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2026-W35

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-28 08:01:10 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.0% (3d) | Alignment: 71% (5 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: MIXED β€” Mixed β€” no clear signal consensus

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” DIX 0.451 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.91 balanced
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED GEX +6.7B strong suppression
Breadth βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Breadth 55% β€” mixed participation
Energy 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Energy STABLE β€” no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ— DIVERGENT Copper/Gold -8.6% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.34% restrictive
Correlations πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ— DIVERGENT SPY/VIX -0.21 extreme, SPY/DXY -0.16 normal, SPY/TNX -0.46 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.57 stretched
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 14.5 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 144 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.71 dealer stress
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Stagflation score 22 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED USD/JPY 5d +0.3% stable, MOVE 70 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β€” hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED HY OAS 2.67% benign, NFCI -0.566 loose

Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, energy, and inflation leaning bullish, but growth expectations and correlations haven't signed on yet β€” rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 81/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.451; GEX positive at 6.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.5 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $770.13 | 50 SMA $752.97 | 200 SMA $708.91 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $765.85
  • QQQ: $719.23 | 50 SMA $712.36 | 200 SMA $654.15 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $704.46
  • IWM: $299.85 | 50 SMA $297.04 | 200 SMA $270.76 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $299.35
  • VIX: 14.51 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.672%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $770.13 46.99 50.5 $765.85 Neutral 0.72
QQQ $719.23 47.37 52.9 $704.46 Bearish 0.40
IWM $299.85 51.30 29.9 $299.35 Neutral 1.18

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 14.51 50.37 43.4 $11.06 Neutral 1.09
TNX 46.72 49.36 45.2 - - -
GLD $422.10 71.35 32.2 $409.25 Neutral 0.51
DXY 99.12 39.85 35.9 - - -
SLV $62.67 67.92 10.3 $57.71 Bearish 0.24

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.451
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.72B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.67% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.99%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.47% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 54.7%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 70.6%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 32.0%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 41.5%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Energy 94.7% 0/0
Health Care 75.9% 0/0
Materials 70.8% 0/0
Communication Services 68.4% 0/0
Financials 60.3% 0/0
Consumer Staples 57.6% 0/0
Technology 56.9% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 42.4% 0/0
Industrials 40.3% 0/0
Real Estate 30.8% 0/0
Utilities 13.3% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: STABLE
  • WTI Crude: $83.54 (5d: -4.0%)
  • Brent Crude: $88.56 | Spread: $5.02
  • RBOB Gasoline: $2.9800/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.1700/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.28/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $62.29
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $10.43

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.21 extreme
SPY / DXY -0.158 normal
SPY / TNX -0.459 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.574 stretched

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.86
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 3,801,313.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 3,455,455.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.91 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $559.6B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $772 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $770.13)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
  • Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -10,560 contracts (Z +1.84, as of 2026-08-18)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.67%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.99 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.12
  • Growth vs Value: 0.93
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.31% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.33%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.35%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 22/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,780B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,892B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,042B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,714B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $79,606 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.451, GEX +6.7B, HY OAS 2.67%, breadth 55%.
  • [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -8.6% β€” growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 144 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β€” normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~56h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~32h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~32h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=117887B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).

Seasonality

  • Current Month: August
  • Average Return: +0.38%
  • Median Return: +1.41%
  • Hit Rate: 65%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
  • Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.9% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑2.3% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.61 (↓6.2% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. N/A
  • AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.2% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.34 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓7.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (25):

[1] Massive Yen selling gets absorbed: Is USD/JPY setting up for a reversal? [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/massive-yen-selling-gets-absorbed-is-usd-jpy-setting-up-for-a-reversal-video-202608281200 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 12:00:20 GMT

[2] Federal Reserve: Markets eye Warsh signals - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/federal-reserve-markets-eye-warsh-signals-rabobank-202608281154 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 11:54:52 GMT

[3] Platinum: Bullish bias holds as breakout test looms - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/platinum-bullish-bias-holds-as-breakout-test-looms-ocbc-202608281144 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 11:44:40 GMT

[4] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds above $4.600 with all eyes on Fed Warsh's speech URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-holds-above-4600-with-all-eyes-on-fed-warshs-speech-202608281142 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 11:42:18 GMT

[5] $40 trillion debt, three Fed events - Is this Gold and Silver's most explosive setup of 2026? [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/40-trillion-debt-three-fed-events-is-this-gold-and-silvers-most-explosive-setup-of-2026-video-202608281136 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 11:36:11 GMT

[6] Euro: ECB vigilance and inflation risks - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-ecb-vigilance-and-inflation-risks-bny-202608281133 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 11:33:56 GMT

[7] India FX Reserves, USD up to $72933B in August 17 from previous $716.91B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-fx-reserves-usd-up-to-72933b-in-august-17-from-previous-71691b-202608281130 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 11:30:42 GMT

[8] US Dollar: Jackson Hole scenarios shape FX risk - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-jackson-hole-scenarios-shape-fx-risk-mufg-202608281125 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 11:25:20 GMT

[9] Canadian Dollar awaits fresh catalyst with Warsh, GDP data in focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-awaits-fresh-catalyst-with-warsh-gdp-data-in-focus-202608281112 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 11:12:19 GMT

[10] Brazilian Real: Election polls and carry underpin BRL - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazilian-real-election-polls-and-carry-underpin-brl-ing-202608281108 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 11:08:39 GMT

[11] No energy spillovers to core inflation in Europe URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/no-energy-spillovers-to-core-inflation-in-europe-202608281106 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 11:06:34 GMT

[12] Brazil Inflation Index/IGP-M above forecasts (-0.25%) in August: Actual (-0.22%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazil-inflation-index-igp-m-above-forecasts-025-in-august-actual-022-202608281100 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 11:00:08 GMT

[13] Gold awaits Jackson Hole: All eyes on Fed policy signals URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-awaits-jackson-hole-all-eyes-on-fed-policy-signals-202608281055 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 10:55:31 GMT

[14] Indexes up, market down, hawks out - Warsh on deck URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/indexes-up-market-down-hawks-out-warsh-on-deck-202608281053 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 10:53:31 GMT

[15] "State terrorism": Iran condemns new US economic measures URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/state-terrorism-iran-condemns-new-us-economic-measures-202608281051 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 10:51:52 GMT

[16] India Manufacturing Output: 7.3% (July) vs previous 7.8% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-manufacturing-output-73-july-vs-previous-78-202608281040 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 10:40:55 GMT

[17] India Industrial Output came in at 6.7%, above expectations (6%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-industrial-output-came-in-at-67-above-expectations-6-in-july-202608281040 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 10:40:53 GMT

[18] India Cumulative Industrial Output rose from previous 5.8% to 6.3% in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-cumulative-industrial-output-rose-from-previous-58-to-63-in-july-202608281040 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 10:40:46 GMT

[19] Australian Dollar tests three-month highs above 0.7200 with all eyes on Fed's Warsh URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-tests-three-month-highs-above-07200-with-all-eyes-on-feds-warsh-202608281039 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 10:39:30 GMT

[20] The Dollar: All eyes on Jackson Hole URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-dollar-all-eyes-on-jackson-hole-202608281037 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 10:37:59 GMT

[21] Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rally loses steam despite steady ETF inflows URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-today-bitcoin-ethereum-xrp-rally-loses-steam-despite-steady-etf-inflows-202608281024 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 10:24:41 GMT

[22] Cautious optimism ahead of Fed Chair Warsh speech at Jackson Hole URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/cautious-optimism-ahead-of-fed-chair-warsh-speech-at-jackson-hole-202608281017 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 10:17:37 GMT

[23] Upside bias equals an up day URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/upside-bias-equals-an-up-day-202608281007 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 10:07:27 GMT

[24] "Anything else would likely put the Japanese Yen under significant pressure": Commerzbank on why BoJ should hike rates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/anything-else-would-likely-put-the-japanese-yen-under-significant-pressure-commerzbank-on-why-boj-should-hike-rates-202608281002 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 10:02:00 GMT

[25] Canadian Dollar: Trade war clouds Q2 GDP rebound - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-trade-war-clouds-q2-gdp-rebound-bbh-202608281001 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 10:01:04 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (5):

[1] Germany condemns Iranian general's threat against journalists abroad Time: 2026-08-28T11:35:56.688Z

[2] Iranian banks and businesses remain open in Dubai despite Trump's D-Day - WSJ Time: 2026-08-28T11:33:12.435Z

[3] Trump says Strait of Hormuz open, Iran response 'very mild' - Axios Time: 2026-08-28T10:21:08.122Z

[4] Iran urges countries not to enforce new US sanctions Time: 2026-08-28T10:13:10.990Z

[5] Iran deputy FM attacks Trump over Hormuz territory post Time: 2026-08-28T10:08:12.285Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 181 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 5 of 60 normal daily β€” 9.3% of normal
  • Throughput: 8.3% of normal (0.8M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 319
  • Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 50.0x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS185 (+270% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost