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2026-W35

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-28 06:00:58 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.0% (3d) | Alignment: 71% (5 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: MIXED β€” Mixed β€” no clear signal consensus

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” DIX 0.451 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.91 balanced
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED GEX +6.7B strong suppression
Breadth βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Breadth 55% β€” mixed participation
Energy 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Energy STABLE β€” no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ— DIVERGENT Copper/Gold -8.6% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.34% restrictive
Correlations πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ— DIVERGENT SPY/VIX -0.21 extreme, SPY/DXY -0.16 normal, SPY/TNX -0.46 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.57 stretched
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 14.5 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 144 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.71 dealer stress
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Stagflation score 22 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED USD/JPY 5d +0.3% stable, MOVE 70 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β€” hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED HY OAS 2.67% benign, NFCI -0.566 loose

Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, energy, and inflation leaning bullish, but growth expectations and correlations haven't signed on yet β€” rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 81/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.451; GEX positive at 6.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.5 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $770.13 | 50 SMA $752.97 | 200 SMA $708.91 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $765.85
  • QQQ: $719.23 | 50 SMA $712.36 | 200 SMA $654.15 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $704.46
  • IWM: $299.85 | 50 SMA $297.04 | 200 SMA $270.76 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $299.35
  • VIX: 14.51 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.672%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $770.13 46.99 50.5 $765.85 Neutral 0.72
QQQ $719.23 47.37 52.9 $704.46 Bearish 0.40
IWM $299.85 51.30 29.9 $299.35 Neutral 1.18

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 14.51 50.37 43.4 $11.06 Neutral 1.09
TNX 46.72 49.36 45.2 - - -
GLD $422.10 71.35 32.2 $409.25 Neutral 0.51
DXY 99.12 39.85 35.9 - - -
SLV $62.67 67.92 10.3 $57.71 Bearish 0.24

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.451
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.72B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.67% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.99%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.47% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 54.7%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 70.6%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 32.0%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 41.5%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Energy 94.7% 0/0
Health Care 75.9% 0/0
Materials 70.8% 0/0
Communication Services 68.4% 0/0
Financials 60.3% 0/0
Consumer Staples 57.6% 0/0
Technology 56.9% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 42.4% 0/0
Industrials 40.3% 0/0
Real Estate 30.8% 0/0
Utilities 13.3% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: STABLE
  • WTI Crude: $83.54 (5d: -4.0%)
  • Brent Crude: $88.56 | Spread: $5.02
  • RBOB Gasoline: $2.9800/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.1700/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.28/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $62.29
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $10.43

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.21 extreme
SPY / DXY -0.158 normal
SPY / TNX -0.459 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.574 stretched

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.86
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 3,801,313.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 3,455,455.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.91 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $559.6B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $770 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $770.13)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
  • Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -10,560 contracts (Z +1.84, as of 2026-08-18)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.67%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.99 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.12
  • Growth vs Value: 0.93
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.31% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.33%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.35%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 22/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,780B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,892B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,042B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,714B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $79,300 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.451, GEX +6.7B, HY OAS 2.67%, breadth 55%.
  • [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -8.6% β€” growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 144 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β€” normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~56h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~32h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~32h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=117887B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).

Seasonality

  • Current Month: August
  • Average Return: +0.38%
  • Median Return: +1.41%
  • Hit Rate: 65%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
  • Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.9% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑2.3% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.61 (↓6.2% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. N/A
  • AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.2% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.34 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓7.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (30):

[1] Ireland Retail Sales (MoM) climbed from previous 0.4% to 1.3% in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ireland-retail-sales-mom-climbed-from-previous-04-to-13-in-july-202608281000 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 10:00:02 GMT

[2] Ireland Retail Sales (YoY) rose from previous 0.6% to 2.2% in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ireland-retail-sales-yoy-rose-from-previous-06-to-22-in-july-202608281000 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 10:00:02 GMT

[3] Japanese Yen: Weak currency and cheap burgers - Nordea URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-weak-currency-and-cheap-burgers-nordea-202608280952 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 09:52:43 GMT

[4] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD hits fresh two-month highs with all eyes on Jackson Hole URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecasts-xag-usd-hits-fresh-two-month-highs-with-all-eyes-on-jackson-hole-202608280945 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 09:45:31 GMT

[5] Australian Dollar: Bulls challenge 0.7200 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-bulls-challenge-07200-against-us-dollar-uob-202608280945 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 09:45:03 GMT

[6] Italy 10-y Bond Auction up to 4.1% from previous 4% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-10-y-bond-auction-up-to-41-from-previous-4-202608280937 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 09:37:24 GMT

[7] Italy 5-y Bond Auction rose from previous 3.39% to 3.44% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-5-y-bond-auction-rose-from-previous-339-to-344-202608280937 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 09:37:16 GMT

[8] Nonfarm Payrolls face a reality check with key benchmark revision URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nonfarm-payrolls-face-a-reality-check-with-key-benchmark-revision-202608280933 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 09:33:27 GMT

[9] Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608280932 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 09:32:30 GMT

[10] Belgium Consumer Price Index (YoY) rose from previous 3.56% to 3.97% in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/belgium-consumer-price-index-yoy-rose-from-previous-356-to-397-in-august-202608280930 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 09:30:01 GMT

[11] Belgium Consumer Price Index (MoM) declined to 0.4% in August from previous 0.63% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/belgium-consumer-price-index-mom-declined-to-04-in-august-from-previous-063-202608280930 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 09:30:00 GMT

[12] British Pound: Energy-driven inflation risks support GBP against US Dollar - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-energy-driven-inflation-risks-support-gbp-against-us-dollar-mufg-202608280929 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 09:29:39 GMT

[13] Crypto has reached May's max, aiming higher URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-has-reached-mays-max-aiming-higher-202608280923 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 09:23:01 GMT

[14] Euro: Options show benefits from US policy doubts - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-options-show-benefits-from-us-policy-doubts-commerzbank-202608280920 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 09:20:29 GMT

[15] French economy grinds to a halt URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/french-economy-grinds-to-a-halt-202608280920 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 09:20:25 GMT

[16] US Dollar: Warsh speech keeps ranges contained - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-warsh-speech-keeps-ranges-contained-ing-202608280910 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 09:10:32 GMT

[17] Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Billions in ETF inflows push BTC toward decisive breakout URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-weekly-forecast-billions-in-etf-inflows-push-btc-toward-decisive-breakout-202608280905 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 09:05:03 GMT

[18] Eurozone Business Climate down to -0.23 in August from previous -0.19 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-business-climate-down-to-023-in-august-from-previous-019-202608280900 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 09:00:51 GMT

[19] Italy Consumer Confidence below forecasts (95) in August: Actual (94.5) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-consumer-confidence-below-forecasts-95-in-august-actual-945-202608280900 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 09:00:18 GMT

[20] Italy Business Confidence came in at 89.9 below forecasts (90) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-business-confidence-came-in-at-899-below-forecasts-90-in-august-202608280900 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 09:00:17 GMT

[21] Greece Producer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 8.8% to 11.8% in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/greece-producer-price-index-yoy-climbed-from-previous-88-to-118-in-july-202608280900 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 09:00:04 GMT

[22] Eurozone Services Sentiment above expectations (4.9) in August: Actual (5.8) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-services-sentiment-above-expectations-49-in-august-actual-58-202608280900 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 09:00:04 GMT

[23] Eurozone Industrial Confidence came in at -5.3, below expectations (-5.2) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-industrial-confidence-came-in-at-53-below-expectations-52-in-august-202608280900 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 09:00:03 GMT

[24] Eurozone Consumer Confidence meets forecasts (-15.5) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-consumer-confidence-meets-forecasts-155-in-august-202608280900 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 09:00:03 GMT

[25] Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator above expectations (97.5) in August: Actual (98.4) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-economic-sentiment-indicator-above-expectations-975-in-august-actual-984-202608280900 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 09:00:02 GMT

[26] Oil: Hormuz stalemate sustains inflation risks - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-hormuz-stalemate-sustains-inflation-risks-rabobank-202608280858 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 08:58:50 GMT

[27] Swiss Franc consolidates recent losses with the focus turning to Fed's Warsh URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-consolidates-recent-losses-with-the-focus-turning-to-feds-warsh-202608280842 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 08:42:36 GMT

[28] New Zealand Dollar: Bearish stance maintained on rate hike pricing - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-bearish-stance-maintained-on-rate-hike-pricing-td-securities-202608280842 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 08:42:36 GMT

[29] Japanese Yen: Range trading remains intact against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-range-trading-remains-intact-against-us-dollar-uob-202608280831 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 08:31:48 GMT

[30] Markets wait for direction as Jackson Hole keeps traders cautious URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/markets-wait-for-direction-as-jackson-hole-keeps-traders-cautious-202608280831 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 08:31:45 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (3):

[1] Persian Gulf states pour billions into routes bypassing Hormuz Time: 2026-08-28T09:24:10.747Z

[2] UAE adviser says diplomacy requires realistic view of leverage Time: 2026-08-28T09:00:40.201Z

[3] Eritrea says hijacked Iran-linked tanker falsely flew its flag Time: 2026-08-28T08:51:05.200Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 181 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 3 of 60 normal daily β€” 5.0% of normal
  • Throughput: 3.5% of normal (0.4M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 319
  • Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 56.7x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS475 (+850% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost