Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-31 04:01:29 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.1% (3d) | Alignment: 17% (1 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.459 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.99 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +4.5B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 54% β mixed participation |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -7.3% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.34% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.57 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.20 normal, SPY/TNX -0.30 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.36 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 14.4 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 150 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 6.00 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 22 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.7% stable, MOVE 71 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.63% benign, NFCI -0.566 loose |
Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, energy, and inflation flash bullish against the risk-on tape β 5 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 83/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.459; GEX positive at 4.5B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.4 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $769.41 | 50 SMA $753.39 | 200 SMA $709.41 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $768.41
- QQQ: $716.32 | 50 SMA $712.19 | 200 SMA $654.71 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $704.3
- IWM: $295.79 | 50 SMA $297.20 | 200 SMA $271.05 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $300.76
- VIX: 14.43 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.720%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $769.41 | 47.40 | 40.2 | $768.41 | Neutral | 0.93 |
| QQQ | $716.32 | 48.49 | 48.0 | $704.30 | Bearish | 0.44 |
| IWM | $295.79 | 46.33 | 20.8 | $300.76 | Bearish | 11.66 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.43 | 47.71 | 33.7 | $11.05 | Neutral | 1.07 |
| TNX | 47.20 | 51.28 | 44.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $409.21 | 68.12 | 32.2 | $419.35 | Bearish | 9.25 |
| DXY | 99.68 | 47.47 | 29.6 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $60.00 | 66.95 | 10.4 | $44.00 | Neutral | 0.79 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.459
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.48B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.63% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.98%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.39% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 54.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.5%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.1%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.6%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 94.7% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 78.9% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 77.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 69.7% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 66.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 61.8% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 47.5% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 38.8% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 19.2% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $83.44 (5d: -1.9%)
- Brent Crude: $88.29 | Spread: $4.85
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0500/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.2400/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.32/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $62.68
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.33
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.569 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.201 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.302 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.362 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.97
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,417,878.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,354,304.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.99 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $674.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $772 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $769.41)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.72%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.99 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.68
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.31% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.33%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.35%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 22/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,780B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,855B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,031B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,658B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $78,157 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 5/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β structural repricing risk elevated.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $61.32/bbl (vs 20d avg 57.39, +1.9Ο), floor $35.00/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.459, GEX +4.5B, HY OAS 2.63%, breadth 54%.
- [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -7.3% β growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 150 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~244h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.37%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.61 (β6.2% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.34 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (28):
[1] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD regains ground near $65.70, focus shifts to US NFP URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-regains-ground-near-6570-focus-shifts-to-us-nfp-202608310758 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 07:58:16 GMT
[2] Forex Today: Tensions re-escalate in Mideast, USD consolidates Fed-inspired rally URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-tensions-re-escalate-in-mideast-usd-consolidates-fed-inspired-rally-202608310750 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 07:50:39 GMT
[3] Gold: Fed hawkishness caps upside - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-fed-hawkishness-caps-upside-ing-202608310750 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 07:50:34 GMT
[4] Dollar back up after warsh URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/dollar-back-up-after-warsh-202608310745 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 07:45:24 GMT
[5] Euro: Inflation test for ECB hike odds - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-inflation-test-for-ecb-hike-odds-bny-202608310739 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 07:39:28 GMT
[6] China's PMIs remained in contractionary territory in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/chinas-pmis-remained-in-contractionary-territory-in-august-202608310737 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 07:37:22 GMT
[7] US Dollar: Warsh speech supports greenback - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-warsh-speech-supports-greenback-dbs-202608310731 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 07:31:31 GMT
[8] Indonesian Rupiah declines despite weaker US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesian-rupiah-declines-despite-weaker-us-dollar-202608310729 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 07:29:19 GMT
[9] UAE Presidential Adviser Gargash says more realistic approach needed beyond MoU URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/uae-presidential-adviser-gargash-says-more-realistic-approach-needed-beyond-mou-202608310727 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 07:27:12 GMT
[10] Unchained Summit India debuts in Mumbai as capital, markets and Web3 converge URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/unchained-summit-india-debuts-in-mumbai-as-capital-markets-and-web3-converge-202608310726 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 07:26:53 GMT
[11] Technical update forex, crypto, precious metals [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/technical-update-forex-crypto-precious-metals-video-202608310726 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 07:26:26 GMT
[12] EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Hesitates near 0.8550 with the risk-off mood capping rallies URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-gbp-price-forecast-hesitates-near-08550-with-the-risk-off-mood-capping-rallies-202608310724 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 07:24:35 GMT
[13] Hyperliquid Price Forecast: HYPE pares recent gains as momentum, retail hype fade URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/hyperliquid-price-forecast-hype-pares-recent-gains-as-momentum-retail-hype-fade-202608310710 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 07:10:09 GMT
[14] Indian Rupee: Growth supports INR against US Dollar - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-growth-supports-inr-against-us-dollar-commerzbank-202608310703 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 07:03:21 GMT
[15] Turkey Unemployment Rate up to 8.1% in July from previous 7.6% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkey-unemployment-rate-up-to-81-in-july-from-previous-76-202608310700 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 07:00:47 GMT
[16] Turkey Quarterly Gross Domestic Product came in at 2.3%, below expectations (2.9%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkey-quarterly-gross-domestic-product-came-in-at-23-below-expectations-29-in-2q-202608310700 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 07:00:32 GMT
[17] New Zealand Dollar gathers strength above 0.5900 on stronger China PMI data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-gathers-strength-above-05900-on-stronger-china-pmi-data-202608310658 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 06:58:11 GMT
[18] Japanese Yen: Market needs more than BoJ pricing - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-market-needs-more-than-boj-pricing-ocbc-202608310646 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 06:46:58 GMT
[19] Asian stock markets face slight pressure from renewed geopolitical risks, hawkish Fed bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/asian-stock-markets-face-slight-pressure-renewed-geopolitical-risks-hawkish-fed-bets-202608310642 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 06:42:45 GMT
[20] Brent: Hormuz tensions keep prices supported above $90 - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-hormuz-tensions-keep-prices-supported-above-90-ing-202608310638 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 06:38:04 GMT
[21] British Pound: Downside risks with 1.3480 in sight against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-downside-risks-with-13480-in-sight-against-us-dollar-uob-202608310628 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 06:28:31 GMT
[22] British Pound holds losses amid geopolitical tensions, Fed tightening hopes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-holds-losses-amid-geopolitical-tensions-fed-tightening-hopes-202608310624 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 06:24:12 GMT
[23] Euro: Warsh speech weighs on EUR against US Dollar - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-warsh-speech-weighs-on-eur-against-us-dollar-danske-bank-202608310619 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 06:19:37 GMT
[24] Fed hawks are back URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/fed-hawks-are-back-202608310618 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 06:18:13 GMT
[25] Gold declines as hawkish Fed signals lift rate hike expectations URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-declines-as-hawkish-fed-signals-lift-rate-hike-expectations-202608310616 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 06:16:36 GMT
[26] Top stock reports for NVIDIA, ExxonMobil and HSBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/top-stock-reports-for-nvidia-exxonmobil-and-hsbc-202608310614 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 06:14:27 GMT
[27] Euro falls against Japanese Yen ahead of German inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-falls-against-japanese-yen-ahead-of-german-inflation-data-202608310603 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 06:03:10 GMT
[28] South Africa Private Sector Credit declined to 7.41% in July from previous 7.8% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-africa-private-sector-credit-declined-to-741-in-july-from-previous-78-202608310601 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 06:01:03 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (9):
[BREAKING] [1] Iran detains cargo ship over oil pollution in Persian Gulf, authorities say Time: 2026-08-31T07:44:30.975Z
[BREAKING] [2] IRGC cleric killed on mission near Iran's southeastern border Time: 2026-08-31T07:37:32.402Z
[BREAKING] [3] UAE denies reports of missile attack on Al Menhad Air Base Time: 2026-08-31T07:28:51.220Z
[4] UAE adviser calls for new approach beyond failed Iran-US MoU Time: 2026-08-31T07:25:17.119Z
[5] Oil operations on Kharg Island have not stopped, Iranian official says Time: 2026-08-31T06:44:03.499Z
[BREAKING] [6] Iran's president arrives in Bishkek for SCO summit Time: 2026-08-31T06:30:29.862Z
[7] UAE says it engaged Iranian drone over its territorial waters Time: 2026-08-31T06:23:57.578Z
[8] Iran's state media names IRGC Navy member killed in US strike on Larak Time: 2026-08-31T06:16:29.389Z
[9] IRGC warns of controlled explosions near Isfahan Time: 2026-08-31T05:59:30.619Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 184 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 3 of 60 normal daily β 3.5% of normal
- Throughput: 3.0% of normal (0.3M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 393
- Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 66.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $8.5 billion/day economic cost