Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-25 00:01:28 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE — Strong divergence — structural signals broadly disagree with price

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.446 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.26 put-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	GEX +5.5B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Breadth 61% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	Copper/Gold -9.5% growth collapse · real yield 2.40% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.56 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.11 normal, SPY/TNX -0.36 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.77 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.8 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 146 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.59 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Stagflation score 21 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	USD/JPY 5d -0.2% stable, MOVE 74 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	HY OAS 2.70% benign, NFCI -0.559 loose

Divergence read: Strong divergence — gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline — reversal risk if structure holds.

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 84/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 84 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.446) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.446; GEX positive at 5.5B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.8 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $764.22 | 50 SMA $751.75 | 200 SMA $707.55 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $763.74
QQQ: $707.40 | 50 SMA $713.44 | 200 SMA $652.78 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $710.71
IWM: $298.31 | 50 SMA $296.68 | 200 SMA $269.91 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $273.52
VIX: 15.85 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.704%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$764.22	57.63	49.7	$763.74	Bearish	1.58
QQQ	$707.40	58.03	54.7	$710.71	Bearish	2.19
IWM	$298.31	55.91	29.1	$273.52	Bearish	2.50

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.85	45.81	41.9	$11.06	Neutral	0.84
TNX	47.04	55.56	40.9	-	-	-
GLD	$427.01	82.04	31.9	$403.95	Bearish	0.08
DXY	98.99	33.97	39.0	-	-	-
SLV	$62.32	77.76	11.2	$57.68	Bearish	0.28

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.446
DIX Signal: Neutral
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.47B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 1.00%
2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 61.0%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 74.5%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.5%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	89.5%	0/0
Health Care	87.0%	0/0
Communication Services	78.9%	0/0
Consumer Staples	75.8%	0/0
Financials	67.6%	0/0
Materials	66.7%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	61.0%	0/0
Real Estate	57.7%	0/0
Technology	49.2%	0/0
Industrials	41.8%	0/0
Utilities	16.7%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $84.98 (5d: +0.1%)
Brent Crude: $91.99 | Spread: $7.01
RBOB Gasoline: $2.9700/gal
Heating Oil: $4.1900/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.84/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $63.11
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.15

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.557	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.112	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.356	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.773	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.98
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,121,360.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,927,107.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.26 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $538.1B
Gamma Call Wall: $764 | Put Wall: $763 (Spot: $764.22)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -10,560 contracts (Z +1.84, as of 2026-08-18)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -4.4% (as of 2026-08-19)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.70%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.00 (Normal)
DXY: 98.99
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.32% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.32%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
Stagflation Risk Score: 21/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6745.7B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $953.6B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,792B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,916B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,050B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,757B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $80,478 (Risk-on)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~268h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: naaim_exposure has printed the same value (79.7) for 19 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is weekly (~5 trading day(s); freeze bar 10). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 30 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: acm_term_premium_10y has printed the same value (0.84) for 6 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 93 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_max_pain has printed the same value (735.0) for 39 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.33%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
Retail Sales: 2026-09-16

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (↑0.6% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.9% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑2.3% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.2% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓6.8% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (10):

[1] United States Dollar Index holds gains near 99.00 amid escalating geopolitical risks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-holds-gains-near-9900-amid-escalating-geopolitical-risks-202608250345 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 03:45:37 GMT

[2] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD corrects below $68 in countdown to US PCE Inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-corrects-below-68-in-countdown-to-us-pce-inflation-data-202608250344 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 03:44:16 GMT

[3] British Pound holds range below mid-1.3600s as USD firms amid Fed risks and Iran tensions URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-holds-range-below-mid-13600s-as-usd-firms-amid-fed-risks-and-iran-tensions-202608250333 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 03:33:43 GMT

[4] Ripple and Stellar outlook: Key breakouts could fuel the next rally URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ripple-and-stellar-outlook-key-breakouts-could-fuel-the-next-rally-202608250333 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 03:33:38 GMT

[5] Elliott Wave forecast: Crude Oil aims higher, $100.6 in sight [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/elliott-wave-forecast-crude-oil-aims-higher-1006-in-sight-video-202608250330 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 03:30:27 GMT

[6] $4700 tested as Gold pulls back but bullish potential remains intact URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/4700-tested-as-gold-pulls-back-but-bullish-potential-remains-intact-202608250311 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 03:11:11 GMT

[7] New Zealand Dollar gains as high inflation fuels odds of RBNZ September rate hikes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-gains-as-high-inflation-fuels-odds-of-rbnz-september-rate-hikes-202608250300 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 03:00:34 GMT

[8] Gold retreats from mid-May highs; fails ahead of $4,700 as Fed risks support USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-retreats-from-mid-may-highs-fails-ahead-of-4-700-as-fed-risks-support-usd-202608250254 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 02:54:12 GMT

[9] Japan's Katayama: Will focus on key policies in FY27 budget to drive economic growth URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japans-katayama-will-focus-on-key-policies-in-fy27-budget-to-drive-economic-growth-202608250241 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 02:41:27 GMT

[10] Australian Dollar remains steady following RBA Meeting Minutes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-remains-steady-following-rba-meeting-minutes-202608250205 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 02:05:19 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (4):

[1] US senators seek hearing on troop strain from Iran war Time: 2026-08-25T03:32:09.708Z

[2] US senator calls Iran sanctions 'desperate window dressing' Time: 2026-08-25T03:03:49.455Z

[3] Commodity vessel traffic through Strait of Hormuz falls to three-month low Time: 2026-08-25T02:54:15.704Z

[4] Oil prices fall after US Iran sanctions threat stops short of penalties Time: 2026-08-25T02:29:30.853Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 178 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily — 10.0% of normal
Throughput: 14.6% of normal (1.5M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 250
Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 66.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS220 (+340% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost