Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-24 22:01:33 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 75% (6 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	DIX 0.446 below 0.45 and falling — institutional buying drying up, 0DTE PCR 1.26 put-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +5.5B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 61% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Copper/Gold -9.5% growth collapse · real yield 2.40% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.56 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.11 normal, SPY/TNX -0.36 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.77 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.8 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 146 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.59 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 21 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d -0.2% stable, MOVE 74 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.70% benign, NFCI -0.559 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally — gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (75% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 83/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 83 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.446) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.

Leading indicators show DIX falling to 0.446 (institutional buying fading); GEX positive at 5.5B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads tightening (risk appetite improving). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.8 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $764.22 | 50 SMA $751.75 | 200 SMA $707.55 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $763.74
QQQ: $707.40 | 50 SMA $713.44 | 200 SMA $652.78 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $710.71
IWM: $298.31 | 50 SMA $296.68 | 200 SMA $269.91 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $273.52
VIX: 15.85 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.704%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$764.22	57.63	49.7	$763.74	Bearish	1.58
QQQ	$707.40	58.03	54.7	$710.71	Bearish	2.19
IWM	$298.31	55.91	29.1	$273.52	Bearish	2.50

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.85	45.81	41.9	$11.06	Neutral	0.84
TNX	47.04	55.56	40.9	-	-	-
GLD	$427.01	82.04	31.9	$403.95	Bearish	0.08
DXY	98.99	33.97	39.0	-	-	-
SLV	$62.32	77.76	11.2	$57.68	Bearish	0.28

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.446
DIX Signal: Neutral
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.47B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 1.00%
2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 61.0%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 74.5%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.5%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	89.5%	0/0
Health Care	87.0%	0/0
Communication Services	78.9%	0/0
Consumer Staples	75.8%	0/0
Financials	67.6%	0/0
Materials	66.7%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	61.0%	0/0
Real Estate	57.7%	0/0
Technology	49.2%	0/0
Industrials	41.8%	0/0
Utilities	16.7%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $84.98 (5d: +0.1%)
Brent Crude: $91.99 | Spread: $7.01
RBOB Gasoline: $2.9700/gal
Heating Oil: $4.1900/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.84/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $63.11
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.15

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.557	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.112	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.356	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.773	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.98
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,121,360.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,927,107.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.26 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $538.1B
Gamma Call Wall: $764 | Put Wall: $763 (Spot: $764.22)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -10,560 contracts (Z +1.84, as of 2026-08-18)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -4.4% (as of 2026-08-19)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.70%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.00 (Normal)
DXY: 98.99
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.32% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.32%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
Stagflation Risk Score: 21/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6745.7B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $953.6B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,792B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,916B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,050B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,757B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $79,832 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -9.5% — growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
[WARNING] SKEW at 146 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.446 — institutional buying support fading.
[WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
[WARNING] Data integrity: volatility_regime is STALE (~1h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[INFO] Screener: SPXC — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 66/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=4530)). Worth a look.
[INFO] Screener: WCC — promotion-ready (7d on list, HIGH conviction 64/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=4530)).

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.33%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
Retail Sales: 2026-09-16

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (↑0.6% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.9% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑2.3% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.2% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓6.8% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (30):

[1] WTI holds ground above $84.50 as escalating concerns over US sanctions on Iran URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-holds-ground-above-8450-as-escalating-concerns-over-us-sanctions-on-iran-202608250135 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 01:35:23 GMT

[2] RBA Minutes: Board ready to raise rates if upside risks materialise URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/rba-minutes-board-ready-to-raise-rates-if-upside-risks-materialise-202608250132 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 01:32:40 GMT

[3] Iran's Economy Minister Madanizadeh: Enemies should wait for an attack URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/irans-economy-minister-madanizadeh-enemies-should-wait-for-an-attack-202608250128 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 01:28:09 GMT

[4] Japanese Yen consolidates around 159.00 vs USD as bearish potential remains intact URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-consolidates-around-15900-vs-usd-as-bearish-potential-remains-intact-202608250116 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 01:16:36 GMT

[5] PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7852 vs. 6.7841 previous URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-at-67852-vs-67841-previous-202608250115 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 01:15:52 GMT

[6] Euro gains support amid hawkish ECB expectations, subdued US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-gains-support-amid-hawkish-ecb-expectations-subdued-us-dollar-202608250108 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 01:08:50 GMT

[7] Ethereum Price Forecast: BitMine scoops 32K ETH, hints at further gains URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-price-forecast-bitmine-scoops-32k-eth-hints-at-further-gains-202608242315 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 23:15:52 GMT

[8] Australian Dollar falls as Iran sanctions sour risk appetite, RBA minutes eyed URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-falls-as-iran-sanctions-sour-risk-appetite-rba-minutes-eyed-202608242258 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 22:58:23 GMT

[9] Chinese Yuan: Targeting 6.7200 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/chinese-yuan-targeting-67200-against-us-dollar-uob-202608242233 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 22:33:00 GMT

[10] EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Bulls struggle at 187 amid intervention fears URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-price-forecast-bulls-struggle-at-187-amid-intervention-fears-202608242229 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 22:29:18 GMT

[11] Will Jackson Hole ignite Gold and Silver's next explosive breakout? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/will-jackson-hole-ignite-gold-and-silvers-next-explosive-breakout-202608242223 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 22:23:45 GMT

[12] Hong Kong Gold futures contract reports physical delivery record as the city's role as a Gold hub grows URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/hong-kong-gold-futures-contract-reports-physical-delivery-record-as-the-citys-role-as-a-gold-hub-grows-202608242222 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 22:22:42 GMT

[13] David Morgan: Gold is winning the battle for monetary trust URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/david-morgan-gold-is-winning-the-battle-for-monetary-trust-202608242221 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 22:21:35 GMT

[14] $50,000 Gold? Billionaire investor Thomas Kaplan thinks so URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/50-000-gold-billionaire-investor-thomas-kaplan-thinks-so-202608242219 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 22:19:17 GMT

[15] GBP/JPY Price Forecast: 217.00 caps bulls as RSI stalls URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-jpy-price-forecast-21700-caps-bulls-as-rsi-stalls-202608242207 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 22:07:52 GMT

[16] South Korean Won: Rally faces consolidation risk on policy week - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korean-won-rally-faces-consolidation-risk-on-policy-week-ocbc-202608242151 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 21:51:00 GMT

[17] Record intervention bought the Japanese Yen three weeks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/record-intervention-bought-the-japanese-yen-three-weeks-202608242148 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 21:48:52 GMT

[18] EUR/USD Price Forecast: 1.1700 caps bulls as RSI overheats URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-11700-caps-bulls-as-rsi-overheats-202608242146 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 21:46:34 GMT

[19] New Zealand Dollar muted near multi-month highs as it outweighs soft retail sales URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-muted-near-multi-month-highs-as-it-outweighs-soft-retail-sales-202608242141 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 21:41:04 GMT

[20] British Pound Sterling climbs on a problem it has worse URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-sterling-climbs-on-a-problem-it-has-worse-202608242124 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 21:24:57 GMT

[21] Japanese Yen lower as US Dollar firms on heavier Iran sanctions URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-lower-as-us-dollar-firms-on-heavier-iran-sanctions-202608242115 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 21:15:33 GMT

[22] Singapore: National Day Rally focus - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-national-day-rally-focus-dbs-202608242114 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 21:14:00 GMT

[23] South Korea Consumer Sentiment Index: 104.5 (August) vs previous 106.8 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korea-consumer-sentiment-index-1045-august-vs-previous-1068-202608242100 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 21:00:01 GMT

[24] Asia FX: Mixed central bank paths shape THB, KRW, PHP - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/asia-fx-mixed-central-bank-paths-shape-thb-krw-php-bbh-202608242033 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 20:33:00 GMT

[25] Mexican Peso weakens as Iran sanctions offset Mexico's inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexican-peso-weakens-as-iran-sanctions-offset-mexicos-inflation-data-202608242013 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 20:13:47 GMT

[26] Forex Today: US Dollar firms on safe-haven demand ahead of data-heavy Tuesday URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-us-dollar-firms-on-safe-haven-demand-ahead-of-data-heavy-tuesday-202608242013 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 20:13:42 GMT

[27] South Korean Won: Consolidation zone eyed against US Dollar - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korean-won-consolidation-zone-eyed-against-us-dollar-commerzbank-202608241951 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 19:51:00 GMT

[28] Strategy raises $2B, pauses Bitcoin purchases URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/strategy-raises-2b-pauses-bitcoin-purchases-202608241944 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 19:44:30 GMT

[29] US Dollar Index: Cautious rebound capped near 100 - Scotiabank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-cautious-rebound-capped-near-100-scotiabank-202608241936 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 19:36:02 GMT

[30] Chinese Yuan: Gradual appreciation bias with key levels against US Dollar - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/chinese-yuan-gradual-appreciation-bias-with-key-levels-against-us-dollar-ocbc-202608241917 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 19:17:00 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (7):

[1] Who speaks for Iran? Rezaei's threats fuels divide over war and diplomacy Time: 2026-08-25T01:51:25.402Z

[2] Pakistan says Iran welcomed its mediation efforts with US Time: 2026-08-25T01:37:31.019Z

[3] Iran war pushes insurers to treat Saudi-linked ships as higher risk - FT Time: 2026-08-25T00:41:53.222Z

[4] Houthi deputy foreign minister warns region against joining US sanctions on Iran Time: 2026-08-25T00:23:13.933Z

[5] UN offers to facilitate fertiliser transit through Strait of Hormuz Time: 2026-08-25T00:10:06.797Z

[6] Iran shrugs off US economic war as analysts sound alarm Time: 2026-08-25T00:00:10.521Z

[7] Iran opens new case against actress who defied mandatory hijab Time: 2026-08-24T23:31:24.829Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 177 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily — 5.0% of normal
Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 120
Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 66.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS185 (+270% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost