Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-25 02:01:41 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 33% (3 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE — Strong divergence — structural signals broadly disagree with price

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.446 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.26 put-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	GEX +5.5B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Breadth 61% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	Copper/Gold -9.5% growth collapse · real yield 2.40% restrictive
Correlations	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	SPY/VIX -0.43 stretched, SPY/DXY -0.30 normal, SPY/TNX -0.36 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.70 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.8 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 146 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.59 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Stagflation score 21 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	USD/JPY 5d -0.2% stable, MOVE 74 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	HY OAS 2.70% benign, NFCI -0.559 loose

Divergence read: Strong divergence — gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 9 signals refuse to confirm the decline — reversal risk if structure holds.

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 84/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 84 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.446) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.446; GEX positive at 5.5B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.8 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $764.22 | 50 SMA $751.75 | 200 SMA $707.55 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $763.74
QQQ: $707.40 | 50 SMA $713.44 | 200 SMA $652.78 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $710.71
IWM: $298.31 | 50 SMA $296.68 | 200 SMA $269.91 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $273.52
VIX: 15.85 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.704%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$764.22	57.63	49.7	$763.74	Bearish	1.58
QQQ	$707.40	58.03	54.7	$710.71	Bearish	2.19
IWM	$298.31	55.91	29.1	$273.52	Bearish	2.50

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.85	45.81	41.9	$11.06	Neutral	0.84
TNX	47.04	55.56	40.9	-	-	-
GLD	$427.01	82.04	31.9	$403.95	Bearish	0.08
DXY	98.99	33.97	39.0	-	-	-
SLV	$62.32	77.76	11.2	$57.68	Bearish	0.28

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.446
DIX Signal: Neutral
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.47B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 1.00%
2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 61.0%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 74.5%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.5%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	89.5%	0/0
Health Care	87.0%	0/0
Communication Services	78.9%	0/0
Consumer Staples	75.8%	0/0
Financials	67.6%	0/0
Materials	66.7%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	61.0%	0/0
Real Estate	57.7%	0/0
Technology	49.2%	0/0
Industrials	41.8%	0/0
Utilities	16.7%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $84.98 (5d: +0.1%)
Brent Crude: $91.99 | Spread: $7.01
RBOB Gasoline: $2.9700/gal
Heating Oil: $4.1900/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.84/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $63.11
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.15

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.428	stretched
SPY / DXY	-0.299	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.361	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.704	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.98
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,121,360.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,927,107.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.26 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $538.1B
Gamma Call Wall: $764 | Put Wall: $763 (Spot: $764.22)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -10,560 contracts (Z +1.84, as of 2026-08-18)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -4.4% (as of 2026-08-19)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.70%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.00 (Normal)
DXY: 98.99
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.32% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.32%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
Stagflation Risk Score: 21/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6745.7B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $953.6B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,792B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,916B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,050B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,757B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $80,675 (Risk-on)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -9.5% — growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
[WARNING] SKEW at 146 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~268h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.33%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
Retail Sales: 2026-09-16

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (↑0.6% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.9% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑2.3% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.2% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓6.8% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (21):

[1] Denmark Retail Sales (YoY): 6.7% (July) vs 4.8% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/denmark-retail-sales-yoy-67-july-vs-48-202608250600 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 06:00:06 GMT

[2] EUR/USD Price Forecast: Corrects further as US Dollar extends recovery URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-corrects-further-as-us-dollar-extends-recovery-202608250558 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 05:58:30 GMT

[3] Riksbank minutes to shed light on board divisions URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/riksbank-minutes-to-shed-light-on-board-divisions-202608250557 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 05:57:37 GMT

[4] Dogecoin Price Forecast: Nears pivotal resistance as ETF inflows contrast with cautious on-chain signals URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/dogecoin-price-forecast-nears-pivotal-resistance-as-etf-inflows-contrast-with-cautious-on-chain-signals-202608250552 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 05:52:56 GMT

[5] Iran and Fed outlook remain uncertain after Bessent's comments and ahead of Jackson Hole URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/iran-and-fed-outlook-remain-uncertain-after-bessents-comments-and-ahead-of-jackson-hole-202608250546 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 05:46:02 GMT

[6] Bitcoin momentum strengthens near $80K amid strong short-term demand -- Glassnode URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-momentum-strengthens-near-80k-amid-strong-short-term-demand-glassnode-202608250541 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 05:41:15 GMT

[7] Indian Rupee ticks up against US Dollar on RBI's likely intervention URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-ticks-up-against-us-dollar-on-rbis-likely-intervention-202608250537 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 05:37:39 GMT

[8] Indonesian Rupiah struggles amid record deficit, external pressures URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesian-rupiah-struggles-amid-record-deficit-external-pressures-202608250527 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 05:27:23 GMT

[9] Saudi Arabia Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/saudi-arabia-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608250506 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 05:06:07 GMT

[10] Japan Coincident Index: 118.5 (June) vs 118.2 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-coincident-index-1185-june-vs-1182-202608250504 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 05:04:10 GMT

[11] Japan Leading Economic Index registered at 116.5 above expectations (116.4) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-leading-economic-index-registered-at-1165-above-expectations-1164-in-june-202608250503 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 05:03:54 GMT

[12] Philippines Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/philippines-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608250500 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 05:00:50 GMT

[13] United Arab Emirates Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-arab-emirates-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608250455 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 04:55:30 GMT

[14] Pakistan Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pakistan-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608250445 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 04:45:28 GMT

[15] India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608250435 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 04:35:04 GMT

[16] Malaysia Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/malaysia-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608250430 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 04:30:28 GMT

[17] EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Rises toward 186.00 after rebounding from ascending channel bottom URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-price-forecast-rises-toward-18600-after-rebounding-from-ascending-channel-bottom-202608250418 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 04:18:41 GMT

[18] Canadian Dollar remains depressed as firmer USD and trade war counter higher oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-remains-depressed-as-firmer-usd-and-trade-war-counter-higher-oil-prices-202608250412 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 04:12:38 GMT

[19] Morning briefing: EUR/USD is expected to regain momentum above 1.1700 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/morning-briefing-eur-usd-is-expected-to-regain-momentum-above-11700-202608250412 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 04:12:05 GMT

[20] RBA's Jacobs: Transition from RBA controlling reserves quantity to banking system managing it URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/rbas-jacobs-transition-from-rba-controlling-reserves-quantity-to-banking-system-managing-it-202608250411 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 04:11:36 GMT

[21] Crypto Overview: Bitcoin tops $80,000 as US Treasury fights high yields - AERO, VIRTUAL rally URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-overview-bitcoin-tops-80-000-as-us-treasury-fights-high-yields-aero-virtual-rally-202608250410 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 04:10:54 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (3):

[1] US warns ships against sharing information with Iran's Hormuz bodies Time: 2026-08-25T05:35:59.764Z

[2] War did not cause Iran's triple-digit inflation, hardline newspaper says Time: 2026-08-25T04:56:36.670Z

[3] Pakistan says progress made toward restoring US-Iran MoU Time: 2026-08-25T04:07:50.961Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 178 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily — 1.7% of normal
Throughput: 1.7% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 350
Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 40.0x normal
Tanker Rates: WS375 (+650% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost