hormuz, Iranian MP says Time: 2026-09-01T06:47:07.438Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 185 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 3 of 60 normal daily β€” 5.0% of normal
  • Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 0
  • Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 60.0x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS225 (+350% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $8.5 billion/day economic cost