Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-24 08:32:03 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 83% (5 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.463 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.10 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +4.1B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 59% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Copper/Gold -7.6% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.35% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.55 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.09 normal, SPY/TNX -0.39 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.81 extreme |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.9 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 144 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.42 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 23 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d -0.2% stable, MOVE 73 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.75% moderate, NFCI -0.559 loose |
Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, breadth, and inflation leaning bullish, but growth expectations haven't signed on yet β rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 76/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.463; GEX positive at 4.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: ELAN, KHC, PFE
- Shorts: IBKR, WTW
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 13% (n=230) | 3d 36% (n=230) | 5d 32% (n=230)
- Screener Board Record: 244 closed (hit rate 48%) Β· 152 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $764.58 | 50 SMA $751.75 | 200 SMA $707.55 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $766.48
- QQQ: $709.36 | 50 SMA $713.44 | 200 SMA $652.78 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $711.93
- IWM: $299.68 | 50 SMA $296.68 | 200 SMA $269.91 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $300.62
- VIX: 15.87 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.708%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $764.58 | 57.63 | 49.7 | $766.48 | Neutral | 1.49 |
| QQQ | $709.36 | 58.03 | 54.7 | $711.93 | Neutral | 1.01 |
| IWM | $299.68 | 55.91 | 29.1 | $300.62 | Bearish | 1.64 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.87 | 45.81 | 41.9 | $11.07 | Neutral | 0.94 |
| TNX | 47.08 | 55.56 | 40.9 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $427.50 | 82.04 | 31.9 | $401.03 | Bearish | 0.14 |
| DXY | 98.95 | 33.07 | 38.4 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $62.64 | 77.76 | 11.2 | $57.69 | Bearish | 0.23 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.463
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.09B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.75% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 58.6%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 72.5%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 89.5% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 81.8% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 81.5% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 78.9% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 66.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 61.0% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 60.3% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 50.8% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 43.3% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 38.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 13.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $85.55 (5d: +0.7%)
- Brent Crude: $93.18 | Spread: $7.63
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0000/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.2900/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.51/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $63.64
- UNG (Nat Gas): $9.99
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.548 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.094 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.392 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.808 | extreme |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.40
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.10 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $511.7B
- Gamma Call Wall: $770 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $764.58)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -10,560 contracts (Z +1.84, as of 2026-08-18)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -4.4% (as of 2026-08-19)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.71%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.00 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.95
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.34% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.34%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.34%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 23/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6745.7B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $953.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,792B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,926B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,056B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,774B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $78,589 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.463, GEX +4.1B, HY OAS 2.75%, breadth 59%.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.808 with energy in ELEVATED β crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -7.6% β growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 144 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] SPY (764.58) dropped below ZGL (766.48) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~244h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.35%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.4% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.68 (β0.4% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (11):
[1] United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index dipped from previous -0.02 to -0.08 in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-chicago-fed-national-activity-index-dipped-from-previous-002-to-008-in-july-202608241230 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 12:30:01 GMT
[2] Ripple Price Forecast: XRP risks deeper correction after stretched momentum URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ripple-price-forecast-xrp-risks-deeper-correction-after-stretched-momentum-202608241230 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 12:30:00 GMT
[3] Hurdle for Fed hikes 'very high' as USD shows little sign that it has found a floor yet URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/hurdle-for-fed-hikes-very-high-as-usd-shows-little-sign-that-it-has-found-a-floor-yet-202608241226 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 12:26:21 GMT
[4] Australian Dollar: Cooling inflation but carry remains supportive - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-cooling-inflation-but-carry-remains-supportive-bbh-202608241223 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 12:23:56 GMT
[5] Gold jumps above $4575 as bulls reclaim $4650: Next $4770? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-jumps-above-4575-as-bulls-reclaim-4650-next-4770-202608241218 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 12:18:55 GMT
[6] WTI Oil retreats toward $85 ahead of US economic offensive against Iran URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-oil-retreats-toward-85-ahead-of-us-economic-offensive-against-iran-202608241217 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 12:17:26 GMT
[7] Euro gets leg up from USD debasement trade URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/euro-gets-leg-up-from-usd-debasement-trade-202608241213 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 12:13:08 GMT
[8] CEE FX: Koruna leads as policy diverges - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/cee-fx-koruna-leads-as-policy-diverges-commerzbank-202608241212 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 12:12:30 GMT
[9] Silver Price Forecast: Buyers stall near $70 after strong rally URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-buyers-stall-near-70-after-strong-rally-202608241209 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 12:09:33 GMT
[10] EUR/USD price forecast: Euro/US Dollar faces rejection at 0.618 Arc, potential decline toward 1.1642 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-usd-price-forecast-euro-us-dollar-faces-rejection-at-0618-arc-potential-decline-toward-11642-202608241201 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 12:01:34 GMT
[11] Hungarian Forint: MNB easing and HUF carry prospects - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/hungarian-forint-mnb-easing-and-huf-carry-prospects-bny-202608241201 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 12:01:15 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Iran security forces block birthday gathering for slain protester Time: 2026-08-24T11:48:02.297Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 177 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily β 1.7% of normal
- Throughput: 1.0% of normal (0.1M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 425
- Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 40.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS120 (+140% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $1.8 billion/day economic cost