Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-26 02:01:09 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 75% (6 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.469 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.99 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +5.6B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 60% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Copper/Gold -7.3% growth collapse · real yield 2.40% restrictive
Correlations	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	SPY/VIX -0.20 extreme, SPY/DXY -0.07 normal, SPY/TNX -0.49 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.68 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.4 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 143 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.54 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 21 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d -0.2% stable, MOVE 72 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.69% benign, NFCI -0.559 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally — gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (75% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 83/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.469; GEX positive at 5.6B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.4 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $765.89 | 50 SMA $752.26 | 200 SMA $707.99 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $765.38
QQQ: $711.30 | 50 SMA $713.23 | 200 SMA $653.22 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $706.85
IWM: $299.21 | 50 SMA $296.83 | 200 SMA $270.19 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $298.26
VIX: 15.45 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.639%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$765.89	40.50	50.4	$765.38	Neutral	1.00
QQQ	$711.30	36.83	54.4	$706.85	Neutral	0.71
IWM	$299.21	43.35	30.2	$298.26	Neutral	1.37

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.45	46.30	43.5	$11.06	Neutral	1.11
TNX	46.39	58.69	41.9	-	-	-
GLD	$428.07	82.23	31.7	$407.00	Bearish	0.12
DXY	98.91	35.61	38.5	-	-	-
SLV	$62.08	73.72	11.5	$57.66	Bearish	0.29

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.62B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.69% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 1.00%
2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 59.9%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 72.4%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 491
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	84.2%	0/0
Health Care	83.3%	0/0
Communication Services	78.9%	0/0
Consumer Staples	71.9%	0/0
Materials	70.8%	0/0
Financials	66.2%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	60.3%	0/0
Real Estate	50.0%	0/0
Technology	49.2%	0/0
Industrials	41.5%	0/0
Utilities	16.7%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $81.11 (5d: -5.5%)
Brent Crude: $85.86 | Spread: $4.75
RBOB Gasoline: $2.8900/gal
Heating Oil: $4.0600/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.65/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $62.06
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.23

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.199	extreme
SPY / DXY	-0.069	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.492	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.681	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 71.92
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,314,209.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,281,899.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.99 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $505.2B
Gamma Call Wall: $766 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $765.89)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) · below 20d

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -10,560 contracts (Z +1.84, as of 2026-08-18)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -4.4% (as of 2026-08-19)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.64%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.93 (Normal)
DXY: 98.91
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.32% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.32%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
Stagflation Risk Score: 21/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6745.7B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $953.6B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,792B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,912B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,047B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,751B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $79,063 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~294h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~54h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.469, GEX +5.6B, HY OAS 2.69%, breadth 60%.
[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -7.3% — growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
[WARNING] SKEW at 143 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.35%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 23218 | Prev: 23115.2

Earnings:

NVDA: EPS Est. $2.09 (↑0.6% vs 30d)

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
Industrial Production: 2026-09-18

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.9% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑2.3% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.76 (↓4.1% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.2% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓6.8% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (28):

[1] Sweden Producer Price Index (YoY) dipped from previous 7.4% to 6.4% in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sweden-producer-price-index-yoy-dipped-from-previous-74-to-64-in-july-202608260600 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 06:00:03 GMT

[2] Sweden Producer Price Index (MoM): 0.1% (July) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sweden-producer-price-index-mom-01-july-202608260600 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 06:00:03 GMT

[3] CEE support to Ukraine extends beyond transfers URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/cee-support-to-ukraine-extends-beyond-transfers-202608260558 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 05:58:16 GMT

[4] US-Canada trade war escalates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/us-canada-trade-war-escalates-202608260551 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 05:51:44 GMT

[5] AUD/USD Price Forecast: Hot Australian CPI data boosts hawkish RBA bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-forecast-hot-australian-cpi-data-boosts-hawkish-rba-bets-202608260548 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 05:48:37 GMT

[6] Oil prices extend decline towards $80/bbl amid Iran-related optimism URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/oil-prices-extend-decline-towards-80-bbl-amid-iran-related-optimism-202608260545 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 05:45:23 GMT

[7] ECB's Schnabel: Inflation likely to top 2% for extended period URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecbs-schnabel-inflation-likely-to-top-2-for-extended-period-202608260541 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 05:41:17 GMT

[8] EUR/USD Price Forecast: Declines to near 1.1650, overbought signals curb upside bias URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-declines-to-near-11650-overbought-signals-curb-upside-bias-202608260536 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 05:36:51 GMT

[9] Swiss Franc weakens as US Dollar gains ahead of PCE inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-weakens-as-us-dollar-gains-ahead-of-pce-inflation-data-202608260528 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 05:28:59 GMT

[10] Cryptocurrencies Price Prediction: Dogecoin, Bitcoin & Ethereum - Asian Wrap 26 August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-dogecoin-bitcoin-ethereum-asian-wrap-26-august-202608260513 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 05:13:48 GMT

[11] Saudi Arabia Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/saudi-arabia-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608260505 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 05:05:32 GMT

[12] Philippines Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/philippines-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608260500 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 05:00:03 GMT

[13] Singapore Industrial Production (MoM): 2.3% (July) vs -7.2% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-industrial-production-mom-23-july-vs-72-202608260500 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 05:00:01 GMT

[14] Singapore Industrial Production (YoY) above expectations (6.6%) in July: Actual (6.8%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-industrial-production-yoy-above-expectations-66-in-july-actual-68-202608260500 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 05:00:01 GMT

[15] Meme Coins Price Prediction: Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, Pepe - Profit-taking cools last week's rally URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/meme-coins-price-prediction-dogecoin-shiba-inu-pepe-profit-taking-cools-last-weeks-rally-202608260457 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 04:57:43 GMT

[16] United Arab Emirates Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-arab-emirates-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608260455 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 04:55:16 GMT

[17] Bitcoin signals early bull-market phase, $83K remains key confirmation level -- CryptoQuant URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-signals-early-bull-market-phase-83k-remains-key-confirmation-level-cryptoquant-202608260453 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 04:53:30 GMT

[18] Asian stock markets gain as oil extends downfall, eyes on Jackson Hall Symposium URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/asian-stock-markets-gain-as-oil-extends-downfall-eyes-on-jackson-hall-symposium-202608260452 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 04:52:55 GMT

[19] WTI Price Forecast: Seems vulnerable below $80.00 as break below 50% Fibo. comes into play URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-price-forecast-seems-vulnerable-below-8000-as-break-below-50-fibo-comes-into-play-202608260448 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 04:48:39 GMT

[20] Indonesian Rupiah remains subdued amid market caution, external headwinds URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesian-rupiah-remains-subdued-amid-market-caution-external-headwinds-202608260447 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 04:47:09 GMT

[21] Pakistan Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pakistan-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608260445 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 04:45:06 GMT

[22] United States Dollar Index recovers to near 99.00 ahead of US PCE inflation data
URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-recovers-to-near-9900-ahead-of-us-pce-inflation-data-202608260442 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 04:42:51 GMT

[23] India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608260435 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 04:35:21 GMT

[24] Morning briefing: EUR/USD needs a sustained move above 1.1700 to regain upside momentum URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/morning-briefing-eur-usd-needs-a-sustained-move-above-11700-to-regain-upside-momentum-202608260433 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 04:33:58 GMT

[25] Malaysia Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/malaysia-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608260430 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 04:30:15 GMT

[26] Japan's Kiuchi: CPI expected to gradually rise due to Middle East conditions URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japans-kiuchi-cpi-expected-to-gradually-rise-due-to-middle-east-conditions-202608260423 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 04:23:43 GMT

[27] British Pound edges lower but remains close to multi-month top as USD awaits US PCE URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-edges-lower-but-remains-close-to-multi-month-top-as-usd-awaits-us-pce-202608260407 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 04:07:11 GMT

[28] EUR/USD Price Forecast: Remains sideways ahead of key US events URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-remains-sideways-ahead-of-key-us-events-202608260404 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 04:04:13 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (3):

[1] Iran promotes former supreme leader's life story to Thai audiences Time: 2026-08-26T05:57:06.029Z

[2] Pakistan, Oman mediation visits are White House deception operation - Kayhan Time: 2026-08-26T05:30:06.840Z

[3] Five commodity vessels transit Hormuz - Reuters Time: 2026-08-26T04:30:47.898Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 179 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily — 1.7% of normal
Throughput: 1.8% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 402
Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 56.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS475 (+850% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost