Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-24 08:01:32 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.5% (3d) | Alignment: 83% (5 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.463 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.10 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +4.1B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 59% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Copper/Gold -8.2% growth collapse · real yield 2.35% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.55 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.09 normal, SPY/TNX -0.39 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.81 extreme
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.1 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 144 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.70 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 23 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d -0.2% stable, MOVE 73 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.75% moderate, NFCI -0.559 loose

Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, breadth, and inflation leaning bullish, but growth expectations haven't signed on yet — rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 80/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.463; GEX positive at 4.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.1 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $766.40 | 50 SMA $750.94 | 200 SMA $707.13 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $765.98
QQQ: $713.43 | 50 SMA $713.05 | 200 SMA $652.37 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $713.96
IWM: $300.08 | 50 SMA $296.32 | 200 SMA $269.64 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $299.04
VIX: 15.13 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.738%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$766.40	62.91	55.7	$765.98	Bearish	2.23
QQQ	$713.43	62.36	58.6	$713.96	Bearish	2.83
IWM	$300.08	59.41	29.1	$299.04	Neutral	0.54

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.13	50.13	48.2	$11.06	Neutral	0.95
TNX	47.38	44.95	41.5	-	-	-
GLD	$422.26	80.08	34.2	$399.26	Neutral	1.25
DXY	98.84	28.94	37.1	-	-	-
SLV	$62.45	76.54	13.5	$57.69	Bearish	0.34

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.463
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.09B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.75% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 1.00%
2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Healthy slope)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 58.6%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 72.5%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.5%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	89.5%	0/0
Consumer Staples	81.8%	0/0
Health Care	81.5%	0/0
Communication Services	78.9%	0/0
Materials	66.7%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	61.0%	0/0
Financials	60.3%	0/0
Technology	50.8%	0/0
Industrials	43.3%	0/0
Real Estate	38.5%	0/0
Utilities	13.3%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: ELEVATED
WTI Crude: $86.64 (5d: +2.5%)
Brent Crude: $93.87 | Spread: $7.23
RBOB Gasoline: $3.0200/gal
Heating Oil: $4.3500/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.82/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $63.64
UNG (Nat Gas): $9.99

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.548	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.094	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.392	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.808	extreme

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.40
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,187,829.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,495,027.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.10 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $511.7B
Gamma Call Wall: $770 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $766.40)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -10,560 contracts (Z +1.84, as of 2026-08-18)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -4.4% (as of 2026-08-19)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.74%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.03 (Normal)
DXY: 98.84
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.34% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.34%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.34%
Stagflation Risk Score: 23/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6745.7B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $953.6B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,792B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,926B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,056B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,774B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $78,327 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.463, GEX +4.1B, HY OAS 2.75%, breadth 59%.
[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.808 with energy in ELEVATED — crude shock propagating into equities.
[WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -8.2% — growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
[WARNING] SKEW at 144 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~244h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.35%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
Industrial Production: 2026-09-18

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (↑0.5% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.4% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.1% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.68 (↓0.4% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (19):

[1] Mexico Gross Domestic Product (YoY) below expectations (2.2%) in 2Q: Actual (2.1%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-gross-domestic-product-yoy-below-expectations-22-in-2q-actual-21-202608241200 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 12:00:05 GMT

[2] Mexico 1st half-month Inflation climbed from previous 0.07% to 0.1% in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-1st-half-month-inflation-climbed-from-previous-007-to-01-in-august-202608241200 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 12:00:05 GMT

[3] Mexico 1st half-month Core Inflation down to 0.08% in August from previous 0.16% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-1st-half-month-core-inflation-down-to-008-in-august-from-previous-016-202608241200 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 12:00:05 GMT

[4] Mexico Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) registered at 1.4%, below expectations (1.5%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-gross-domestic-product-qoq-registered-at-14-below-expectations-15-in-2q-202608241200 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 12:00:04 GMT

[5] Canadian Dollar: GDP rebound supports Loonie - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-gdp-rebound-supports-loonie-td-securities-202608241151 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 11:51:14 GMT

[6] US Dollar: Debasement narrative caps upside - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-debasement-narrative-caps-upside-ocbc-202608241139 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 11:39:59 GMT

[7] Experts agree: Japanese Yen needs more than intervention to take off from lows URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/experts-agree-japanese-yen-needs-more-than-intervention-to-take-off-from-lows-202608241139 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 11:39:51 GMT

[8] Gold: Breakout sustains upward momentum - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-breakout-sustains-upward-momentum-societe-generale-202608241126 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 11:26:06 GMT

[9] Euro: Positioning supports gradual gains against US Dollar - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-positioning-supports-gradual-gains-against-us-dollar-ing-202608241117 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 11:17:14 GMT

[10] Bitcoin heads towards $80K: What could drive the next move? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-heads-towards-80k-what-could-drive-the-next-move-202608241115 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 11:15:55 GMT

[11] Gold extends rally as markets await US PCE and Warsh's Jackson Hole speech URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-extends-rally-as-markets-await-us-pce-and-warshs-jackson-hole-speech-202608241107 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 11:07:10 GMT

[12] New Zealand Dollar: Retail slump yet hikes priced - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-retail-slump-yet-hikes-priced-bbh-202608241106 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 11:06:44 GMT

[13] AUD/USD Price Forecast: Aussie eases from 12-week highs with bulls still in command URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-forecast-aussie-eases-from-12-week-highs-with-bulls-still-in-command-202608241049 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 10:49:45 GMT

[14] Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP pull back as rally cools URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-today-bitcoin-ethereum-and-xrp-pull-back-as-rally-cools-202608241042 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 10:42:27 GMT

[15] Markets say yes to upside URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/markets-say-yes-to-upside-202608241033 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 10:33:38 GMT

[16] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD pushes higher, but overbought RSI warns bulls URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-pushes-higher-but-overbought-rsi-warns-bulls-202608241026 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 10:26:24 GMT

[17] Where now for cryptocurrencies after last week's surge? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/where-now-for-cryptocurrencies-after-last-weeks-surge-202608241019 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 10:19:50 GMT

[18] Natural Gas - Ready for the bigger upside movement? [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/natural-gas-ready-for-the-bigger-upside-movement-video-202608241010 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 10:10:59 GMT

[19] New Zealand Dollar edges down from highs amid soft retail consumption data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-edges-down-from-highs-amid-soft-retail-consumption-data-202608241002 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 10:02:18 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (5):

[1] Tehran retirees rally over pensions: 'No nation has seen such injustice' Time: 2026-08-24T11:46:58.662Z

[2] Nine out of ten shun marriage, parenthood in Iran International poll Time: 2026-08-24T11:43:02.884Z

[3] Ghalibaf appears to answer Trump with 'Make America Hungry Again' post Time: 2026-08-24T11:21:47.405Z

[4] Basij member killed in attack in southeast Iran, IRGC says Time: 2026-08-24T10:36:23.936Z

[5] US and Israel seek to exploit Iran's domestic problems, Pezeshkian says Time: 2026-08-24T10:12:47.835Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 177 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily — 1.7% of normal
Throughput: 1.0% of normal (0.1M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 425
Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 40.0x normal
Tanker Rates: WS120 (+140% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $1.8 billion/day economic cost