Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-26 04:01:03 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 75% (6 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.469 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.99 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +5.6B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 60% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Copper/Gold -7.3% growth collapse · real yield 2.40% restrictive
Correlations	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	SPY/VIX -0.20 extreme, SPY/DXY -0.07 normal, SPY/TNX -0.49 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.68 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.4 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 143 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.54 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 21 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d -0.2% stable, MOVE 72 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.69% benign, NFCI -0.559 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally — gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (75% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 83/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.469; GEX positive at 5.6B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.4 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $765.89 | 50 SMA $752.26 | 200 SMA $707.99 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $765.38
QQQ: $711.30 | 50 SMA $713.23 | 200 SMA $653.22 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $706.85
IWM: $299.21 | 50 SMA $296.83 | 200 SMA $270.19 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $298.26
VIX: 15.45 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.639%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$765.89	40.50	50.4	$765.38	Neutral	1.00
QQQ	$711.30	36.83	54.4	$706.85	Neutral	0.71
IWM	$299.21	43.35	30.2	$298.26	Neutral	1.37

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.45	46.30	43.5	$11.06	Neutral	1.11
TNX	46.39	58.69	41.9	-	-	-
GLD	$428.07	82.23	31.7	$407.00	Bearish	0.12
DXY	98.91	35.61	38.5	-	-	-
SLV	$62.08	73.72	11.5	$57.66	Bearish	0.29

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.62B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.69% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 1.00%
2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 59.9%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 72.4%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 491
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	84.2%	0/0
Health Care	83.3%	0/0
Communication Services	78.9%	0/0
Consumer Staples	71.9%	0/0
Materials	70.8%	0/0
Financials	66.2%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	60.3%	0/0
Real Estate	50.0%	0/0
Technology	49.2%	0/0
Industrials	41.5%	0/0
Utilities	16.7%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $81.11 (5d: -5.5%)
Brent Crude: $85.86 | Spread: $4.75
RBOB Gasoline: $2.8900/gal
Heating Oil: $4.0600/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.65/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $62.06
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.23

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.199	extreme
SPY / DXY	-0.069	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.492	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.681	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 71.92
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,314,209.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,281,899.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.99 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $505.2B
Gamma Call Wall: $770 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $765.89)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) · below 20d

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -10,560 contracts (Z +1.84, as of 2026-08-18)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -4.4% (as of 2026-08-19)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.64%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.93 (Normal)
DXY: 98.91
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.32% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.32%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
Stagflation Risk Score: 21/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6745.7B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $953.6B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,792B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,912B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,047B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,751B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $78,903 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.469, GEX +5.6B, HY OAS 2.69%, breadth 60%.
[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -7.3% — growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
[WARNING] SKEW at 143 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~294h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~54h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.35%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 23218 | Prev: 23115.2

Earnings:

NVDA: EPS Est. $2.09 (↑0.6% vs 30d)

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
Industrial Production: 2026-09-18

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.9% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑2.3% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.76 (↓4.1% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.2% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓6.8% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (29):

[1] Switzerland ZEW Survey - Expectations up to 12.1 in August from previous 10 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/switzerland-zew-survey-expectations-up-to-121-in-august-from-previous-10-202608260800 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 08:00:00 GMT

[2] US core PCE inflation set to keep pressure on the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-core-pce-inflation-set-to-keep-pressure-on-the-federal-reserve-to-hike-interest-rates-202608260800 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 08:00:00 GMT

[3] US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Bears prevail with the 200-day SMA capping rallies URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-price-forecast-bears-prevail-with-the-200-day-sma-capping-rallies-202608260758 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 07:58:26 GMT

[4] US aluminium market will remain tight despite latest tariff changes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/us-aluminium-market-will-remain-tight-despite-latest-tariff-changes-202608260754 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 07:54:59 GMT

[5] Euro holds above mid-1.1600s vs USD; looks to US PCE data for fresh impetus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-holds-above-mid-11600s-vs-usd-looks-to-us-pce-data-for-fresh-impetus-202608260754 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 07:54:28 GMT

[6] British Pound weakens against Japanese Yen amid hawkish BoJ prospects URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-weakens-against-japanese-yen-amid-hawkish-boj-prospects-202608260748 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 07:48:28 GMT

[7] Brent: Prices extend sharp decline - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-prices-extend-sharp-decline-deutsche-bank-202608260744 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 07:44:35 GMT

[8] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises to near $69.00 ahead of US PCE inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-rises-to-near-6900-ahead-of-us-pce-inflation-data-202608260742 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 07:42:22 GMT

[9] Markets wait for direction as commodities send mixed signals URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/markets-wait-for-direction-as-commodities-send-mixed-signals-202608260741 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 07:41:05 GMT

[10] Drovix launches in-house multi-asset liquidity and execution stack for sub-millisecond fills, tighter spreads URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/drovix-launches-in-house-multi-asset-liquidity-and-execution-stack-for-sub-millisecond-fills-tighter-spreads-202608260732 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 07:32:53 GMT

[11] US Dollar: Buyback impact stays marginal - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-buyback-impact-stays-marginal-bny-202608260729 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 07:29:50 GMT

[12] STARTRADER launches XAUUSD247, extending Gold CFD access across the full week URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/startrader-launches-xauusd247-extending-gold-cfd-access-across-the-full-week-202608260726 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 07:26:19 GMT

[13] Euro wavers within range against British Pound with markets calm and little data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-wavers-within-range-against-british-pound-with-markets-calm-and-little-data-202608260719 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 07:19:49 GMT

[14] Hungarian Forint: MNB caution offers modest HUF support - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/hungarian-forint-mnb-caution-offers-modest-huf-support-commerzbank-202608260718 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 07:18:20 GMT

[15] IUX launches new education webinar series to support traders' financial literacy URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/iux-launches-new-education-webinar-series-to-support-traders-financial-literacy-202608260717 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 07:17:29 GMT

[16] STARTRADER adds 30 US stock and ETF CFDs as 2026 product expansion accelerates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/startrader-adds-30-us-stock-and-etf-cfds-as-2026-product-expansion-accelerates-202608260713 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 07:13:38 GMT

[17] NZD/USD Price Forecast: Dips below 0.5950, fresh weekly low as USD firms ahead of US PCE URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-dips-below-05950-fresh-weekly-low-as-usd-firms-ahead-of-us-pce-202608260709 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 07:09:31 GMT

[18] Euro: Holds near 1.1670 against US Dollar as rate moves offset - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-holds-near-11670-against-us-dollar-as-rate-moves-offset-danske-bank-202608260709 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 07:09:18 GMT

[19] ECB sets for September rate hike with no appetite to signal more - RTE URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecb-sets-for-september-rate-hike-with-no-appetite-to-signal-more-rte-202608260701 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 07:01:51 GMT

[20] Hyperliquid Price Forecast: HYPE eyes record high on rising revenue, ETF inflows URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/hyperliquid-price-forecast-hype-eyes-record-high-on-rising-revenue-etf-inflows-202608260658 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 06:58:17 GMT

[21] British Pound edges lower below 1.3650 as traders await US PCE release URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-edges-lower-below-13650-as-traders-await-us-pce-release-202608260656 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 06:56:39 GMT

[22] British Pound: Upside remains intact above 1.3605 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-upside-remains-intact-above-13605-against-us-dollar-uob-202608260656 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 06:56:00 GMT

[23] USD/JPY Price Forecast: 20-day EMA continues to act as key barrier URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-20-day-ema-continues-to-act-as-key-barrier-202608260649 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 06:49:37 GMT

[24] Equities: Tech-led gains with softer Oil - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-tech-led-gains-with-softer-oil-deutsche-bank-202608260647 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 06:47:35 GMT

[25] Nvidia and US PCE data in focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/nvidia-and-us-pce-data-in-focus-202608260640 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 06:40:57 GMT

[26] US Dollar: Core PCE and Warsh remarks in focus - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-core-pce-and-warsh-remarks-in-focus-ocbc-202608260639 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 06:39:26 GMT

[27] Australian Dollar: RBA waits as inflation sticks - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-rba-waits-as-inflation-sticks-commerzbank-202608260630 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 06:30:46 GMT

[28] Canadian Dollar gives away gains amid lower oil prices, fresh trade tensions URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-gives-away-gains-amid-lower-oil-prices-fresh-trade-tensions-202608260624 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 06:24:57 GMT

[29] Oil: Prices retreat on Gulf diplomacy - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-prices-retreat-on-gulf-diplomacy-ing-202608260620 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 06:20:48 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (7):

[1] Two supertankers carry 4 million barrels of Saudi oil to China - Reuters Time: 2026-08-26T07:56:05.819Z

[2] Iranian, Russian presidents to meet on sidelines of Kyrgyzstan summit Time: 2026-08-26T07:34:24.496Z

[3] Iran lawmaker urges greater transparency over war, economic pressures Time: 2026-08-26T07:25:31.033Z

[4] Iran may take preemptive action if enemy rhetoric becomes serious threat, MP says Time: 2026-08-26T07:16:43.077Z

[5] Iran calls for faster implementation of agreements with China Time: 2026-08-26T07:01:56.142Z

[6] Iran to expand production of air-defense systems tested in war Time: 2026-08-26T06:57:24.175Z

[7] Iran says oil output exceeds figures reported by international sources Time: 2026-08-26T06:06:47.452Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 179 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily — 1.7% of normal
Throughput: 1.5% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 401
Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 50.0x normal
Tanker Rates: WS475 (+850% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost