Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-26 00:01:13 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 75% (6 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.469 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.99 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +5.6B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 60% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Copper/Gold -7.3% growth collapse · real yield 2.40% restrictive
Correlations	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	SPY/VIX -0.42 stretched, SPY/DXY -0.29 normal, SPY/TNX -0.34 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.66 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.4 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 143 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.54 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 21 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d -0.2% stable, MOVE 72 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.69% benign, NFCI -0.559 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally — gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (75% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 83/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.469; GEX positive at 5.6B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.4 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $765.89 | 50 SMA $752.26 | 200 SMA $707.99 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $765.38
QQQ: $711.30 | 50 SMA $713.23 | 200 SMA $653.22 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $706.85
IWM: $299.21 | 50 SMA $296.83 | 200 SMA $270.19 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $298.26
VIX: 15.45 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.639%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$765.89	40.50	50.4	$765.38	Neutral	1.00
QQQ	$711.30	36.83	54.4	$706.85	Neutral	0.71
IWM	$299.21	43.35	30.2	$298.26	Neutral	1.37

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.45	46.30	43.5	$11.06	Neutral	1.11
TNX	46.39	58.69	41.9	-	-	-
GLD	$428.07	82.23	31.7	$407.00	Bearish	0.12
DXY	98.91	35.61	38.5	-	-	-
SLV	$62.08	73.72	11.5	$57.66	Bearish	0.29

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.62B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.69% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 1.00%
2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 59.9%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 72.4%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 491
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	84.2%	0/0
Health Care	83.3%	0/0
Communication Services	78.9%	0/0
Consumer Staples	71.9%	0/0
Materials	70.8%	0/0
Financials	66.2%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	60.3%	0/0
Real Estate	50.0%	0/0
Technology	49.2%	0/0
Industrials	41.5%	0/0
Utilities	16.7%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $81.11 (5d: -5.5%)
Brent Crude: $85.86 | Spread: $4.75
RBOB Gasoline: $2.8900/gal
Heating Oil: $4.0600/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.65/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $62.06
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.23

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.424	stretched
SPY / DXY	-0.295	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.337	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.655	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 71.92
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,314,209.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,281,899.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.99 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $505.2B
Gamma Call Wall: $766 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $765.89)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) · below 20d

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -10,560 contracts (Z +1.84, as of 2026-08-18)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -4.4% (as of 2026-08-19)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.64%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.93 (Normal)
DXY: 98.91
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.32% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.32%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
Stagflation Risk Score: 21/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6745.7B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $953.6B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,792B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,912B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,047B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,751B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $79,043 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] Data integrity: hormuz_oil_brent_price has printed the same value (95.29) for 5 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.469, GEX +5.6B, HY OAS 2.69%, breadth 60%.
[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -7.3% — growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
[WARNING] SKEW at 143 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.
[INFO] Screener: MLI — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 69/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=4598)). Worth a look.
[INFO] Screener: FDS — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 66/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=4598)). Worth a look.

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.35%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 23218 | Prev: 23115.2

Earnings:

NVDA: EPS Est. $2.09 (↑0.6% vs 30d)

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
Industrial Production: 2026-09-18

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.9% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑2.3% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.76 (↓4.1% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.2% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓6.8% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (9):

[1] $4700 back on Gold buyers' radar as US core PCE inflation data looms URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/4700-back-on-gold-buyers-radar-as-us-core-pce-inflation-data-looms-202608260332 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 03:32:34 GMT

[2] Gold holds steady around $4,650 as traders look to US PCE for Fed rate cues URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-holds-steady-around-4-650-as-traders-look-to-us-pce-for-fed-rate-cues-202608260332 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 03:32:20 GMT

[3] Top 3 Crypto Price Prediction: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple - BTC pauses near $80,000, ETH at $2,500, XRP below $1.50 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/top-3-crypto-price-prediction-bitcoin-ethereum-ripple-btc-pauses-near-80-000-eth-at-2-500-xrp-below-150-202608260321 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 03:21:04 GMT

[4] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds firmly above $69 ahead of US PCE Inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-holds-firmly-above-69-ahead-of-us-pce-inflation-data-202608260319 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 03:19:54 GMT

[5] New Zealand Dollar declines as US Dollar advances ahead of PCE index data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-declines-as-us-dollar-advances-ahead-of-pce-index-data-202608260313 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 03:13:03 GMT

[6] Silver Elliott Wave perspective: Upside momentum builds in wave five [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/silver-elliott-wave-perspective-upside-momentum-builds-in-wave-five-video-202608260307 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 03:07:31 GMT

[7] Japanese Yen strengthens on US bond buyback, traders brace for US PCE inflation report URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-strengthens-on-us-bond-buyback-traders-brace-for-us-pce-inflation-report-202608260241 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 02:41:32 GMT

[8] Australian Dollar strengthens against Japanese Yen following CPI data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-strengthens-against-japanese-yen-following-cpi-data-202608260214 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 02:14:52 GMT

[9] BoJ to raise rate to 1.25% in September -- Reuters poll URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/boj-to-raise-rate-to-125-in-september-reuters-poll-202608260213 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 02:13:02 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (1):

[1] Oil prices fall as hopes grow for Hormuz reopening Time: 2026-08-26T03:01:00.120Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 179 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily — 1.7% of normal
Throughput: 1.5% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 210
Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 66.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS215 (+330% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $1.9 billion/day economic cost