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2026-W35

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-28 04:00:50 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.0% (3d) | Alignment: 71% (5 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: MIXED β€” Mixed β€” no clear signal consensus

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” DIX 0.451 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.91 balanced
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED GEX +6.7B strong suppression
Breadth βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Breadth 55% β€” mixed participation
Energy 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Energy STABLE β€” no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ— DIVERGENT Copper/Gold -8.6% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.34% restrictive
Correlations πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ— DIVERGENT SPY/VIX -0.21 extreme, SPY/DXY -0.16 normal, SPY/TNX -0.46 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.57 stretched
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 14.5 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 144 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.71 dealer stress
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Stagflation score 22 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED USD/JPY 5d +0.3% stable, MOVE 70 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β€” hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED HY OAS 2.67% benign, NFCI -0.566 loose

Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, energy, and inflation leaning bullish, but growth expectations and correlations haven't signed on yet β€” rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 81/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.451; GEX positive at 6.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.5 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $770.13 | 50 SMA $752.97 | 200 SMA $708.91 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $765.85
  • QQQ: $719.23 | 50 SMA $712.36 | 200 SMA $654.15 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $704.46
  • IWM: $299.85 | 50 SMA $297.04 | 200 SMA $270.76 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $299.35
  • VIX: 14.51 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.672%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $770.13 46.99 50.5 $765.85 Neutral 0.72
QQQ $719.23 47.37 52.9 $704.46 Bearish 0.40
IWM $299.85 51.30 29.9 $299.35 Neutral 1.18

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 14.51 50.37 43.4 $11.06 Neutral 1.09
TNX 46.72 49.36 45.2 - - -
GLD $422.10 71.35 32.2 $409.25 Neutral 0.51
DXY 99.12 39.85 35.9 - - -
SLV $62.67 67.92 10.3 $57.71 Bearish 0.24

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.451
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.72B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.67% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.99%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.47% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 54.7%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 70.6%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 32.0%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 41.5%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Energy 94.7% 0/0
Health Care 75.9% 0/0
Materials 70.8% 0/0
Communication Services 68.4% 0/0
Financials 60.3% 0/0
Consumer Staples 57.6% 0/0
Technology 56.9% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 42.4% 0/0
Industrials 40.3% 0/0
Real Estate 30.8% 0/0
Utilities 13.3% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: STABLE
  • WTI Crude: $83.54 (5d: -4.0%)
  • Brent Crude: $88.56 | Spread: $5.02
  • RBOB Gasoline: $2.9800/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.1700/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.28/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $62.29
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $10.43

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.21 extreme
SPY / DXY -0.158 normal
SPY / TNX -0.459 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.574 stretched

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.86
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 3,801,313.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 3,455,455.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.91 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $559.6B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $770 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $770.13)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
  • Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -10,560 contracts (Z +1.84, as of 2026-08-18)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.67%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.99 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.12
  • Growth vs Value: 0.93
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.31% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.33%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.35%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 22/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,780B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,892B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,042B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,714B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $79,709 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~56h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~32h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~32h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.451, GEX +6.7B, HY OAS 2.67%, breadth 55%.
  • [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -8.6% β€” growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 144 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β€” normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
  • [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=117887B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).

Seasonality

  • Current Month: August
  • Average Return: +0.38%
  • Median Return: +1.41%
  • Hit Rate: 65%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
  • Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.9% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑2.3% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.61 (↓6.2% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. N/A
  • AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.2% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.34 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓7.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (30):

[1] Norway Registered Unemployment s.a up to 80.064K in August from previous 79.275K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/norway-registered-unemployment-sa-up-to-80064k-in-august-from-previous-79275k-202608280800 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 08:00:09 GMT

[2] Hyperliquid Price Forecast: HYPE rally stretches thin amid treasury growth, CFTC innovation push URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/hyperliquid-price-forecast-hype-rally-stretches-thin-amid-treasury-growth-cftc-innovation-push-202608280759 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 07:59:06 GMT

[3] Silver: Consolidation near resistance as positioning builds - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-consolidation-near-resistance-as-positioning-builds-ocbc-202608280755 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 07:55:38 GMT

[4] Germany Unemployment Change below forecasts (5K) in July: Actual (4K) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-unemployment-change-below-forecasts-5k-in-july-actual-4k-202608280755 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 07:55:19 GMT

[5] Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. in line with forecasts (6.4%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-unemployment-rate-sa-in-line-with-forecasts-64-in-july-202608280755 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 07:55:17 GMT

[6] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds gains above $4,600 as bullish bias prevails URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-holds-gains-above-4-600-as-bullish-bias-prevails-202608280744 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 07:44:40 GMT

[7] Indian Rupee: GDP data to show resilience - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-gdp-data-to-show-resilience-dbs-202608280742 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 07:42:40 GMT

[8] Markets began pricing in an uncertainty premium URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/markets-began-pricing-in-an-uncertainty-premium-202608280737 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 07:37:53 GMT

[9] Asia FX: Central banks act as risk managers - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/asia-fx-central-banks-act-as-risk-managers-mufg-202608280733 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 07:33:30 GMT

[10] The commodities feed: Oil prices up even as Hormuz flows increase URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-commodities-feed-oil-prices-up-even-as-hormuz-flows-increase-202608280731 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 07:31:36 GMT

[11] Euro: Range phase caps recent advance against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-range-phase-caps-recent-advance-against-us-dollar-uob-202608280718 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 07:18:43 GMT

[12] Japanese Yen dips further despite hotter inflation, upbeat employment data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-dips-further-despite-higher-inflationary-levels-upbeat-employment-data-202608280715 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 07:15:11 GMT

[13] All eyes on Fed's Warsh URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/all-eyes-on-feds-warsh-202608280712 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 07:12:35 GMT

[14] WTI Price Forecast: Falls to near $82.00 after breaking below nine-day EMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-price-forecast-falls-to-near-8200-after-breaking-below-nine-day-ema-202608280710 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 07:10:26 GMT

[15] Gold rejected at 4,700, EUR/USD corrects, GBP/USD stays bullish [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-rejected-at-4-700-eur-usd-corrects-gbp-usd-stays-bullish-video-202608280708 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 07:08:46 GMT

[16] Japanese Yen: BoJ seen close to September rate hike - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-boj-seen-close-to-september-rate-hike-commerzbank-202608280708 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 07:08:15 GMT

[17] Turkey Trade Balance registered at -7.343B above expectations (-7.4B) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkey-trade-balance-registered-at-7343b-above-expectations-74b-in-july-202608280701 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 07:01:34 GMT

[18] Turkey Economic Confidence Index up to 100.6 in July from previous 99.8 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkey-economic-confidence-index-up-to-1006-in-july-from-previous-998-202608280701 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 07:01:28 GMT

[19] Spain Retail Sales (YoY): -0.3% (July) vs previous 0.5% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-retail-sales-yoy-03-july-vs-previous-05-202608280701 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 07:01:01 GMT

[20] Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 4.5% below forecasts (4.6%) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-yoy-came-in-at-45-below-forecasts-46-in-august-202608280700 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 07:00:57 GMT

[21] Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) came in at 0.6%, below expectations (0.8%) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-mom-came-in-at-06-below-expectations-08-in-august-202608280700 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 07:00:54 GMT

[22] Spain Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 4.3%, above forecasts (4.2%) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-consumer-price-index-yoy-came-in-at-43-above-forecasts-42-in-august-202608280700 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 07:00:49 GMT

[23] Spain Consumer Price Index (MoM) above expectations (0.6%) in August: Actual (0.7%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-consumer-price-index-mom-above-expectations-06-in-august-actual-07-202608280700 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 07:00:48 GMT

[24] Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator registered at 106.7 above expectations (103.3) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/switzerland-kof-leading-indicator-registered-at-1067-above-expectations-1033-in-july-202608280700 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 07:00:18 GMT

[25] Austria Producer Price Index (MoM) climbed from previous 0.1% to 0.3% in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/austria-producer-price-index-mom-climbed-from-previous-01-to-03-in-july-202608280700 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 07:00:18 GMT

[26] Austria Producer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 3.1% to 3.3% in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/austria-producer-price-index-yoy-climbed-from-previous-31-to-33-in-july-202608280700 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 07:00:18 GMT

[27] Brent: Prices firm as OPEC risks grow - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-prices-firm-as-opec-risks-grow-ing-202608280655 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 06:55:58 GMT

[28] NZD/USD Price Forecast: Strengthens above 0.5950, with bullish technical backdrop URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-strengthens-above-05950-with-bullish-technical-backdrop-202608280655 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 06:55:25 GMT

[29] Today's trade levels for Silver [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/todays-trade-levels-for-silver-video-202608280654 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 06:54:08 GMT

[30] The Fed may have fewer options than markets think URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-fed-may-have-fewer-options-than-markets-think-202608280652 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 06:52:29 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (5):

[1] Iran VP says he would have halted enrichment to avoid attack on leader Time: 2026-08-28T07:25:28.572Z

[2] Iran says it has prepared 'surprises' for any future war Time: 2026-08-28T07:21:19.057Z

[3] Iran's Araghchi says diplomacy can resume if US changes approach Time: 2026-08-28T06:51:58.824Z

[4] Iran says envoy, UK minister discussed keeping diplomatic channels open Time: 2026-08-28T06:48:18.468Z

[5] Iran deputy speaker says sanctions bring pressure but not paralysis Time: 2026-08-28T06:30:38.321Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 181 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 3 of 60 normal daily β€” 5.0% of normal
  • Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 319
  • Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 50.0x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS475 (+850% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.8 billion/day economic cost