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2026-W36

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-31 02:01:58 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.1% (3d) | Alignment: 17% (1 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β€” Moderate divergence β€” several structural signals disagree with price

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” DIX 0.459 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.99 balanced
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT GEX +4.5B strong suppression
Breadth βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Breadth 54% β€” mixed participation
Energy 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Energy STABLE β€” no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED Copper/Gold -7.3% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.34% restrictive
Correlations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” SPY/VIX -0.57 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.20 normal, SPY/TNX -0.30 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.36 elevated
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 14.4 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 150 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 6.00 dealer stress
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Stagflation score 22 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT USD/JPY 5d +0.7% stable, MOVE 71 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β€” hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT HY OAS 2.63% benign, NFCI -0.566 loose

Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, energy, and inflation flash bullish against the risk-on tape β€” 5 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 83/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.459; GEX positive at 4.5B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.4 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $769.41 | 50 SMA $753.39 | 200 SMA $709.41 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $768.41
  • QQQ: $716.32 | 50 SMA $712.19 | 200 SMA $654.71 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $704.3
  • IWM: $295.79 | 50 SMA $297.20 | 200 SMA $271.05 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $300.76
  • VIX: 14.43 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.720%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $769.41 47.40 40.2 $768.41 Neutral 0.93
QQQ $716.32 48.49 48.0 $704.30 Bearish 0.44
IWM $295.79 46.33 20.8 $300.76 Bearish 11.66

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 14.43 47.71 33.7 $11.05 Neutral 1.07
TNX 47.20 51.28 44.8 - - -
GLD $409.21 68.12 32.2 $419.35 Bearish 9.25
DXY 99.68 47.47 29.6 - - -
SLV $60.00 66.95 10.4 $44.00 Neutral 0.79

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.459
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.48B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.63% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.98%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.39% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 54.5%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.5%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 32.1%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 41.6%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Energy 94.7% 0/0
Communication Services 78.9% 0/0
Health Care 77.8% 0/0
Consumer Staples 69.7% 0/0
Materials 66.7% 0/0
Financials 61.8% 0/0
Technology 53.8% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 47.5% 0/0
Industrials 38.8% 0/0
Real Estate 19.2% 0/0
Utilities 10.0% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: STABLE
  • WTI Crude: $83.44 (5d: -1.9%)
  • Brent Crude: $88.29 | Spread: $4.85
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.0500/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.2400/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.32/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $62.68
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $10.33

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.569 elevated
SPY / DXY -0.201 normal
SPY / TNX -0.302 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.362 elevated

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.97
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 4,417,878.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 4,354,304.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.99 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $674.9B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $760 | Put Wall: $785 (Spot: $769.41)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
  • Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.72%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.99 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.68
  • Growth vs Value: 0.93
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.31% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.33%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.35%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 22/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,780B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,855B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,031B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,658B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,944 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 5/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β€” structural repricing risk elevated.
  • [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $61.32/bbl (vs 20d avg 57.39, +1.9Οƒ), floor $35.00/bbl β€” refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.459, GEX +4.5B, HY OAS 2.63%, breadth 54%.
  • [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -7.3% β€” growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 150 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β€” systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~244h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~76h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: August
  • Average Return: +0.37%
  • Median Return: +1.41%
  • Hit Rate: 65%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
  • Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.9% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑2.3% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.61 (↓6.2% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.2% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.34 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓7.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (30):

[1] Gold and Silver collapsed as the Dollar soared on Friday [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-and-silver-collapsed-as-the-dollar-soared-on-friday-video-202608310600 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 06:00:27 GMT

[2] Denmark Unemployment Rate remains unchanged at 2.7% in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/denmark-unemployment-rate-remains-unchanged-at-27-in-july-202608310600 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 06:00:03 GMT

[3] Meet XTB Institutional at Forex Expo Dubai 2026 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/meet-xtb-institutional-at-forex-expo-dubai-2026-202608310600 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 06:00:00 GMT

[4] EUR/USD Price Forecast: Gains ground to near 1.1600, bullish vibe prevails above 100-day SMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-gains-ground-to-near-11600-bullish-vibe-prevails-above-100-day-sma-202608310556 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 05:56:22 GMT

[5] Geopolitics weighs on sentiment again URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/geopolitics-weighs-on-sentiment-again-202608310555 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 05:55:34 GMT

[6] Dogecoin Price Forecast: DOGE whales take profits as rally loses momentum URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/dogecoin-price-forecast-doge-whales-take-profits-as-rally-loses-momentum-202608310555 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 05:55:10 GMT

[7] Warsh strikes hawkish tone ahead of Friday's NFP URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/warsh-strikes-hawkish-tone-ahead-of-fridays-nfp-202608310552 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 05:52:19 GMT

[8] Flash inflation and GDP structure across CEE URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/flash-inflation-and-gdp-structure-across-cee-202608310549 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 05:49:59 GMT

[9] Warsh comments continue to drive Sept Fed rate hike expectations higher URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/warsh-comments-continue-to-drive-sept-fed-rate-hike-expectations-higher-202608310545 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 05:45:45 GMT

[10] USD/JPY Price Forecast: Retreats from one-month top as bullish bias remains below 160.00 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-retreats-from-one-month-top-as-bullish-bias-remains-below-16000-202608310540 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 05:40:17 GMT

[11] Iran's IRGC claims it shot down US drone, attacked UAE air base URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/irans-irgc-says-will-respond-decisively-to-any-further-hostile-military-aggression-202608310526 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 05:26:41 GMT

[12] Indian Rupee opens lower as renewed US-Iran tensions lift oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-opens-lower-as-renewed-us-iran-tensions-lift-oil-prices-202608310525 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 05:25:47 GMT

[13] Japan Annualized Housing Starts dipped from previous 0.786M to 0.774M in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-annualized-housing-starts-dipped-from-previous-0786m-to-0774m-in-july-202608310507 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 05:07:10 GMT

[14] Saudi Arabia Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/saudi-arabia-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608310505 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 05:05:18 GMT

[15] Japan Annualized Housing Starts: 0.736M (July) vs previous 0.786M URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-annualized-housing-starts-0736m-july-vs-previous-0786m-202608310504 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 05:04:36 GMT

[16] WTI rises to near $84.50 as IRGC claims supertanker struck by mines in Hormuz URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-rises-to-near-8450-as-irgc-claims-supertanker-struck-by-mines-in-hormuz-202608310502 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 05:02:47 GMT

[17] AUD/USD Price Forecast: Holds above 0.7150 on soft USD; Fed/Iran risks curb upside URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-forecast-holds-above-07150-on-soft-usd-fed-iran-risks-curb-upside-202608310502 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 05:02:32 GMT

[18] Japan Construction Orders (YoY) declined to -13.4% in July from previous 2.3% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-construction-orders-yoy-declined-to-134-in-july-from-previous-23-202608310501 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 05:01:58 GMT

[19] Japan Housing Starts (YoY) registered at 8.2% above expectations (7.9%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-housing-starts-yoy-registered-at-82-above-expectations-79-in-july-202608310501 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 05:01:40 GMT

[20] Philippines Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/philippines-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608310500 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 05:00:21 GMT

[21] United Arab Emirates Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-arab-emirates-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608310455 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 04:55:05 GMT

[22] Cryptocurrencies Price Prediction: Solana, Cardano & Bitcoin - Asian Wrap 31 August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-solana-cardano-bitcoin-asian-wrap-31-august-202608310452 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 04:52:28 GMT

[23] Pakistan Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pakistan-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608310445 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 04:45:09 GMT

[24] Solana Price Forecast: Strong institutional confidence keeps SOL afloat above $100 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/solana-price-forecast-strong-institutional-confidence-keeps-sol-afloat-above-100-202608310443 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 04:43:01 GMT

[25] Gold pares intraday losses to sub-$4,400 levels on softer USD; not out of the woods yet URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-drops-to-nearly-two-week-low-as-hawkish-fed-bets-rise-amid-oil-driven-inflation-fears-202608310440 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 04:40:55 GMT

[26] India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608310435 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 04:35:31 GMT

[27] Malaysia Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/malaysia-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608310431 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 04:31:43 GMT

[28] AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Declines to near 114.50, but maintains bullish tone above 100-day SMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-jpy-price-forecast-declines-to-near-11450-but-maintains-bullish-tone-above-100-day-sma-202608310429 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 04:29:50 GMT

[29] Swiss Franc gains as US Dollar weakens despite Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish remarks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-gains-as-us-dollar-weakens-despite-fed-chair-warshs-hawkish-remarks-202608310411 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 04:11:40 GMT

[30] Morning briefing: Major currency pairs are expected to trade mostly sideways URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/morning-briefing-major-currency-pairs-are-expected-to-trade-mostly-sideways-202608310409 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 04:09:48 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (5):

[1] Iran will use all its capabilities to win war, official says Time: 2026-08-31T05:23:23.156Z

[2] Magnitude 3.8 earthquake strikes east of Tehran, no injuries reported Time: 2026-08-31T04:44:03.879Z

[BREAKING] [3] IRGC says supertanker struck two mines in Strait of Hormuz Time: 2026-08-31T04:37:53.627Z

[4] Iran says it struck US bases in self-defense Time: 2026-08-31T04:19:10.505Z

[BREAKING] [5] Iran army says it attacked US forces at UAE base with dozens of drones Time: 2026-08-31T04:10:13.387Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 184 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 3 of 60 normal daily β€” 1.7% of normal
  • Throughput: 2.0% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 383
  • Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 66.7x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS385 (+670% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $8.5 billion/day economic cost