Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-24 04:01:20 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.5% (3d) | Alignment: 83% (5 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.463 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.10 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +4.1B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 59% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Copper/Gold -8.2% growth collapse · real yield 2.35% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.55 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.09 normal, SPY/TNX -0.39 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.81 extreme
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.1 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 144 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.70 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 23 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d -0.2% stable, MOVE 73 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.75% moderate, NFCI -0.559 loose

Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, breadth, and inflation leaning bullish, but growth expectations haven't signed on yet — rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 80/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.463; GEX positive at 4.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.1 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $766.40 | 50 SMA $750.94 | 200 SMA $707.13 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $765.98
QQQ: $713.43 | 50 SMA $713.05 | 200 SMA $652.37 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $713.96
IWM: $300.08 | 50 SMA $296.32 | 200 SMA $269.64 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $299.04
VIX: 15.13 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.738%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$766.40	62.91	55.7	$765.98	Bearish	2.23
QQQ	$713.43	62.36	58.6	$713.96	Bearish	2.83
IWM	$300.08	59.41	29.1	$299.04	Neutral	0.54

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.13	50.13	48.2	$11.06	Neutral	0.95
TNX	47.38	44.95	41.5	-	-	-
GLD	$422.26	80.08	34.2	$399.26	Neutral	1.25
DXY	98.84	28.94	37.1	-	-	-
SLV	$62.45	76.54	13.5	$57.69	Bearish	0.34

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.463
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.09B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.75% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 1.00%
2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Healthy slope)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 58.6%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 72.5%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.5%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	89.5%	0/0
Consumer Staples	81.8%	0/0
Health Care	81.5%	0/0
Communication Services	78.9%	0/0
Materials	66.7%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	61.0%	0/0
Financials	60.3%	0/0
Technology	50.8%	0/0
Industrials	43.3%	0/0
Real Estate	38.5%	0/0
Utilities	13.3%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: ELEVATED
WTI Crude: $86.64 (5d: +2.5%)
Brent Crude: $93.87 | Spread: $7.23
RBOB Gasoline: $3.0200/gal
Heating Oil: $4.3500/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.82/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $63.64
UNG (Nat Gas): $9.99

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.548	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.094	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.392	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.808	extreme

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.40
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,187,829.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,495,027.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.10 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $511.7B
Gamma Call Wall: $772 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $766.40)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -10,560 contracts (Z +1.84, as of 2026-08-18)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -4.4% (as of 2026-08-19)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.74%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.03 (Normal)
DXY: 98.84
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.34% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.34%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.34%
Stagflation Risk Score: 23/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6745.7B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $953.6B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,792B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,926B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,056B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,774B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,313 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.463, GEX +4.1B, HY OAS 2.75%, breadth 59%.
[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.808 with energy in ELEVATED — crude shock propagating into equities.
[WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -8.2% — growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
[WARNING] SKEW at 144 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~244h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.35%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
Industrial Production: 2026-09-18

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (↑0.5% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.4% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.1% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.68 (↓0.4% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (28):

[1] Bessent's presser in focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/bessents-presser-in-focus-202608240759 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 07:59:20 GMT

[2] US Dollar: Momentum fades as yields stay high - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-momentum-fades-as-yields-stay-high-mufg-202608240756 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 07:56:53 GMT

[3] Euro: ECB patience with inflation and growth tension - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-ecb-patience-with-inflation-and-growth-tension-bny-202608240746 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 07:46:41 GMT

[4] Directionless trading as markets await Bessent's Iran-related press conference, Oil FUTs decline URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/directionless-trading-as-markets-await-bessents-iran-related-press-conference-oil-futs-decline-202608240742 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 07:42:24 GMT

[5] British Pound holds near six-month highs as debt woes keep US Dollar rallies shallow URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-holds-near-six-month-highs-as-debt-woes-keep-us-dollar-rallies-shallow-202608240737 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 07:37:36 GMT

[6] US Treasury's Bessent said he would unveil the details of a new economic pressuring plan on Iran today URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/us-treasurys-bessent-said-he-would-unveil-the-details-of-a-new-economic-pressuring-plan-on-iran-today-202608240733 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 07:33:26 GMT

[7] British Pound: Range-trade now, 1.3700 in sight against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-range-trade-now-13700-in-sight-against-us-dollar-uob-202608240733 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 07:33:04 GMT

[8] FX daily: Dollar soft, US policy in spotlight URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/fx-daily-dollar-soft-us-policy-in-spotlight-202608240730 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 07:30:17 GMT

[9] The forex market is switching to a 'debasement trade' URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-forex-market-is-switching-to-a-debasement-trade-202608240722 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 07:22:43 GMT

[10] Canadian Dollar: Trade conflict weighs on Loonie - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-trade-conflict-weighs-on-loonie-commerzbank-202608240721 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 07:21:54 GMT

[11] Bitcoin liquidations shows support at 73-74k, resistance near 83k URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-liquidations-shows-support-at-73-74k-resistance-near-83k-202608240721 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 07:21:13 GMT

[12] Australian Dollar holds near June highs, above 0.7150 ahead of expected Iran sanctions URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-holds-near-june-highs-above-07150-ahead-of-expected-iran-sanctions-202608240720 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 07:20:44 GMT

[13] NZD/USD breaks above a 2 year descending trend line [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/nzd-usd-breaks-above-a-2-year-descending-trend-line-video-202608240719 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 07:19:11 GMT

[14] ECB's Cipollone: Risk of economic stagnation and sharp inflation rise is rather remote URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecbs-cipollone-risk-of-economic-stagnation-and-sharp-inflation-rise-is-rather-remote-202608240709 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 07:09:21 GMT

[15] Canadian Dollar declines as US-Canada trade talks collapse URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-declines-as-us-canada-trade-talks-collapse-202608240702 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 07:02:21 GMT

[16] Cryptocurrencies Price Prediction: Cardano, Pi Network & Bitcoin - Asian Wrap 24 August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-cardano-pi-network-bitcoin-asian-wrap-24-august-202608240658 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 06:58:31 GMT

[17] Gold: Upside risks building as fiscal worries grow - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-upside-risks-building-as-fiscal-worries-grow-ing-202608240658 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 06:58:05 GMT

[18] Nvidia earnings: Five questions investors should ask URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nvidia-earnings-five-questions-investors-should-ask-202608240652 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 06:52:48 GMT

[19] Solana Price Forecast: SOL eyes $100 breakout amid governance voting, renewed ETF inflows URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/solana-price-forecast-sol-eyes-100-breakout-amid-governance-voting-renewed-etf-inflows-202608240649 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 06:49:56 GMT

[20] WTI Oil flirts with the $85.00 level as markets await economic D-Day sanctions on Iran URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-oil-flirts-with-the-8500-level-with-markets-economic-d-day-sanctions-on-iran-202608240645 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 06:45:18 GMT

[21] Equities: Resilience supported by strong macro - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-resilience-supported-by-strong-macro-danske-bank-202608240638 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 06:38:01 GMT

[22] Fragile sentiment ahead of Nvidia earnings, Jackson Hole URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/fragile-sentiment-ahead-of-nvidia-earnings-jackson-hole-202608240635 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 06:35:04 GMT

[23] The week ahead: Jackson Hole and Nvidia results to take focus away from Trump URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-week-ahead-jackson-hole-and-nvidia-results-to-take-focus-away-from-trump-202608240633 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 06:33:27 GMT

[24] Q3 earnings preview: High expectations, positive revisions, and broad-based growth URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/q3-earnings-preview-high-expectations-positive-revisions-and-broad-based-growth-202608240629 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 06:29:12 GMT

[25] German industry supports CEE URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/german-industry-supports-cee-202608240621 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 06:21:55 GMT

[26] Japanese Yen: Psychological resistance and intervention fears - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-psychological-resistance-and-intervention-fears-mufg-202608240618 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 06:18:41 GMT

[27] US to launch Economic "D-Day" URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/us-to-launch-economic-d-day-202608240616 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 06:16:59 GMT

[28] Euro: Upside room toward 1.1800 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-upside-room-toward-11800-against-us-dollar-uob-202608240605 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 06:05:42 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (6):

[1] Chile's Tehran embassy closure does not end diplomatic ties, Iran says Time: 2026-08-24T07:51:11.485Z

[BREAKING] [2] Tanker hit by unknown projectile off Saudi Arabia, UKMTO says Time: 2026-08-24T07:48:32.253Z

[3] Iran now combines 'chess and poker' in foreign policy, Baghaei says Time: 2026-08-24T07:41:53.838Z

[4] Iran warns it may strike countries used to launch US attacks Time: 2026-08-24T07:35:12.328Z

[5] Sanctions and pressure will not resolve Iran issues, China says Time: 2026-08-24T07:25:43.796Z

[6] Iran to cut fuel quotas but has not yat set higher gasoline rate, official says Time: 2026-08-24T06:18:11.791Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 177 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 7 of 60 normal daily — 11.7% of normal
Throughput: 10.3% of normal (1.1M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 425
Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 58.3x normal
Tanker Rates: WS300 (+500% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.8 billion/day economic cost