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2026-W35

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-28 02:01:09 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.0% (3d) | Alignment: 71% (5 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: MIXED β€” Mixed β€” no clear signal consensus

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” DIX 0.451 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.91 balanced
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED GEX +6.7B strong suppression
Breadth βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Breadth 55% β€” mixed participation
Energy 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Energy STABLE β€” no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ— DIVERGENT Copper/Gold -8.6% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.34% restrictive
Correlations πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ— DIVERGENT SPY/VIX -0.21 extreme, SPY/DXY -0.16 normal, SPY/TNX -0.46 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.57 stretched
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 14.5 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 144 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.71 dealer stress
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Stagflation score 22 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED USD/JPY 5d +0.3% stable, MOVE 70 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β€” hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED HY OAS 2.67% benign, NFCI -0.566 loose

Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, energy, and inflation leaning bullish, but growth expectations and correlations haven't signed on yet β€” rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 81/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.451; GEX positive at 6.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.5 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $770.13 | 50 SMA $752.97 | 200 SMA $708.91 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $765.85
  • QQQ: $719.23 | 50 SMA $712.36 | 200 SMA $654.15 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $704.46
  • IWM: $299.85 | 50 SMA $297.04 | 200 SMA $270.76 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $299.35
  • VIX: 14.51 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.672%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $770.13 46.99 50.5 $765.85 Neutral 0.72
QQQ $719.23 47.37 52.9 $704.46 Bearish 0.40
IWM $299.85 51.30 29.9 $299.35 Neutral 1.18

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 14.51 50.37 43.4 $11.06 Neutral 1.09
TNX 46.72 49.36 45.2 - - -
GLD $422.10 71.35 32.2 $409.25 Neutral 0.51
DXY 99.12 39.85 35.9 - - -
SLV $62.67 67.92 10.3 $57.71 Bearish 0.24

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.451
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.72B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.67% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.99%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.47% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 54.7%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 70.6%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 32.0%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 41.5%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Energy 94.7% 0/0
Health Care 75.9% 0/0
Materials 70.8% 0/0
Communication Services 68.4% 0/0
Financials 60.3% 0/0
Consumer Staples 57.6% 0/0
Technology 56.9% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 42.4% 0/0
Industrials 40.3% 0/0
Real Estate 30.8% 0/0
Utilities 13.3% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: STABLE
  • WTI Crude: $83.54 (5d: -4.0%)
  • Brent Crude: $88.56 | Spread: $5.02
  • RBOB Gasoline: $2.9800/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.1700/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.28/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $62.29
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $10.43

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.21 extreme
SPY / DXY -0.158 normal
SPY / TNX -0.459 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.574 stretched

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.86
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 3,801,313.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 3,455,455.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.91 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $559.6B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $772 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $770.13)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
  • Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -10,560 contracts (Z +1.84, as of 2026-08-18)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.67%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.99 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.12
  • Growth vs Value: 0.93
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.31% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.33%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.35%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 22/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,780B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,892B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,042B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,714B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $79,729 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.451, GEX +6.7B, HY OAS 2.67%, breadth 55%.
  • [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -8.6% β€” growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 144 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β€” normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
  • [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=117887B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
  • [INFO] Screener: GE β€” new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 69/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=4760)). Worth a look.
  • [INFO] Screener: FOXA β€” promotion-ready (86d on list, HIGH conviction 64/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=4760)).
  • [INFO] Screener: FOXA β€” new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 64/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=4760)). Worth a look.
  • [INFO] Screener: FIVE β€” new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 75/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=4760)). Worth a look.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: August
  • Average Return: +0.38%
  • Median Return: +1.41%
  • Hit Rate: 65%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
  • Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.9% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑2.3% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.61 (↓6.2% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. N/A
  • AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.2% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.34 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓7.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (25):

[1] Sweden Retail Sales (MoM): -0.2% (July) vs previous 1% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sweden-retail-sales-mom-02-july-vs-previous-1-202608280600 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 06:00:10 GMT

[2] Sweden Retail Sales (YoY) down to 6.2% in July from previous 6.6% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sweden-retail-sales-yoy-down-to-62-in-july-from-previous-66-202608280600 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 06:00:10 GMT

[3] Sweden Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) meets forecasts (1.4%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sweden-gross-domestic-product-qoq-meets-forecasts-14-in-2q-202608280600 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 06:00:09 GMT

[4] Norway Retail Sales declined to -0.7% in July from previous 1.8% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/norway-retail-sales-declined-to-07-in-july-from-previous-18-202608280600 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 06:00:07 GMT

[5] Norway Registered Unemployment n.s.a in line with forecasts (2.1%) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/norway-registered-unemployment-nsa-in-line-with-forecasts-21-in-august-202608280600 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 06:00:06 GMT

[6] Germany Import Price Index (YoY) rose from previous 6.1% to 6.8% in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-import-price-index-yoy-rose-from-previous-61-to-68-in-july-202608280600 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 06:00:06 GMT

[7] Germany Import Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.2%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-import-price-index-mom-meets-forecasts-02-in-july-202608280600 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 06:00:06 GMT

[8] Leisure affordability across CEE region URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/leisure-affordability-across-cee-region-202608280555 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 05:55:30 GMT

[9] Warsh's Jackson Hole speech takes centre stage URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/warshs-jackson-hole-speech-takes-centre-stage-202608280552 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 05:52:21 GMT

[10] EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Holds ground above 185.50 near nine-day EMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-price-forecast-holds-ground-above-18550-near-nine-day-ema-202608280551 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 05:51:42 GMT

[11] Focal points going into the weekend include news flow on JP issuance, and of course Jackson Hole URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/focal-points-going-into-the-weekend-include-news-flow-on-jp-issuance-and-of-course-jackson-hole-202608280548 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 05:48:42 GMT

[12] Cardano Price Forecast: Whale accumulation fails to dispel uncertain ADA outlook URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cardano-price-forecast-whale-accumulation-fails-to-dispel-uncertain-ada-outlook-202608280524 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 05:24:50 GMT

[13] Pi Network Price Forecast: PI holds steady as Core Team focuses on distributed AI infrastructure URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/pi-network-price-forecast-pi-holds-steady-as-core-team-focuses-on-distributed-ai-infrastructure-202608280514 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 05:14:29 GMT

[14] Abu Dhabi royal backs 49% stake in Trump-linked crypto bank venture: WSJ URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/abu-dhabi-royal-backs-49-stake-in-trump-linked-crypto-bank-venture-wsj-202608280512 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 05:12:37 GMT

[15] Canadian Dollar flatlines as traders await Jackson Hole Symposium URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-flatlines-as-traders-await-jackson-hole-symposium-202608280510 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 05:10:43 GMT

[16] Morning briefing: The US treasury yields have inched up further URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/morning-briefing-the-us-treasury-yields-have-inched-up-further-202608280507 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 05:07:37 GMT

[17] Saudi Arabia Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/saudi-arabia-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608280505 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 05:05:06 GMT

[18] Philippines Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/philippines-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608280501 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 05:01:09 GMT

[19] United Arab Emirates Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-arab-emirates-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608280456 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 04:56:46 GMT

[20] Pakistan Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pakistan-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608280452 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 04:52:18 GMT

[21] United States Dollar Index steadies above 99.00 before Fed Chair Warsh speech URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-steadies-above-9900-before-fed-chair-warsh-speech-202608280448 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 04:48:03 GMT

[22] India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608280435 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 04:35:21 GMT

[23] Malaysia Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/malaysia-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608280430 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 04:30:43 GMT

[24] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD slips below $69.00 ahead of Fed Chair speech URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-slips-below-6900-ahead-of-fed-chair-speech-202608280408 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 04:08:38 GMT

[25] Elliott Wave perspective: SPY finalizing impulsive leg prior to larger‑cycle retracement [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/elliott-wave-perspective-spy-finalizing-impulsive-leg-prior-to-larger-cycle-retracement-video-202608280404 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 04:04:34 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (3):

[1] Iran Basij chief says US economic pressure targets production, trade Time: 2026-08-28T05:27:33.616Z

[2] Iran lawmaker says sanctions failed to cripple economy Time: 2026-08-28T05:18:38.194Z

[3] Job losses hit 20,000 workers in Iran's Hormozgan, labor official says Time: 2026-08-28T04:19:35.093Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 181 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 3 of 60 normal daily β€” 5.0% of normal
  • Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 280
  • Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 58.3x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS475 (+850% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost