Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-31 08:02:23 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.1% (3d) | Alignment: 17% (1 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.459 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.99 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +4.5B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 54% β mixed participation |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -7.3% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.34% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.57 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.20 normal, SPY/TNX -0.30 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.36 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 14.4 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 150 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 6.00 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 22 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.7% stable, MOVE 71 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.63% benign, NFCI -0.566 loose |
Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, energy, and inflation flash bullish against the risk-on tape β 5 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 83/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.459; GEX positive at 4.5B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.4 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $769.41 | 50 SMA $753.39 | 200 SMA $709.41 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $768.41
- QQQ: $716.32 | 50 SMA $712.19 | 200 SMA $654.71 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $704.3
- IWM: $295.79 | 50 SMA $297.20 | 200 SMA $271.05 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $300.76
- VIX: 14.43 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.720%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $769.41 | 47.40 | 40.2 | $768.41 | Neutral | 0.93 |
| QQQ | $716.32 | 48.49 | 48.0 | $704.30 | Bearish | 0.44 |
| IWM | $295.79 | 46.33 | 20.8 | $300.76 | Bearish | 11.66 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.43 | 47.71 | 33.7 | $11.05 | Neutral | 1.07 |
| TNX | 47.20 | 51.28 | 44.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $409.21 | 68.12 | 32.2 | $419.35 | Bearish | 9.25 |
| DXY | 99.68 | 47.47 | 29.6 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $60.00 | 66.95 | 10.4 | $44.00 | Neutral | 0.79 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.459
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.48B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.63% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.98%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.39% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 54.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.5%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.1%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.6%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 94.7% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 78.9% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 77.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 69.7% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 66.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 61.8% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 47.5% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 38.8% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 19.2% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $83.44 (5d: -1.9%)
- Brent Crude: $88.29 | Spread: $4.85
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0500/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.2400/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.32/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $62.68
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.33
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.569 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.201 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.302 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.362 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.97
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,417,878.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,354,304.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.99 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $674.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $772 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $769.41)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.72%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.99 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.68
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.31% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.33%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.35%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 22/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,780B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,855B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,031B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,666B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $78,246 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 5/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β structural repricing risk elevated.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $61.32/bbl (vs 20d avg 57.39, +1.9Ο), floor $35.00/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.459, GEX +4.5B, HY OAS 2.63%, breadth 54%.
- [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -7.3% β growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 150 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~244h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.37%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.61 (β6.2% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.34 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (29):
[1] Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 2.9%, below expectations (3.1%) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-yoy-came-in-at-29-below-expectations-31-in-august-202608311200 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 12:00:25 GMT
[2] Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) below forecasts (0.3%) in August: Actual (0.2%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-mom-below-forecasts-03-in-august-actual-02-202608311200 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 12:00:21 GMT
[3] Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) in line with forecasts (2.9%) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-consumer-price-index-yoy-in-line-with-forecasts-29-in-august-202608311200 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 12:00:18 GMT
[4] Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.2%, below expectations (0.3%) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-consumer-price-index-mom-came-in-at-02-below-expectations-03-in-august-202608311200 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 12:00:12 GMT
[5] Warsh: "We have work to do" - Traders price in a September hike, Gold gets punched URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/warsh-we-have-work-to-do-traders-price-in-a-september-hike-gold-gets-punched-202608311159 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 11:59:39 GMT
[6] Cryptocurrencies Price Prediction: PI, Bitcoin & Crypto - European Wrap 31 August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-pi-bitcoin-crypto-european-wrap-31-august-202608311150 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 11:50:20 GMT
[7] Euro: ECB tightening expectations support pair - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-ecb-tightening-expectations-support-pair-bbh-202608311147 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 11:47:38 GMT
[8] USD/JPY Price Forecast: Faces selling pressure above 160.00 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-faces-selling-pressure-above-16000-202608311143 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 11:43:55 GMT
[9] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD finds ground slightly below 20-day EMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-finds-ground-slightly-below-20-day-ema-202608311140 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 11:40:38 GMT
[10] Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP broadly consolidate amid renewed US-Iran strikes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-today-bitcoin-ethereum-xrp-broadly-consolidate-amid-renewed-us-iran-strikes-202608311136 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 11:36:18 GMT
[11] Euro languishes around 1.1600 amid Fed hiking hopes, fresh tensions in Iran URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-languages-around-11600-amid-fed-hiking-hopes-fresh-tensions-in-iran-202608311134 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 11:34:50 GMT
[12] Brazil Primary Budget Surplus increased to 1.4B in July from previous -55.3B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazil-primary-budget-surplus-increased-to-14b-in-july-from-previous-553b-202608311133 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 11:33:37 GMT
[13] Brazil Nominal Budget Balance below forecasts (-84B) in July: Actual (-97.6B) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazil-nominal-budget-balance-below-forecasts-84b-in-july-actual-976b-202608311133 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 11:33:27 GMT
[14] Gold holds near $4,450 as Fed rate-hike expectations keep buyers cautious URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-holds-near-4-450-as-fed-rate-hike-expectations-keep-buyers-cautious-202608311131 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 11:31:56 GMT
[15] Canadian Dollar: BoC dovish tone and tariff risks - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-boc-dovish-tone-and-tariff-risks-td-securities-202608311130 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 11:30:32 GMT
[16] September Fed rate hike fears look overblown as the probability stands at just 58%, not 90% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/september-fed-rate-hike-fears-look-overblown-as-the-probability-stands-at-just-58-not-90-202608311129 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 11:29:31 GMT
[17] Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC consolidates near $78,000 as ETF inflows surge URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-price-forecast-btc-consolidates-near-78-000-as-etf-inflows-surge-202608311128 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 11:28:40 GMT
[18] The S&P 500 has played its main Trump cards URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-sp-500-has-played-its-main-trump-cards-202608311122 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 11:22:40 GMT
[19] New Zealand Dollar holds above 0.5900 as traders await RBNZ decision URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-holds-above-05900-as-traders-await-rbnz-decision-202608311117 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 11:17:14 GMT
[20] US Dollar: Jobs data to test hawkish Fed repricing - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-jobs-data-to-test-hawkish-fed-repricing-bny-202608311115 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 11:15:34 GMT
[21] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD steadies near $4,400 lows amid rising Fed tightening bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-steadies-near-4400-lows-amid-rising-fed-tightening-bets-202608311059 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 10:59:02 GMT
[22] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Finds ground slightly below 20-day EMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-finds-ground-slightly-below-20-day-ema-202608311041 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 10:41:12 GMT
[23] Pi Network Price Forecast: PI stages mild August recovery amid potential DEX environment test URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/pi-network-price-forecast-pi-stages-mild-august-recovery-amid-potential-dex-environment-test-202608311032 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 10:32:04 GMT
[24] India Gross Domestic Product Quarterly (YoY) came in at 7.8%, above expectations (7.1%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-gross-domestic-product-quarterly-yoy-came-in-at-78-above-expectations-71-in-2q-202608311030 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 10:30:39 GMT
[25] WTI Oil appreciates beyond $85.50 as tensions rise in Iran URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-oil-appreciates-beyond-8550-as-tensions-rise-in-iran-202608311008 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 10:08:51 GMT
[26] US Dollar: Warsh speech keeps rate hike debate open - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-warsh-speech-keeps-rate-hike-debate-open-commerzbank-202608311005 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 10:05:52 GMT
[27] Portugal Consumer Price Index (MoM) climbed from previous -0.5% to 0.1% in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/portugal-consumer-price-index-mom-climbed-from-previous-05-to-01-in-august-202608311001 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 10:01:44 GMT
[28] Portugal Consumer Price Index (YoY) rose from previous 3% to 3.3% in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/portugal-consumer-price-index-yoy-rose-from-previous-3-to-33-in-august-202608311001 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 10:01:40 GMT
[29] Portugal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) in line with expectations (0.8%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/portugal-gross-domestic-product-qoq-in-line-with-expectations-08-in-2q-202608311001 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 10:01:37 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (8):
[BREAKING] [1] Iranians hit back at fuel remarks as dollar passes 2.1m rials Time: 2026-08-31T11:59:05.284Z
[2] Further enemy action will draw decisive response, Iranian commander says Time: 2026-08-31T11:56:34.000Z
[3] Two killed in US attack on Larak Island, Qeshm governor says Time: 2026-08-31T11:25:32.656Z
[4] Iran still seeks agreement despite US failures, Pezeshkian tells Modi Time: 2026-08-31T10:47:51.306Z
[5] Bandar Abbas-Dubai flights resume after six-month suspension Time: 2026-08-31T10:45:54.043Z
[6] Iranian and Mongolian foreign ministers meet in Kyrgyzstan Time: 2026-08-31T10:40:43.162Z
[7] Iran weighs UN General Assembly attendance over US conditions Time: 2026-08-31T10:32:42.265Z
[8] Larak confrontation was unrelated to mine-laying - IRGC media Time: 2026-08-31T09:59:50.437Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 184 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 3 of 60 normal daily β 3.5% of normal
- Throughput: 3.0% of normal (0.3M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 383
- Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 53.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS475 (+850% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost