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2026-W36

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-31 06:01:20 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.1% (3d) | Alignment: 17% (1 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β€” Moderate divergence β€” several structural signals disagree with price

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” DIX 0.459 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.99 balanced
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT GEX +4.5B strong suppression
Breadth βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Breadth 54% β€” mixed participation
Energy 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Energy STABLE β€” no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED Copper/Gold -7.3% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.34% restrictive
Correlations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” SPY/VIX -0.57 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.20 normal, SPY/TNX -0.30 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.36 elevated
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 14.4 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 150 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 6.00 dealer stress
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Stagflation score 22 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT USD/JPY 5d +0.7% stable, MOVE 71 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β€” hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT HY OAS 2.63% benign, NFCI -0.566 loose

Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, energy, and inflation flash bullish against the risk-on tape β€” 5 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 83/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.459; GEX positive at 4.5B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.4 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $769.41 | 50 SMA $753.39 | 200 SMA $709.41 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $768.41
  • QQQ: $716.32 | 50 SMA $712.19 | 200 SMA $654.71 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $704.3
  • IWM: $295.79 | 50 SMA $297.20 | 200 SMA $271.05 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $300.76
  • VIX: 14.43 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.720%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $769.41 47.40 40.2 $768.41 Neutral 0.93
QQQ $716.32 48.49 48.0 $704.30 Bearish 0.44
IWM $295.79 46.33 20.8 $300.76 Bearish 11.66

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 14.43 47.71 33.7 $11.05 Neutral 1.07
TNX 47.20 51.28 44.8 - - -
GLD $409.21 68.12 32.2 $419.35 Bearish 9.25
DXY 99.68 47.47 29.6 - - -
SLV $60.00 66.95 10.4 $44.00 Neutral 0.79

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.459
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.48B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.63% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.98%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.39% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 54.5%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.5%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 32.1%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 41.6%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Energy 94.7% 0/0
Communication Services 78.9% 0/0
Health Care 77.8% 0/0
Consumer Staples 69.7% 0/0
Materials 66.7% 0/0
Financials 61.8% 0/0
Technology 53.8% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 47.5% 0/0
Industrials 38.8% 0/0
Real Estate 19.2% 0/0
Utilities 10.0% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: STABLE
  • WTI Crude: $83.44 (5d: -1.9%)
  • Brent Crude: $88.29 | Spread: $4.85
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.0500/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.2400/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.32/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $62.68
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $10.33

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.569 elevated
SPY / DXY -0.201 normal
SPY / TNX -0.302 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.362 elevated

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.97
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 4,417,878.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 4,354,304.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.99 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $674.9B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $772 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $769.41)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
  • Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.72%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.99 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.68
  • Growth vs Value: 0.93
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.31% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.33%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.35%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 22/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,780B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,855B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,031B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,658B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $78,500 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 5/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β€” structural repricing risk elevated.
  • [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $61.32/bbl (vs 20d avg 57.39, +1.9Οƒ), floor $35.00/bbl β€” refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.459, GEX +4.5B, HY OAS 2.63%, breadth 54%.
  • [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -7.3% β€” growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 150 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β€” systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~244h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: August
  • Average Return: +0.37%
  • Median Return: +1.41%
  • Hit Rate: 65%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
  • Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.9% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑2.3% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.61 (↓6.2% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.2% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.34 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓7.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (28):

[1] Oil prices higher as US-Iran continue skirmishes in Gulf URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/oil-prices-higher-as-us-iran-continue-skirmishes-in-gulf-202608310956 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 09:56:53 GMT

[2] Australian Dollar edges lower as mixed Chinese PMIs fail to impress URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-edges-lower-as-mixed-chinese-pmis-fail-to-impress-202608310948 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 09:48:19 GMT

[3] New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ seen hiking in September - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-rbnz-seen-hiking-in-september-uob-202608310940 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 09:40:59 GMT

[4] Asia FX: Fed repricing pressures regional currencies - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/asia-fx-fed-repricing-pressures-regional-currencies-mufg-202608310932 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 09:32:31 GMT

[5] Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608310930 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 09:30:44 GMT

[6] EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Remains below nine-day EMA near 185.50 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-price-forecast-remains-below-nine-day-ema-near-18550-202608310921 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 09:21:44 GMT

[7] Canadian Dollar : Modest downside on trade risks and yields - HSBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-modest-downside-on-trade-risks-and-yields-hsbc-202608310919 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 09:19:28 GMT

[8] The US Fed boosts USD with S&P500 down: What happened? CAD + NZD interest rates in focus [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-us-fed-boosts-usd-with-sp500-down-what-happened-cad-nzd-interest-rates-in-focus-video-202608310912 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 09:12:40 GMT

[9] The commodities feed: Oil rallies on fresh persian gulf strikes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-commodities-feed-oil-rallies-on-fresh-persian-gulf-strikes-202608310905 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 09:05:32 GMT

[10] US Dollar: Hawkish Fed pricing supports Dollar into payrolls - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-hawkish-fed-pricing-supports-dollar-into-payrolls-bbh-202608310904 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 09:04:57 GMT

[11] WTI - Potential for strong upside movement [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/wti-potential-for-strong-upside-movement-video-202608310900 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 09:00:33 GMT

[12] US Dollar Index Price Forecast: DXY fails near 100-SMA/38.2% Fibo. confluence around 99.75 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-price-forecast-dxy-fails-near-100-sma-382-fibo-confluence-around-9975-202608310900 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 09:00:24 GMT

[13] Greece Retail Sales (YoY) declined to 1.9% in June from previous 6.8% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/greece-retail-sales-yoy-declined-to-19-in-june-from-previous-68-202608310900 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 09:00:15 GMT

[14] Belgium Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) in line with expectations (0%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/belgium-gross-domestic-product-qoq-in-line-with-expectations-0-in-2q-202608310900 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 09:00:11 GMT

[15] Greece Unemployment Rate (MoM) declined to 7.9% in July from previous 8% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/greece-unemployment-rate-mom-declined-to-79-in-july-from-previous-8-202608310859 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 08:59:51 GMT

[16] Fed's hawkishness supports USD, weighs on Gold URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/feds-hawkishness-supports-usd-weighs-on-gold-202608310859 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 08:59:23 GMT

[17] USD/JPY Price Forecast: US Dollar keeps crawling towards the key 160.00 area URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-us-dollar-keeps-crawling-towards-the-key-16000-area-202608310857 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 08:57:37 GMT

[18] Euro: Downside risk remains in focus against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-downside-risk-remains-in-focus-against-us-dollar-uob-202608310855 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 08:55:37 GMT

[19] Dow Jones futures slip as traders adopt caution amid higher oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-slip-as-traders-adopt-caution-amid-higher-oil-prices-202608310852 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 08:52:03 GMT

[20] Euro recovers against US Dollar, German CPI accelerates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-recovers-against-us-dollar-german-cpi-accelerates-202608310850 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 08:50:08 GMT

[21] Australian Dollar: RBA hike risks linger - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-rba-hike-risks-linger-ocbc-202608310846 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 08:46:20 GMT

[22] USD/JPY breaks 160 as Warsh turns up heat URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/usd-jpy-breaks-160-as-warsh-turns-up-heat-202608310846 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 08:46:09 GMT

[23] How economic uncertainty changes bullion buying patterns across generations URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/education/how-economic-uncertainty-changes-bullion-buying-patterns-across-generations-202608310844 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 08:44:29 GMT

[24] New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ set for second hike - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-rbnz-set-for-second-hike-bny-202608310836 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 08:36:51 GMT

[25] Hong Kong SAR Retail Sales declined to 4.5% in July from previous 4.6% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/hong-kong-sar-retail-sales-declined-to-45-in-july-from-previous-46-202608310830 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 08:30:14 GMT

[26] Polish Zloty: Fiscal slippage and cautious NBP weigh - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/polish-zloty-fiscal-slippage-and-cautious-nbp-weigh-commerzbank-202608310827 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 08:27:55 GMT

[27] Euro strengthens against Canadian Dollar ahead of Germany's HICP data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-strengthens-against-canadian-dollar-ahead-of-germanys-hicp-data-202608310814 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 08:14:54 GMT

[28] Transparency as a feature: Building long-term trader confidence URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/transparency-as-a-feature-building-long-term-trader-confidence-202608310813 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 08:13:49 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (6):

[1] Iran's president meets Indian prime minister in Kyrgyzstan Time: 2026-08-31T09:27:45.154Z

[BREAKING] [2] Iran's state media names second person killed in US strike on Larak Island Time: 2026-08-31T09:15:20.625Z

[BREAKING] [3] UAE condemns Iran's drone attack Time: 2026-08-31T08:57:15.709Z

[4] Oman follows Washington on many issues, Iranian lawmaker says Time: 2026-08-31T08:48:49.462Z

[5] Iran's Supreme Court upholds protester's death sentence, lawyer says Time: 2026-08-31T08:23:33.765Z

[6] US strike on Larak will draw decisive response, official says Time: 2026-08-31T08:00:55.295Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 184 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 5 of 60 normal daily β€” 8.3% of normal
  • Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 393
  • Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 53.3x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS343 (+586% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost