Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-25 06:01:15 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 33% (3 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE — Strong divergence — structural signals broadly disagree with price

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.446 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.26 put-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	GEX +5.5B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Breadth 61% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	Copper/Gold -9.5% growth collapse · real yield 2.40% restrictive
Correlations	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	SPY/VIX -0.43 stretched, SPY/DXY -0.30 normal, SPY/TNX -0.36 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.70 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.8 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 146 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.59 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Stagflation score 21 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	USD/JPY 5d -0.2% stable, MOVE 74 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	HY OAS 2.70% benign, NFCI -0.559 loose

Divergence read: Strong divergence — gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 9 signals refuse to confirm the decline — reversal risk if structure holds.

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 82/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 82 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.446) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.446; GEX positive at 5.5B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.8 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $764.22 | 50 SMA $751.75 | 200 SMA $707.55 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $763.74
QQQ: $707.40 | 50 SMA $713.44 | 200 SMA $652.78 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $710.71
IWM: $298.31 | 50 SMA $296.68 | 200 SMA $269.91 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $273.52
VIX: 15.85 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.704%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$764.22	57.63	49.7	$763.74	Bearish	1.58
QQQ	$707.40	58.03	54.7	$710.71	Bearish	2.19
IWM	$298.31	55.91	29.1	$273.52	Bearish	2.50

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.85	45.81	41.9	$11.06	Neutral	0.84
TNX	47.04	55.56	40.9	-	-	-
GLD	$427.01	82.04	31.9	$403.95	Bearish	0.08
DXY	98.99	33.97	39.0	-	-	-
SLV	$62.32	77.76	11.2	$57.68	Bearish	0.28

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.446
DIX Signal: Neutral
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.47B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 1.00%
2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 61.0%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 74.5%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.5%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	89.5%	0/0
Health Care	87.0%	0/0
Communication Services	78.9%	0/0
Consumer Staples	75.8%	0/0
Financials	67.6%	0/0
Materials	66.7%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	61.0%	0/0
Real Estate	57.7%	0/0
Technology	49.2%	0/0
Industrials	41.8%	0/0
Utilities	16.7%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $84.98 (5d: +0.1%)
Brent Crude: $91.99 | Spread: $7.01
RBOB Gasoline: $2.9700/gal
Heating Oil: $4.1900/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.84/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $63.11
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.15

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.428	stretched
SPY / DXY	-0.299	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.361	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.704	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.98
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,121,360.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,927,107.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.26 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $538.1B
Gamma Call Wall: $770 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $764.22)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -10,560 contracts (Z +1.84, as of 2026-08-18)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -4.4% (as of 2026-08-19)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.70%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.00 (Normal)
DXY: 98.99
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.32% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.32%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
Stagflation Risk Score: 21/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6745.7B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $953.6B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,792B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,916B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,050B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,757B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $79,173 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -9.5% — growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
[WARNING] SKEW at 146 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~268h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.33%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
Retail Sales: 2026-09-16

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (↑0.6% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.9% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑2.3% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.2% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓6.8% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (23):

[1] Euro advances against Japanese Yen as German business sentiment improves URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-advances-against-japanese-yen-as-german-business-sentiment-improves-202608250954 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 09:54:53 GMT

[2] Hungarian Forint: Holding firm against Euro below key resistance - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/hungarian-forint-holding-firm-against-euro-below-key-resistance-societe-generale-202608250948 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 09:48:07 GMT

[3] GBP/USD holds near highs: Focus turns to key events later this week URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gbp-usd-holds-near-highs-focus-turns-to-key-events-later-this-week-202608250948 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 09:48:04 GMT

[4] Bessent's 'Economic D-Day' was more bark than bite URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/bessents-economic-d-day-was-more-bark-than-bite-202608250944 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 09:44:13 GMT

[5] Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608250931 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 09:31:18 GMT

[6] Canadian Dollar: Tariff risks cloud outlook - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-tariff-risks-cloud-outlook-commerzbank-202608250931 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 09:31:05 GMT

[7] Is confidence returning to the Dollar? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/is-confidence-returning-to-the-dollar-202608250924 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 09:24:53 GMT

[8] Japanese Yen: Range trade within 157.90 and 159.80 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-range-trade-within-15790-and-15980-against-us-dollar-uob-202608250917 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 09:17:05 GMT

[9] Bitcoin renews its bullishness - USD gains some ground in the FX market URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/bitcoin-renews-its-bullishness-202608250905 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 09:05:44 GMT

[10] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD faces rejection near $70.00 as upside momentum fades URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-faces-rejection-near-7000-as-upside-momentum-fades-202608250904 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 09:04:21 GMT

[11] Indian Rupee: Range holds against US Dollar as inflows offset trade drag - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-range-holds-against-us-dollar-as-inflows-offset-trade-drag-dbs-202608250902 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 09:02:47 GMT

[12] Dow Jones futures advance as tech stocks rebound ahead of looming Nvidia earnings URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-advance-as-tech-stocks-rebound-ahead-of-looming-nvidia-earnings-202608250856 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 08:56:46 GMT

[13] German Ifo index is more evidence of the economy's resilience URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/german-ifo-index-is-more-evidence-of-the-economys-resilience-202608250856 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 08:56:12 GMT

[14] Stocks recover, as market prices in hopes of a monster Nvidia earnings report URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/stocks-recover-as-market-prices-in-hopes-of-a-monster-nvidia-earnings-report-202608250853 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 08:53:35 GMT

[15] Australian Dollar: CPI keeps RBA on hold bias - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-cpi-keeps-rba-on-hold-bias-ing-202608250848 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 08:48:22 GMT

[16] Hungarian Forint: MNB tone shift watched - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/hungarian-forint-mnb-tone-shift-watched-commerzbank-202608250838 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 08:38:03 GMT

[17] Euro holds gains against Canadian Dollar on upbeat German IFO data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-holds-gains-against-canadian-dollar-on-upbeat-german-ifo-data-202608250830 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 08:30:12 GMT

[18] British Pound extends gains to fresh monthly peak, around mid-217.00s vs weaker Yen URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-extends-gains-to-fresh-monthly-peak-around-mid-21700s-vs-weaker-yen-202608250829 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 08:29:27 GMT

[19] Gold - Overextended and potential for the downside? [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-overextended-and-potential-for-the-downside-video-202608250829 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 08:29:21 GMT

[20] US Dollar: Policy crosscurrents shape outlook - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-policy-crosscurrents-shape-outlook-ocbc-202608250825 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 08:25:53 GMT

[21] USDX price outlook: US Dollar Index holds above 0.618 support Arc, potential rebound toward 99.22 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/usdx-price-outlook-us-dollar-index-holds-above-0618-support-arc-potential-rebound-toward-9922-202608250823 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 08:23:43 GMT

[22] British Pound: Upside bias toward 1.3700 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-upside-bias-toward-13700-against-us-dollar-uob-202608250810 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 08:10:22 GMT

[23] Germany's IFO Business Climate Index improves again, arriving at 88.8 vs. 87.2 estimates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germanys-ifo-business-climate-index-improves-again-arriving-at-888-vs-872-estimates-202608250802 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 08:02:48 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (6):

[1] US prepares to return diplomats to Middle East embassies - NYT Time: 2026-08-25T09:47:36.488Z

[2] Iran security panel chief criticizes government over absence from Hormuz bill talks Time: 2026-08-25T09:10:51.756Z

[3] Iran's Sharif University expels six students after protests Time: 2026-08-25T09:01:13.708Z

[4] Iran army warns armed groups against approaching borders Time: 2026-08-25T08:57:54.084Z

[5] Some Ghalibaf positions align with pro-Western camp, Kayhan editor says Time: 2026-08-25T08:35:10.194Z

[6] Dollar sets new record against Iran's rial Time: 2026-08-25T08:25:59.902Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 178 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily — 1.7% of normal
Throughput: 1.0% of normal (0.1M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 372
Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 56.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost