Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-01 08:32:11 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.9% (3d) | Alignment: 33% (2 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.468 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.15 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +5.0B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 51% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -9.8% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.42% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.61 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.18 normal, SPY/TNX -0.33 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.40 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.9 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.45 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 21 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.6% stable, MOVE 75 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.60% benign, NFCI -0.566 loose |
Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, inflation, and carry flash bullish against the risk-on tape β 4 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 80/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.468; GEX positive at 5.0B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: ELAN, PFE, EL
- Shorts: BBY, WTW
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 13% (n=200) | 3d 36% (n=200) | 5d 34% (n=200)
- Screener Board Record: 296 closed (hit rate 48%) Β· 160 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $762.22 | 50 SMA $754.36 | 200 SMA $710.27 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.8
- QQQ: $708.30 | 50 SMA $711.59 | 200 SMA $655.65 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $712.44
- IWM: $292.11 | 50 SMA $297.28 | 200 SMA $271.56 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $297.52
- VIX: 15.88 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.788%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $762.22 | 45.91 | 32.2 | $755.80 | Neutral | 1.08 |
| QQQ | $708.30 | 48.68 | 38.8 | $712.44 | Neutral | 0.86 |
| IWM | $292.11 | 36.97 | 23.1 | $297.52 | Bearish | 2.09 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.88 | 47.85 | 11.2 | $11.06 | Neutral | 1.21 |
| TNX | 47.88 | 57.40 | 36.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $400.57 | 54.97 | 37.0 | $404.63 | Neutral | 0.74 |
| DXY | 99.62 | 46.16 | 23.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $58.74 | 55.05 | 12.1 | $44.00 | Neutral | 0.69 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.468
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.03B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.60% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.41% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.3%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 13
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.1%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.6%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 77.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 73.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 58.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 54.5% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 44.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 32.8% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 11.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $87.68 (5d: +6.6%)
- Brent Crude: $92.12 | Spread: $4.44
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1100/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.5200/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $62.68/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $63.96
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.54
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.611 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.183 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.33 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.396 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 75.32
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.15 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $519.8B
- Gamma Call Wall: $770 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $762.22)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.79%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.62
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.30% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.31%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 21/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $6.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,773B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,872B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,034B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,679B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,875 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $62.68/bbl (vs 20d avg 57.69, +2.0Ο), floor $35.00/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.468, GEX +5.0B, HY OAS 2.60%, breadth 51%.
- [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -9.8% β growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] AI-1 provider drift: 4 consecutive AI-1 reads were NOT served by the configured primary 'opencode_go' (threshold 3). Served by: anthropic (model=claude-opus-4-8). The primary is failing silently β the read looks correct but the flat-subscription path is re-metering against the Anthropic credit.
- [CRITICAL] AI-1 read is dead: 6 consecutive AI-1 reads could not be parsed (threshold 2). model=claude-opus-4-8, glm-5.2 stop_reason=max_tokens, end_turn. stop_reason=max_tokens means the reply was TRUNCATED β a reasoning model burning the output budget is the known cause; check OPENCODE_GO_REASONING_EFFORT / OPENCODE_GO_MAX_TOKENS.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~268h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.36%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β7.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.4% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (7):
[1] Chile IMACEC below forecasts (0.4%) in July: Actual (-1.5%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/chile-imacec-below-forecasts-04-in-july-actual-15-202609011229 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 12:29:51 GMT
[2] US Dollar: Warsh boost fades as Fed pricing holds - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-warsh-boost-fades-as-fed-pricing-holds-ing-202609011227 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 12:27:24 GMT
[3] Strategy spends $635M buying back STRC as perpetual preferred stock lags $100 par URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/strategy-spends-635m-buying-back-strc-as-perpetual-preferred-stock-lags-100-par-202609011223 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 12:23:23 GMT
[4] Euro: ECB tightening seen limiting downside - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-ecb-tightening-seen-limiting-downside-bbh-202609011216 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 12:16:57 GMT
[5] The Dollar bounces back but US efforts on rates and the Yen are being challenged URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-dollar-bounces-back-but-us-efforts-on-rates-and-the-yen-are-being-challenged-202609011216 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 12:16:08 GMT
[6] Higher Oil - Higher energy? It's not that simple URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/higher-oil-higher-energy-its-not-that-simple-202609011211 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 12:11:52 GMT
[7] European Central Bank: Inflation risks support another hike - Nordea URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/european-central-bank-inflation-risks-support-another-hike-nordea-202609011207 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 12:07:33 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Iran says in contact with IAEA, no talks on changing relationship Time: 2026-09-01T12:26:19.314Z
[2] Pezeshkian, Putin meet on sidelines of SCO summit Time: 2026-09-01T11:57:13.241Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 185 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 5 of 60 normal daily β 8.3% of normal
- Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 185
- Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 63.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS285 (+470% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost