Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-26 08:01:03 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 75% (6 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.469 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.99 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +5.6B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 60% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Copper/Gold -7.3% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.40% restrictive |
| Correlations | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.20 extreme, SPY/DXY -0.07 normal, SPY/TNX -0.49 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.68 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.4 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.54 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 21 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d -0.2% stable, MOVE 72 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.69% benign, NFCI -0.559 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally β gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (75% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 83/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.469; GEX positive at 5.6B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.4 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $765.89 | 50 SMA $752.26 | 200 SMA $707.99 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $765.38
- QQQ: $711.30 | 50 SMA $713.23 | 200 SMA $653.22 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $706.85
- IWM: $299.21 | 50 SMA $296.83 | 200 SMA $270.19 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $298.26
- VIX: 15.45 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.639%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $765.89 | 40.50 | 50.4 | $765.38 | Neutral | 1.00 |
| QQQ | $711.30 | 36.83 | 54.4 | $706.85 | Neutral | 0.71 |
| IWM | $299.21 | 43.35 | 30.2 | $298.26 | Neutral | 1.37 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.45 | 46.30 | 43.5 | $11.06 | Neutral | 1.11 |
| TNX | 46.39 | 58.69 | 41.9 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $428.07 | 82.23 | 31.7 | $407.00 | Bearish | 0.12 |
| DXY | 98.91 | 35.61 | 38.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $62.08 | 73.72 | 11.5 | $57.66 | Bearish | 0.29 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.62B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.69% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 59.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 72.4%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 491
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 84.2% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 83.3% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 78.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 71.9% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 70.8% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 66.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 60.3% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 49.2% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 41.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 16.7% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $81.11 (5d: -5.5%)
- Brent Crude: $85.86 | Spread: $4.75
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8900/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.0600/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.65/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $62.06
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.23
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.199 | extreme |
| SPY / DXY | -0.069 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.492 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.681 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 71.92
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,314,209.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,281,899.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.99 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $505.2B
- Gamma Call Wall: $770 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $765.89)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -10,560 contracts (Z +1.84, as of 2026-08-18)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -4.4% (as of 2026-08-19)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.64%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.93 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.91
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.32% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.32%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 21/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6745.7B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $953.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,792B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,912B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,047B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,751B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $78,507 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.469, GEX +5.6B, HY OAS 2.69%, breadth 60%.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -7.3% β growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~294h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~54h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.35%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 23218 | Prev: 23115.2
Earnings:
- NVDA: EPS Est. $2.09 (β0.6% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.76 (β4.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β6.8% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (20):
[1] Japanese Yen: Intervention impact assessed - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-intervention-impact-assessed-rabobank-202608261158 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 11:58:59 GMT
[2] Dollar eyes key support as PCE tests the bond rally URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/dollar-eyes-key-support-as-pce-tests-the-bond-rally-202608261157 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 11:57:25 GMT
[3] US Dollar: Softer energy supports carry trades - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-softer-energy-supports-carry-trades-ing-202608261148 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 11:48:30 GMT
[4] Indian Rupee poised for positive opening on Thursday amid lower oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-poised-for-positive-opening-on-thursday-amid-lower-oil-prices-202608261144 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 11:44:11 GMT
[5] Gold eases from $4,700 high ahead of key US PCE inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-eases-from-4-700-high-ahead-of-key-us-pce-inflation-data-202608261142 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 11:42:48 GMT
[6] Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC recovery stalls near $80,000 as ETF inflows mount, whale demand strengthens URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-price-forecast-btc-recovery-stalls-near-80-000-as-etf-inflows-mount-whale-demand-strengthens-202608261140 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 11:40:27 GMT
[7] Euro: ECB tightening outlook offers support against US Dollar - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-ecb-tightening-outlook-offers-support-against-us-dollar-bny-202608261140 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 11:40:17 GMT
[8] Japanese Yen treads water around 159.00 with US PCE Inflation on tap URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-treads-water-around-15900-with-us-pce-inflation-on-tap-202608261139 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 11:39:41 GMT
[9] Australian Dollar: RBA tightening risks rise - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-rba-tightening-risks-rise-td-securities-202608261128 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 11:28:22 GMT
[10] US Dollar Index: Range-bound consolidation as PCE looms - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-range-bound-consolidation-as-pce-looms-bbh-202608261117 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 11:17:21 GMT
[11] EUR/USD outlook: Consolidates above key supports ahead of US inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-usd-outlook-consolidates-above-key-supports-ahead-of-us-inflation-data-202608261109 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 11:09:50 GMT
[12] Gold slips ahead of US PCE as US Dollar firms modestly URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-slips-ahead-of-us-pce-as-us-dollar-firms-modestly-202608261107 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 11:07:10 GMT
[13] United States MBA Mortgage Applications down to -1% in August 21 from previous -0.4% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-mba-mortgage-applications-down-to-1-in-august-21-from-previous-04-202608261100 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 11:00:27 GMT
[14] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Hits fresh intra-week lows after failure at 1.3660 resistance URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-hits-fresh-intra-week-lows-after-failure-at-13660-resistance-202608261059 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 10:59:22 GMT
[15] USD/CAD Price Forecast: Approaches 20-day EMA on the back of US-Canada trade dispute URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-approaches-20-day-ema-on-the-back-of-us-canada-trade-dispute-202608261053 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 10:53:59 GMT
[16] Bitcoin ETFs tear through 2026 outflows in seven-day hot streak URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-etfs-tear-through-2026-outflows-in-seven-day-hot-streak-202608261025 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 10:25:39 GMT
[17] Awaiting Nvidia numbers and Rubin color tonight URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/awaiting-nvidia-numbers-and-rubin-color-tonight-202608261020 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 10:20:52 GMT
[18] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD corrects to near $4,620 in countdown to US PCE Inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-corrects-to-near-4-620-in-countdown-to-us-pce-inflation-data-202608261012 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 10:12:36 GMT
[19] Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP broadly consolidate ahead of the next leg up URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-today-bitcoin-ethereum-xrp-broadly-consolidate-ahead-of-the-next-leg-up-202608261011 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 10:11:35 GMT
[20] Japanese Yen: BoJ hike expectations support JPY against US Dollar - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-boj-hike-expectations-support-jpy-against-us-dollar-mufg-202608261004 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 10:04:56 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (7):
[BREAKING] [1] Iran says Strait of Hormuz will stay closed unless US accepts terms Time: 2026-08-26T11:46:58.412Z
[2] Media is front line in Iran's battle over public perception, IRGC says Time: 2026-08-26T11:27:38.931Z
[3] Ghalibaf hits back at critics of Iran-US negotiations Time: 2026-08-26T11:04:52.760Z
[4] Lebanon's Aoun says negotiations better than war for Lebanon Time: 2026-08-26T10:57:25.814Z
[5] Iran urges Qatar to do more to determine fate of missing Su-24 pilots Time: 2026-08-26T10:27:09.322Z
[6] Family of detained British couple in Iran urges UK action after embassy return Time: 2026-08-26T10:12:12.073Z
[7] Iran favors negotiations but will resist economic pressure, Pezeshkian says Time: 2026-08-26T10:10:19.433Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 179 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 3 of 60 normal daily β 5.0% of normal
- Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 120
- Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 60.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS475 (+850% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost