Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-24 06:01:11 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.5% (3d) | Alignment: 83% (5 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.463 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.10 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +4.1B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 59% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Copper/Gold -8.2% growth collapse · real yield 2.35% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.55 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.09 normal, SPY/TNX -0.39 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.81 extreme
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.1 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 144 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.70 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 23 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d -0.2% stable, MOVE 73 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.75% moderate, NFCI -0.559 loose

Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, breadth, and inflation leaning bullish, but growth expectations haven't signed on yet — rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 80/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.463; GEX positive at 4.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.1 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $766.40 | 50 SMA $750.94 | 200 SMA $707.13 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $765.98
QQQ: $713.43 | 50 SMA $713.05 | 200 SMA $652.37 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $713.96
IWM: $300.08 | 50 SMA $296.32 | 200 SMA $269.64 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $299.04
VIX: 15.13 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.738%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$766.40	62.91	55.7	$765.98	Bearish	2.23
QQQ	$713.43	62.36	58.6	$713.96	Bearish	2.83
IWM	$300.08	59.41	29.1	$299.04	Neutral	0.54

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.13	50.13	48.2	$11.06	Neutral	0.95
TNX	47.38	44.95	41.5	-	-	-
GLD	$422.26	80.08	34.2	$399.26	Neutral	1.25
DXY	98.84	28.94	37.1	-	-	-
SLV	$62.45	76.54	13.5	$57.69	Bearish	0.34

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.463
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.09B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.75% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 1.00%
2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Healthy slope)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 58.6%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 72.5%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.5%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	89.5%	0/0
Consumer Staples	81.8%	0/0
Health Care	81.5%	0/0
Communication Services	78.9%	0/0
Materials	66.7%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	61.0%	0/0
Financials	60.3%	0/0
Technology	50.8%	0/0
Industrials	43.3%	0/0
Real Estate	38.5%	0/0
Utilities	13.3%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: ELEVATED
WTI Crude: $86.64 (5d: +2.5%)
Brent Crude: $93.87 | Spread: $7.23
RBOB Gasoline: $3.0200/gal
Heating Oil: $4.3500/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.82/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $63.64
UNG (Nat Gas): $9.99

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.548	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.094	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.392	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.808	extreme

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.40
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,187,829.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,495,027.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.10 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $511.7B
Gamma Call Wall: $772 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $766.40)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -10,560 contracts (Z +1.84, as of 2026-08-18)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -4.4% (as of 2026-08-19)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.74%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.03 (Normal)
DXY: 98.84
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.34% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.34%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.34%
Stagflation Risk Score: 23/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6745.7B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $953.6B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,792B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,926B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,056B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,774B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,527 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.463, GEX +4.1B, HY OAS 2.75%, breadth 59%.
[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.808 with energy in ELEVATED — crude shock propagating into equities.
[WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -8.2% — growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
[WARNING] SKEW at 144 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~244h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.35%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
Industrial Production: 2026-09-18

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (↑0.5% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.4% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.1% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.68 (↓0.4% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (28):

[1] Euro steadies against Japanese Yen as markets weigh ECB, BoJ rate hikes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-steadies-against-japanese-yen-as-markets-weigh-ecb-boj-rate-hikes-202608240958 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 09:58:53 GMT

[2] US Dollar: Event-driven risks shape debasement narrative - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-event-driven-risks-shape-debasement-narrative-mufg-202608240958 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 09:58:53 GMT

[3] Singapore inflation surprises lower, but upside risks keep MAS on tightening watch URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/singapore-inflation-surprises-lower-but-upside-risks-keep-mas-on-tightening-watch-202608240952 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 09:52:25 GMT

[4] Australian Dollar: Momentum builds toward 0.7200 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-momentum-builds-toward-07200-against-us-dollar-uob-202608240948 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 09:48:52 GMT

[5] Waiting on 'economic D-Day' details by US Treasury Sec Bessent URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/waiting-on-economic-d-day-details-by-us-treasury-sec-bessent-202608240941 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 09:41:02 GMT

[6] Canadian Dollar: Trade tensions threaten recovery against US Dollar - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-trade-tensions-threaten-recovery-against-us-dollar-ocbc-202608240939 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 09:39:01 GMT

[7] Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608240931 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 09:31:38 GMT

[8] Polish Zloty: Budget risks point to further weakness versus Euro - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/polish-zloty-budget-risks-point-to-further-weakness-versus-euro-societe-generale-202608240927 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 09:27:35 GMT

[9] Gold bulls lead the markets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-bulls-lead-the-markets-202608240919 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 09:19:45 GMT

[10] Hungarian Forint: Rate path extends beyond summer - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/hungarian-forint-rate-path-extends-beyond-summer-ing-202608240916 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 09:16:49 GMT

[11] Euro holds near three-month highs as investors await US sanctions to Iran URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-holds-near-three-month-highs-as-investors-await-us-sanctions-to-iran-202608240915 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 09:15:23 GMT

[12] Marginal economic impact from the heatwave URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/marginal-economic-impact-from-the-heatwave-202608240914 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 09:14:21 GMT

[13] Japanese Yen weakens against recovering USD; seems vulnerable amid US-Japan rate gap URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-weakens-against-recovering-usd-seems-vulnerable-amid-us-japan-rate-gap-202608240909 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 09:09:12 GMT

[14] US Dollar: Warsh speech shapes Dollar and Treasuries - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-warsh-speech-shapes-dollar-and-treasuries-bny-202608240907 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 09:07:34 GMT

[15] EUR/USD at highest level since may: What comes next? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-usd-at-highest-level-since-may-what-comes-next-202608240906 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 09:06:51 GMT

[16] Dow Jones futures slip as US Treasury pledges buybacks, Middle East tensions persist URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-slip-as-us-treasury-pledges-buybacks-middle-east-tensions-persist-202608240859 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 08:59:45 GMT

[17] Japanese Yen: Slightly bullish within broad range against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-slightly-bullish-within-broad-range-against-us-dollar-uob-202608240856 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 08:56:30 GMT

[18] Stock market: Will money flow into Europe? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/stock-market-will-money-flow-into-europe-202608240853 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 08:53:45 GMT

[19] Gold: Debasement narrative lifts prices - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-debasement-narrative-lifts-prices-td-securities-202608240842 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 08:42:19 GMT

[20] Ether is crushing bitcoin and the 'golden cross' says it may not be done yet URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ether-is-crushing-bitcoin-and-the-golden-cross-says-it-may-not-be-done-yet-202608240832 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 08:32:45 GMT

[21] Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC stalls as profit-taking starts URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-price-forecast-btc-stalls-as-profit-taking-starts-202608240832 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 08:32:22 GMT

[22] Oil: Sanctions risk keeps market tense - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-sanctions-risk-keeps-market-tense-danske-bank-202608240825 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 08:25:58 GMT

[23] Markets wait for Nvidia and Jackson Hole - Dollar still under pressure URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/markets-wait-for-nvidia-and-jackson-hole-dollar-still-under-pressure-202608240824 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 08:24:37 GMT

[24] EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Bears remain in control with 0.8550 support area on focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-gbp-price-forecast-bears-remain-in-control-with-08550-support-area-on-focus-202608240818 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 08:18:55 GMT

[25] Turkish Lira: Policy normalisation supports carry appeal - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkish-lira-policy-normalisation-supports-carry-appeal-ing-202608240812 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 08:12:19 GMT

[26] British Pound refreshes monthly high; looks to extend rally above 217.00 vs weak Yen URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-refreshes-monthly-high-looks-to-extend-rally-above-21700-vs-weak-jpy-202608240808 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 08:08:53 GMT

[27] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD steadies around $69.00 amid US bond buybacks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-steadies-around-6900-amid-us-bond-buybacks-202608240801 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 08:01:32 GMT

[28] Forex Today: Majors stay quiet as investors await US' 'economic D-Day' sanctions URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-majors-stay-quiet-as-investors-await-us-economic-d-day-sanctions-202608240800 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 08:00:45 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (6):

[1] Britain briefs energy chiefs after reported Iran-linked cyberattack - Reuters Time: 2026-08-24T09:45:55.808Z

[2] Pakistan army chief spoke with Trump before Tehran visit - Reuters Time: 2026-08-24T09:25:25.726Z

[3] Iran ready to fight for generations against foreign threats, army chief says Time: 2026-08-24T09:05:38.616Z

[4] Iran's rial falls past 2 million to the US dollar Time: 2026-08-24T08:52:13.165Z

[5] Iran will not let war end on aggressor's terms, Baghaei says Time: 2026-08-24T08:26:51.619Z

[6] Video: Diesel shortage leaves trucks queuing on capital-north road Time: 2026-08-24T08:26:10.912Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 177 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily — 1.7% of normal
Throughput: 1.7% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 300
Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 63.3x normal
Tanker Rates: WS520 (+940% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost