Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-25 08:01:22 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 33% (3 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE — Strong divergence — structural signals broadly disagree with price

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.446 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.26 put-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	GEX +5.5B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Breadth 61% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	Copper/Gold -9.5% growth collapse · real yield 2.40% restrictive
Correlations	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	SPY/VIX -0.43 stretched, SPY/DXY -0.30 normal, SPY/TNX -0.36 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.70 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.8 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 146 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.59 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Stagflation score 21 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	USD/JPY 5d -0.2% stable, MOVE 74 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	HY OAS 2.70% benign, NFCI -0.559 loose

Divergence read: Strong divergence — gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 9 signals refuse to confirm the decline — reversal risk if structure holds.

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 82/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 82 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.446) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.446; GEX positive at 5.5B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.8 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $764.22 | 50 SMA $751.75 | 200 SMA $707.55 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $763.74
QQQ: $707.40 | 50 SMA $713.44 | 200 SMA $652.78 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $710.71
IWM: $298.31 | 50 SMA $296.68 | 200 SMA $269.91 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $273.52
VIX: 15.85 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.704%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$764.22	57.63	49.7	$763.74	Bearish	1.58
QQQ	$707.40	58.03	54.7	$710.71	Bearish	2.19
IWM	$298.31	55.91	29.1	$273.52	Bearish	2.50

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.85	45.81	41.9	$11.06	Neutral	0.84
TNX	47.04	55.56	40.9	-	-	-
GLD	$427.01	82.04	31.9	$403.95	Bearish	0.08
DXY	98.99	33.97	39.0	-	-	-
SLV	$62.32	77.76	11.2	$57.68	Bearish	0.28

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.446
DIX Signal: Neutral
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.47B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 1.00%
2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 61.0%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 74.5%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.5%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	89.5%	0/0
Health Care	87.0%	0/0
Communication Services	78.9%	0/0
Consumer Staples	75.8%	0/0
Financials	67.6%	0/0
Materials	66.7%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	61.0%	0/0
Real Estate	57.7%	0/0
Technology	49.2%	0/0
Industrials	41.8%	0/0
Utilities	16.7%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $84.98 (5d: +0.1%)
Brent Crude: $91.99 | Spread: $7.01
RBOB Gasoline: $2.9700/gal
Heating Oil: $4.1900/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.84/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $63.11
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.15

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.428	stretched
SPY / DXY	-0.299	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.361	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.704	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.98
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,121,360.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,927,107.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.26 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $538.1B
Gamma Call Wall: $768 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $764.22)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -10,560 contracts (Z +1.84, as of 2026-08-18)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -4.4% (as of 2026-08-19)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.70%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.00 (Normal)
DXY: 98.99
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.32% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.32%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
Stagflation Risk Score: 21/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6745.7B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $953.6B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,792B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,916B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,050B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,757B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $79,137 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -9.5% — growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
[WARNING] SKEW at 146 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~268h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.33%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
Retail Sales: 2026-09-16

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (↑0.6% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.9% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑2.3% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.2% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓6.8% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (27):

[1] Ripple Price Forecast: XRP bulls eye another breakout with $1.70 in sight URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ripple-price-forecast-xrp-bulls-eye-another-breakout-with-170-in-sight-202608251200 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 12:00:00 GMT

[2] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD flatlines around 1.3630 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-flatlines-around-13630-202608251158 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 11:58:00 GMT

[3] GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Bulls recover lost ground as intervention effect wears off URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-jpy-price-forecast-bulls-recover-lost-ground-as-intervention-effect-wears-off-202608251157 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 11:57:00 GMT

[4] Canadian Dollar: Trade conflict keeps downside risks alive against US Dollar - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-trade-conflict-keeps-downside-risks-alive-against-us-dollar-ing-202608251154 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 11:54:47 GMT

[5] Introducing Finctra: A brokerage operations intelligence partner URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/introducing-finctra-a-brokerage-operations-intelligence-partner-202608251151 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 11:51:35 GMT

[6] Japanese Yen under pressure as geopolitical risks support the US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-under-pressure-as-geopolitical-risks-support-the-us-dollar-202608251150 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 11:50:58 GMT

[7] Solana ETFs extend growth streak to five days after year's biggest inflows URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/solana-etfs-extend-growth-streak-to-five-days-after-years-biggest-inflows-202608251149 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 11:49:11 GMT

[8] Oil: Chinese demand peak shifts market balance - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-chinese-demand-peak-shifts-market-balance-commerzbank-202608251145 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 11:45:47 GMT

[9] Markets cautious ahead of NVDA earnings as AI server costs surge and Iran sanctions escalate URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/markets-cautious-ahead-of-nvda-earnings-as-ai-server-costs-surge-and-iran-sanctions-escalate-202608251139 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 11:39:38 GMT

[10] WTI plummets to near $82 as US economic pressure on Iran seems less risky URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-plummets-to-near-82-as-us-economic-pressure-on-iran-seems-less-risky-202608251136 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 11:36:00 GMT

[11] British Pound hovers near six-month highs with investors awaiting key US events URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-hovers-near-six-month-highs-with-investors-awaiting-key-us-events-202608251135 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 11:35:13 GMT

[12] Australian Dollar: Strength intact with 0.7200 in focus against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-strength-intact-with-07200-in-focus-against-us-dollar-uob-202608251127 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 11:27:21 GMT

[13] Euro: Recovery against US Dollar supported by data - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-recovery-against-us-dollar-supported-by-data-bbh-202608251117 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 11:17:52 GMT

[14] Polygon Price Forecast: POL extends rally as bull market discovers steady network growth URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/polygon-price-forecast-pol-extends-rally-as-bull-market-discovers-steady-network-growth-202608251113 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 11:13:43 GMT

[15] Gold pauses near three-month high after sharp rally URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-pauses-near-three-month-high-after-sharp-rally-202608251109 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 11:09:01 GMT

[16] US Dollar: Debasement fears meet historical skepticism - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-debasement-fears-meet-historical-skepticism-mufg-202608251108 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 11:08:27 GMT

[17] Crypto news: Is a bull market coming? XRP price surges, next target $3 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/crypto-news-is-a-bull-market-coming-xrp-price-surges-next-target-3-202608251055 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 10:55:52 GMT

[18] Again one day up, next day not URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/again-one-day-up-next-day-not-202608251048 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 10:48:02 GMT

[19] Bitcoin surges above $80,000: Why the rally is gaining momentum URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-surges-above-80-000-why-the-rally-is-gaining-momentum-202608251037 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 10:37:33 GMT

[20] Euro stands above 1.1650, supported by upbeat German macroeconomic data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-stands-above-11650-supported-by-upbeat-german-macroeconomic-data-202608251035 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 10:35:00 GMT

[21] A change of plans URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/a-change-of-plans-202608251034 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 10:34:28 GMT

[22] Can Gold extend its rally? PCE inflation and Fed signals in focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/can-gold-extend-its-rally-pce-inflation-and-fed-signals-in-focus-202608251031 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 10:31:22 GMT

[23] Forex trading USD/CAD on trade talks, AUD inflation in focus - NVIDIA earnings next [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/forex-trading-usd-cad-on-trade-talks-aud-inflation-in-focus-nvidia-earnings-next-video-202608251024 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 10:24:33 GMT

[24] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds onto early losses near $4,630, US Yields plunge URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-holds-onto-early-losses-near-4-630-us-yields-plunge-202608251022 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 10:22:26 GMT

[25] Crypto Today: Bitcoin soars past $80K as Ethereum and XRP hold gains URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-today-bitcoin-soars-past-80k-as-ethereum-and-xrp-hold-gains-202608251012 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 10:12:49 GMT

[26] Bitcoin ETFs add $338M as six-day inflow streak hits $2.26B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-etfs-add-338m-as-six-day-inflow-streak-hits-226b-202608251006 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 10:06:03 GMT

[27] British Pound: Dovish repricing points to weakness against Euro - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-dovish-repricing-points-to-weakness-against-euro-ing-202608251003 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 10:03:27 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (10):

[1] Iraq could face heavier costs than Iran if it defies US sanctions, lawmaker says Time: 2026-08-25T11:38:56.596Z

[2] Oman's foreign minister arrives in Tehran for talks Time: 2026-08-25T11:36:14.338Z

[3] Iran left parts of military unpaid while killing protesters, Trump says Time: 2026-08-25T11:12:15.869Z

[4] Iranian envoy seeks six-month stay in Lebanon as foreign citizen - Al Arabiya Time: 2026-08-25T11:07:41.932Z

[5] Iran central bank offers $500 million in cash as rial hits record low Time: 2026-08-25T11:02:50.345Z

[6] China warns of response if US expands Iran sanctions - FT Time: 2026-08-25T10:49:59.131Z

[7] Video: Driver waits 45 minutes for fuel, then the station shuts Time: 2026-08-25T10:39:13.081Z

[8] Qatar says US sanctions on Iran unilateral, backs mediation Time: 2026-08-25T10:25:03.428Z

[9] US aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln to dock in Thailand next week Time: 2026-08-25T10:20:32.155Z

[10] More than 50 Iranian state broadcaster sites hit in US-Israel strikes, chief says Time: 2026-08-25T09:52:57.959Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 178 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily — 1.7% of normal
Throughput: 1.7% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 401
Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 40.0x normal
Tanker Rates: WS125 (+150% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost