Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-25 04:01:09 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 33% (3 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE — Strong divergence — structural signals broadly disagree with price

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.446 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.26 put-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	GEX +5.5B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Breadth 61% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	Copper/Gold -9.5% growth collapse · real yield 2.40% restrictive
Correlations	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	SPY/VIX -0.43 stretched, SPY/DXY -0.30 normal, SPY/TNX -0.36 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.70 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.8 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 146 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.59 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Stagflation score 21 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	USD/JPY 5d -0.2% stable, MOVE 74 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	HY OAS 2.70% benign, NFCI -0.559 loose

Divergence read: Strong divergence — gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 9 signals refuse to confirm the decline — reversal risk if structure holds.

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 82/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 82 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.446) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.446; GEX positive at 5.5B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.8 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $764.22 | 50 SMA $751.75 | 200 SMA $707.55 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $763.74
QQQ: $707.40 | 50 SMA $713.44 | 200 SMA $652.78 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $710.71
IWM: $298.31 | 50 SMA $296.68 | 200 SMA $269.91 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $273.52
VIX: 15.85 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.704%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$764.22	57.63	49.7	$763.74	Bearish	1.58
QQQ	$707.40	58.03	54.7	$710.71	Bearish	2.19
IWM	$298.31	55.91	29.1	$273.52	Bearish	2.50

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.85	45.81	41.9	$11.06	Neutral	0.84
TNX	47.04	55.56	40.9	-	-	-
GLD	$427.01	82.04	31.9	$403.95	Bearish	0.08
DXY	98.99	33.97	39.0	-	-	-
SLV	$62.32	77.76	11.2	$57.68	Bearish	0.28

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.446
DIX Signal: Neutral
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.47B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 1.00%
2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 61.0%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 74.5%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.5%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	89.5%	0/0
Health Care	87.0%	0/0
Communication Services	78.9%	0/0
Consumer Staples	75.8%	0/0
Financials	67.6%	0/0
Materials	66.7%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	61.0%	0/0
Real Estate	57.7%	0/0
Technology	49.2%	0/0
Industrials	41.8%	0/0
Utilities	16.7%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $84.98 (5d: +0.1%)
Brent Crude: $91.99 | Spread: $7.01
RBOB Gasoline: $2.9700/gal
Heating Oil: $4.1900/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.84/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $63.11
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.15

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.428	stretched
SPY / DXY	-0.299	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.361	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.704	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.98
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,121,360.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,927,107.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.26 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $538.1B
Gamma Call Wall: $770 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $764.22)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -10,560 contracts (Z +1.84, as of 2026-08-18)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -4.4% (as of 2026-08-19)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.70%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.00 (Normal)
DXY: 98.99
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.32% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.32%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
Stagflation Risk Score: 21/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6745.7B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $953.6B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,792B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,916B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,050B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,757B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $79,754 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -9.5% — growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
[WARNING] SKEW at 146 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~268h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.33%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
Retail Sales: 2026-09-16

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (↑0.6% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.9% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑2.3% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.2% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓6.8% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (28):

[1] Germany IFO - Expectations above forecasts (87.5) in August: Actual (89.1) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-ifo-expectations-above-forecasts-875-in-august-actual-891-202608250800 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 08:00:29 GMT

[2] Germany IFO - Current Assessment above expectations (87) in August: Actual (88.5) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-ifo-current-assessment-above-expectations-87-in-august-actual-885-202608250800 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 08:00:20 GMT

[3] Germany IFO - Business Climate above forecasts (87.2) in August: Actual (88.8) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-ifo-business-climate-above-forecasts-872-in-august-actual-888-202608250800 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 08:00:08 GMT

[4] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Rally pauses below 1.3700 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-rally-pauses-below-13700-202608250757 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 07:57:55 GMT

[5] Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC rally above $80,000 shows signs of overheating URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-price-forecast-btc-rally-above-80-000-shows-signs-of-overheating-202608250756 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 07:56:50 GMT

[6] Gold: Path depends on yield regime shift - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-path-depends-on-yield-regime-shift-mufg-202608250748 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 07:48:49 GMT

[7] USD/CAD Price Forecast: Could surpass 1.3900 as break above 38.2% Fibo. comes into play URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-could-surpass-13900-as-break-above-382-fibo-comes-into-play-202608250748 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 07:48:11 GMT

[8] New Zealand Dollar falls as US Dollar gains on safe-haven demand URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-falls-as-us-dollar-gains-on-safe-haven-demand-202608250748 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 07:48:10 GMT

[9] This was the most obviously buy signal of the year [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/this-was-the-most-obviously-buy-signal-of-the-year-video-202608250747 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 07:47:12 GMT

[10] SHEIN IPO: From $100 billion to $27 billion -- What investors need to know URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/shein-ipo-from-100-billion-to-27-billion-what-investors-need-to-know-202608250742 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 07:42:30 GMT

[11] Why Platinum could become the 'value metal' of the next commodity cycle URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/why-platinum-could-become-the-value-metal-of-the-next-commodity-cycle-202608250738 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 07:38:42 GMT

[12] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD slips below $68.50 despite revived debasement trading URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-slips-below-6850-despite-revived-debasement-trading-202608250732 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 07:32:54 GMT

[13] China says its cooperation with Iran should not be disrupted - Reuters URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-says-its-cooperation-with-iran-should-not-be-disrupted-reuters-202608250732 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 07:32:41 GMT

[14] Pi Network Price Forecast: PI lacks rebound momentum despite market-wide recovery URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/pi-network-price-forecast-pi-lacks-rebound-momentum-despite-market-wide-recovery-202608250730 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 07:30:01 GMT

[15] Copper: Tight inventories sustain price support - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/copper-tight-inventories-sustain-price-support-ing-202608250725 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 07:25:43 GMT

[16] Forex Today: US Dollar recovers modestly as markets assess developments in Mideast URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-us-dollar-recovers-modestly-as-markets-assess-developments-in-mideast-202608250723 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 07:23:29 GMT

[17] The commodities feed: Oil shrugs off Bessent's 'D-day' plan for Iran URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-commodities-feed-oil-shrugs-off-bessents-d-day-plan-for-iran-202608250716 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 07:16:49 GMT

[18] Euro remains depressed against British Pound despite upbeat German GDP figures URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-remains-depressed-against-british-pound-despite-upbeat-german-gdp-figures-202608250711 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 07:11:15 GMT

[19] Swiss Franc: Export strains with strong CHF - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-export-strains-with-strong-chf-commerzbank-202608250710 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 07:10:07 GMT

[20] XRP/USD support at 1.2000-1.3000 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/xrp-usd-support-at-12000-13000-202608250707 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 07:07:02 GMT

[21] Bessent's Iran offensive, Gold's three-month high and Aussie CPI ahead URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/bessents-iran-offensive-golds-three-month-high-and-aussie-cpi-ahead-202608250703 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 07:03:06 GMT

[22] HFM and Arsenal kick off a new season together URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/hfm-and-arsenal-kick-off-a-new-season-together-202608250653 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 06:53:55 GMT

[23] WTI slides below $84.00 on firmer USD but US-Iran tensions limit deeper losses URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-slides-below-8400-on-firmer-usd-but-us-iran-tensions-limit-deeper-losses-202608250647 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 06:47:29 GMT

[24] France Consumer Confidence registered at 86, below expectations (87) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-consumer-confidence-registered-at-86-below-expectations-87-in-august-202608250645 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 06:45:00 GMT

[25] Australian Dollar edges up as RBA keeps rate hike option quite possible URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-edges-up-as-rba-keeps-rate-hike-option-quite-possible-202608250644 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 06:44:36 GMT

[26] Equities: Semiconductor selloff pressures Wall Street - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-semiconductor-selloff-pressures-wall-street-deutsche-bank-202608250638 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 06:38:56 GMT

[27] Bessent stopped short of announcing secondary sanctions on Iran's trading partners and financial institutions URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/bessent-stopped-short-of-announcing-secondary-sanctions-on-irans-trading-partners-and-financial-institutions-202608250632 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 06:32:32 GMT

[28] USD/JPY Price Forecast: US Dollar keeps crawling towards the key 160.00 area URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-us-dollar-keeps-crawling-towards-the-key-16000-area-202608250631 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 06:31:14 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (5):

[1] Iran must work with Persian Gulf states to end war, UAE official says Time: 2026-08-25T07:54:34.255Z

[2] Iran-bound flight declares emergency over Turkey Time: 2026-08-25T07:49:40.646Z

[3] US suspends authorization for personal remittances to and from Iran Time: 2026-08-25T07:26:50.837Z

[4] Video: Gas station closes, drivers still queue for fuel in Karaj Time: 2026-08-25T07:23:01.581Z

[5] US suspends licenses for sports and academic exchanges with Iran Time: 2026-08-25T05:53:59.183Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 178 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily — 1.7% of normal
Throughput: 1.5% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 250
Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 66.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS180 (+260% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost