Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-01 02:01:41 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 33% (2 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.468 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.15 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +5.0B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 51% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -7.4% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.42% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.61 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.18 normal, SPY/TNX -0.33 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.40 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 14.9 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.78 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 21 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.4% stable, MOVE 75 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.60% benign, NFCI -0.566 loose |
Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, inflation, and carry flash bullish against the risk-on tape β 4 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 80/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.468; GEX positive at 5.0B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $767.39 | 50 SMA $753.96 | 200 SMA $709.85 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.71
- QQQ: $716.85 | 50 SMA $712.06 | 200 SMA $655.17 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $712.4
- IWM: $293.90 | 50 SMA $297.31 | 200 SMA $271.31 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $297.64
- VIX: 14.92 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.758%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $767.39 | 45.72 | 32.7 | $755.71 | Bearish | 1.74 |
| QQQ | $716.85 | 46.65 | 39.0 | $712.40 | Neutral | 0.80 |
| IWM | $293.90 | 41.96 | 22.6 | $297.64 | Bearish | 4.62 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.92 | 43.60 | 12.9 | $11.06 | Neutral | 1.19 |
| TNX | 47.58 | 52.20 | 45.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $408.16 | 54.17 | 38.5 | $404.57 | Neutral | 0.84 |
| DXY | 99.41 | 42.97 | 31.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $60.14 | 51.86 | 13.0 | $44.00 | Bearish | 0.49 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.468
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.03B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.60% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.41% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.3%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 13
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.1%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.6%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 77.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 73.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 58.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 54.5% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 44.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 32.8% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 11.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $86.31 (5d: +4.8%)
- Brent Crude: $88.53 | Spread: $2.22
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1100/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.4400/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $62.93/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $63.96
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.54
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.611 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.183 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.33 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.396 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 75.32
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,153,015.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,624,093.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.15 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $519.8B
- Gamma Call Wall: $772 | Put Wall: $767 (Spot: $767.39)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.76%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.03 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.41
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.30% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.31%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 21/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $6.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,773B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,872B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,034B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,679B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $79,103 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.468, GEX +5.0B, HY OAS 2.60%, breadth 51%.
- [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -7.4% β growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~268h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.36%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β7.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.4% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (29):
[1] United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices s.a (MoM) registered at 0.2% above expectations (0.1%) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-nationwide-housing-prices-sa-mom-registered-at-02-above-expectations-01-in-august-202609010600 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 06:00:09 GMT
[2] United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY) below expectations (2%) in August: Actual (1.6%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-nationwide-housing-prices-nsa-yoy-below-expectations-2-in-august-actual-16-202609010600 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 06:00:08 GMT
[3] Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 48.8 (August) vs previous 50.7 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/russia-sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-488-august-vs-previous-507-202609010600 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 06:00:07 GMT
[4] iFX EXPO Asia 2026: Hong Kong set to welcome 5,000+ global trading and fintech professionals this October URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/ifx-expo-asia-2026-hong-kong-set-to-welcome-5-000-global-trading-and-fintech-professionals-this-october-202609010600 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 06:00:00 GMT
[5] Euro area inflation in focus as national data reveals muted core momentum URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/euro-area-inflation-in-focus-as-national-data-reveals-muted-core-momentum-202609010558 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 05:58:28 GMT
[6] United States Dollar Index edges up to near 99.50, supported by higher bond yields URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-edges-up-to-near-9950-supported-by-higher-bond-yields-202609010548 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 05:48:15 GMT
[7] Hyperliquid Price Forecast: HYPE gains as US expansion talks, institutional demand boost sentiment URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/hyperliquid-price-forecast-hype-gains-as-us-expansion-talks-institutional-demand-boost-sentiment-202609010545 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 05:45:51 GMT
[8] Indian Rupee hits fresh two-month high against US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-hits-fresh-two-month-high-against-us-dollar-202609010543 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 05:43:40 GMT
[9] Morning briefing: The US treasury yields continue to move up sharply URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/morning-briefing-the-us-treasury-yields-continue-to-move-up-sharply-202609010541 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 05:41:02 GMT
[10] BlackRock drives $217M Bitcoin ETF rebound as altcoin funds continue streaks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/blackrock-drives-217m-bitcoin-etf-rebound-as-altcoin-funds-continue-streaks-202609010535 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 05:35:15 GMT
[11] Cryptocurrencies Price Prediction: Ripple, Cardano & Bitcoin - Asian Wrap 1 September URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-ripple-cardano-bitcoin-asian-wrap-1-september-202609010525 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 05:25:19 GMT
[12] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Declines below 1.3550, while maintaining bullish bias above 100-day SMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-declines-below-13550-while-maintaining-bullish-bias-above-100-day-sma-202609010521 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 05:21:45 GMT
[13] Gold and Silver recover some losses [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-and-silver-recover-some-losses-video-202609010514 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 05:14:56 GMT
[14] Saudi Arabia Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/saudi-arabia-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202609010506 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 05:06:50 GMT
[15] Indonesian Rupiah declines despite higher August inflation URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesian-rupiah-declines-despite-higher-august-inflation-202609010506 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 05:06:43 GMT
[16] Philippines Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/philippines-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202609010501 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 05:01:13 GMT
[17] India HSBC Manufacturing PMI below expectations (52.9) in August: Actual (52.8) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-hsbc-manufacturing-pmi-below-expectations-529-in-august-actual-528-202609010501 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 05:01:06 GMT
[18] Japan Consumer Confidence Index came in at 35.5, above forecasts (35) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-consumer-confidence-index-came-in-at-355-above-forecasts-35-in-august-202609010500 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 05:00:14 GMT
[19] WTI Price Forecast: Climbs above $86.00 as 100-day SMA breakout comes into play URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-price-forecast-climbs-above-8600-as-100-day-sma-breakout-comes-into-play-202609010457 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 04:57:36 GMT
[20] United Arab Emirates Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-arab-emirates-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202609010456 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 04:56:41 GMT
[21] Pakistan Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pakistan-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202609010445 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 04:45:39 GMT
[22] Indonesia Imports above expectations (24.1%) in July: Actual (27.02%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesia-imports-above-expectations-241-in-july-actual-2702-202609010443 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 04:43:30 GMT
[23] Indonesia Trade Balance above expectations ($-0.3B) in July: Actual ($0.13B) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesia-trade-balance-above-expectations-03b-in-july-actual-013b-202609010443 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 04:43:23 GMT
[24] India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202609010435 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 04:35:46 GMT
[25] Netherlands, The Retail Sales (YoY) dipped from previous 2.9% to 2.8% in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/netherlands-the-retail-sales-yoy-dipped-from-previous-29-to-28-in-july-202609010434 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 04:34:15 GMT
[26] Malaysia Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/malaysia-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202609010430 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 04:30:31 GMT
[27] Indonesia Inflation (YoY) above expectations (3.13%) in August: Actual (3.19%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesia-inflation-yoy-above-expectations-313-in-august-actual-319-202609010422 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 04:22:33 GMT
[28] Indonesia Inflation (MoM) came in at 0.21%, above expectations (0.2%) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesia-inflation-mom-came-in-at-021-above-expectations-02-in-august-202609010422 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 04:22:32 GMT
[29] Indonesia Core Inflation (YoY) registered at 2.92% above expectations (2.8%) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesia-core-inflation-yoy-registered-at-292-above-expectations-28-in-august-202609010422 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 04:22:32 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (3):
[1] Iran will reciprocate if US returns to Islamabad commitments, Pezeshkian says Time: 2026-09-01T05:14:19.740Z
[2] Iranian and Chinese foreign ministers meet in Kyrgyzstan Time: 2026-09-01T04:28:24.311Z
[3] Iranian and Pakistani foreign ministers meet in Kyrgyzstan Time: 2026-09-01T04:18:03.157Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 185 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 5 of 60 normal daily β 8.3% of normal
- Throughput: 8.3% of normal (0.8M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 320
- Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 58.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS120 (+140% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost