Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-26 06:00:49 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 75% (6 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.469 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.99 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +5.6B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 60% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Copper/Gold -7.3% growth collapse · real yield 2.40% restrictive
Correlations	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	SPY/VIX -0.20 extreme, SPY/DXY -0.07 normal, SPY/TNX -0.49 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.68 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.4 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 143 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.54 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 21 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d -0.2% stable, MOVE 72 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.69% benign, NFCI -0.559 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally — gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (75% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 83/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.469; GEX positive at 5.6B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.4 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $765.89 | 50 SMA $752.26 | 200 SMA $707.99 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $765.38
QQQ: $711.30 | 50 SMA $713.23 | 200 SMA $653.22 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $706.85
IWM: $299.21 | 50 SMA $296.83 | 200 SMA $270.19 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $298.26
VIX: 15.45 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.639%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$765.89	40.50	50.4	$765.38	Neutral	1.00
QQQ	$711.30	36.83	54.4	$706.85	Neutral	0.71
IWM	$299.21	43.35	30.2	$298.26	Neutral	1.37

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.45	46.30	43.5	$11.06	Neutral	1.11
TNX	46.39	58.69	41.9	-	-	-
GLD	$428.07	82.23	31.7	$407.00	Bearish	0.12
DXY	98.91	35.61	38.5	-	-	-
SLV	$62.08	73.72	11.5	$57.66	Bearish	0.29

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.62B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.69% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 1.00%
2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 59.9%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 72.4%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 491
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	84.2%	0/0
Health Care	83.3%	0/0
Communication Services	78.9%	0/0
Consumer Staples	71.9%	0/0
Materials	70.8%	0/0
Financials	66.2%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	60.3%	0/0
Real Estate	50.0%	0/0
Technology	49.2%	0/0
Industrials	41.5%	0/0
Utilities	16.7%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $81.11 (5d: -5.5%)
Brent Crude: $85.86 | Spread: $4.75
RBOB Gasoline: $2.8900/gal
Heating Oil: $4.0600/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.65/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $62.06
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.23

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.199	extreme
SPY / DXY	-0.069	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.492	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.681	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 71.92
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,314,209.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,281,899.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.99 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $505.2B
Gamma Call Wall: $770 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $765.89)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) · below 20d

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -10,560 contracts (Z +1.84, as of 2026-08-18)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -4.4% (as of 2026-08-19)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.64%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.93 (Normal)
DXY: 98.91
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.32% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.32%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
Stagflation Risk Score: 21/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6745.7B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $953.6B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,792B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,912B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,047B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,751B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $78,417 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.469, GEX +5.6B, HY OAS 2.69%, breadth 60%.
[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -7.3% — growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
[WARNING] SKEW at 143 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~294h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~54h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.35%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 23218 | Prev: 23115.2

Earnings:

NVDA: EPS Est. $2.09 (↑0.6% vs 30d)

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
Industrial Production: 2026-09-18

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.9% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑2.3% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.76 (↓4.1% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.2% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓6.8% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (26):

[1] Gold remains on its pedestal: All eyes on PCE URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-remains-on-its-pedestal-all-eyes-on-pce-202608260959 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 09:59:31 GMT

[2] WTI Oil drops below $80 amid hopes of Hormuz reopening, US-Iran de-escalation URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-oil-drops-below-80-amid-hopes-of-hormuz-reopening-us-iran-de-escalation-202608260957 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 09:57:06 GMT

[3] Nvidia: How will the company perform as its switches from a chip maker to an AI finance house? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nvidia-how-will-the-company-perform-as-its-switches-from-a-chip-maker-to-an-ai-finance-house-202608260956 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 09:56:46 GMT

[4] Australian Dollar: Watching 0.7200 resistance against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-watching-07200-resistance-against-us-dollar-uob-202608260955 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 09:55:04 GMT

[5] Hungarian Forint: Recovery tied to euro entry story - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/hungarian-forint-recovery-tied-to-euro-entry-story-ing-202608260940 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 09:40:38 GMT

[6] Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608260933 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 09:33:36 GMT

[7] US Dollar Index: Range trade persists as data soft - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-range-trade-persists-as-data-soft-dbs-202608260925 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 09:25:46 GMT

[8] Stock markets are well supported at this stage URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/stock-markets-are-well-supported-at-this-stage-202608260915 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 09:15:56 GMT

[9] WTI price outlook: US Crude Oil spot pressing against 0.618 aupport Arc URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/wti-price-outlook-us-crude-oil-spot-pressing-against-0618-aupport-arc-202608260912 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 09:12:47 GMT

[10] EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Tests nine-day EMA confluence support near 185.00 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-price-forecast-tests-nine-day-ema-confluence-support-near-18500-202608260912 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 09:12:15 GMT

[11] Brent: Diplomatic progress weighs on prices - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-diplomatic-progress-weighs-on-prices-ocbc-202608260907 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 09:07:10 GMT

[12] US Dollar: Shaky basis trade risks weigh - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-shaky-basis-trade-risks-weigh-commerzbank-202608260859 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 08:59:01 GMT

[13] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD bulls await break above $70.00 amid mixed setup URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-bulls-await-break-above-7000-amid-mixed-setup-202608260857 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 08:57:03 GMT

[14] Swiss Franc ticks up against US Dollar despite bright Swiss ZEW economic expectations URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-ticks-up-against-us-dollar-despite-bright-swiss-zew-economic-expectations-202608260848 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 08:48:00 GMT

[15] Australian Dollar remains stronger as CPI YoY climbs in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-remains-stronger-as-cpi-yoy-climbs-in-july-202608260847 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 08:47:39 GMT

[16] Oil is being sold off on the back of sanctions news URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/oil-is-being-sold-off-on-the-back-of-sanctions-news-202608260846 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 08:46:44 GMT

[17] FX daily: Lower energy helps Bessent's plans URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/fx-daily-lower-energy-helps-bessents-plans-202608260845 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 08:45:19 GMT

[18] AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Rally extends further to near 114.30 as hawkish RBA bets accelerate URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-jpy-price-forecast-rally-extends-further-to-near-11430-as-hawkish-rba-bets-accelerate-202608260840 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 08:40:19 GMT

[19] Australian Dollar: RBA risks seen underpriced - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-rba-risks-seen-underpriced-mufg-202608260836 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 08:36:49 GMT

[20] Euro advances against Canadian Dollar amid falling oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-advances-against-canadian-dollar-amid-falling-oil-prices-202608260828 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 08:28:46 GMT

[21] July's US PCE rates to shake the markets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/julys-us-pce-rates-to-shake-the-markets-202608260828 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 08:28:43 GMT

[22] Forex Today: US Dollar extends consolidation ahead of key inflation data, Nvidia earnings URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-us-dollar-extends-consolidation-ahead-of-key-inflation-data-nvidia-earnings-202608260815 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 08:15:41 GMT

[23] Euro: Schnabel's upbeat tone supports against US Dollar - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-schnabels-upbeat-tone-supports-against-us-dollar-ing-202608260812 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 08:12:59 GMT

[24] Dow Jones futures hold flat as traders await US PCE inflation data, Nvidia earnings URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-hold-flat-as-traders-await-us-pce-inflation-data-nvidia-earnings-202608260806 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 08:06:27 GMT

[25] Japanese Yen: Range-bound trading outlook against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-range-bound-trading-outlook-against-us-dollar-uob-202608260804 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 08:04:35 GMT

[26] The July PCE price deflators, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, are on tap URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-july-pce-price-deflators-the-feds-preferred-inflation-gauge-are-on-tap-202608260800 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 08:00:52 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (5):

[1] Saudi Aramco offers more oil to China outside Strait of Hormuz - Reuters Time: 2026-08-26T09:42:46.676Z

[2] Iran says controlled explosions possible near Isfahan Time: 2026-08-26T09:38:09.890Z

[3] Netanyahu says Trump backed tougher pressure on Iran Time: 2026-08-26T09:01:32.920Z

[4] Iran says military doctrine has shifted from defense to offense Time: 2026-08-26T08:24:22.074Z

[5] Explosions possible near Tehran during munitions disposal, Iran says Time: 2026-08-26T08:10:02.432Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 179 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 3 of 60 normal daily — 5.0% of normal
Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 150
Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 50.0x normal
Tanker Rates: WS245 (+390% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost