Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-21 06:01:13 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.9% (3d) | Alignment: 33% (2 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.462 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.31 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +4.9B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 54% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -8.2% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.41% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.55 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.10 normal, SPY/TNX -0.41 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.78 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.0 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.61 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 20 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -0.2% stable, MOVE 73 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.73% moderate, NFCI -0.559 loose |
Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, inflation, and carry flash bullish against the risk-on tape β 4 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 72/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.462; GEX positive at 4.9B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.0 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $762.90 | 50 SMA $750.43 | 200 SMA $706.73 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $769.53
- QQQ: $710.88 | 50 SMA $712.98 | 200 SMA $651.96 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $695.97
- IWM: $297.65 | 50 SMA $296.07 | 200 SMA $269.38 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $299.45
- VIX: 16.01 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.696%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $762.90 | 73.13 | 52.9 | $769.53 | Bearish | 2.73 |
| QQQ | $710.88 | 67.67 | 58.4 | $695.97 | Bearish | 2.71 |
| IWM | $297.65 | 64.40 | 26.2 | $299.45 | Bearish | 2.29 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.01 | 36.15 | 45.5 | $11.06 | Neutral | 0.93 |
| TNX | 46.96 βΌ | 49.05 | 39.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $414.50 | 73.86 | 34.4 | $401.64 | Bearish | 0.14 |
| DXY | 98.87 | 28.19 | 45.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $61.55 | 69.14 | 13.8 | $56.37 | Bearish | 0.26 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.462
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.91B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.73% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 53.7%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.4%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 162
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 88.2% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 81.2% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 72.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 63.2% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 61.5% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 54.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 46.7% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 40.0% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 34.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 28.6% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 14.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $86.21 (5d: +4.6%)
- Brent Crude: $93.15 | Spread: $6.94
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0100/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.3700/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $59.25/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $63.75
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.01
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.545 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.1 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.41 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.782 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.18
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,078,943.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,035,264.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.31 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $542.5B
- Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $762.90)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -4.4% (as of 2026-08-19)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.70%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.99 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.87
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.30%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6745.7B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $953.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,792B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,924B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,055B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,771B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,743 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.462, GEX +4.9B, HY OAS 2.73%, breadth 54%.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.782 with energy in ELEVATED β crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -8.2% β growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~54h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.33%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.4% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (28):
[1] Chainlink Price Forecast: LINK hits seven-month highs amid strong DeFi, institutional demand URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/chainlink-price-forecast-link-hits-seven-month-highs-amid-strong-defi-institutional-demand-202608210955 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 09:55:13 GMT
[2] AI beyond tech: What Q2 earnings told investors about the widening AI trade URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ai-beyond-tech-what-q2-earnings-told-investors-about-the-widening-ai-trade-202608210950 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 09:50:55 GMT
[3] Week ahead - Fed's Jackson Hole and Nvidia earnings to dictate markets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/week-ahead-feds-jackson-hole-and-nvidia-earnings-to-dictate-markets-202608210946 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 09:46:28 GMT
[4] United Kingdom: Burnham sentiment bounce - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-burnham-sentiment-bounce-deutsche-bank-202608210945 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 09:45:59 GMT
[5] S&P Global US PMIs expected to ease slightly in August, still showing solid growth URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sp-global-us-pmis-expected-to-ease-slightly-in-august-still-showing-solid-growth-202608210945 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 09:45:00 GMT
[6] Gold breaks $4,550 as Dollar weakness offsets higher yields URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-breaks-4-550-as-dollar-weakness-offsets-higher-yields-202608210944 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 09:44:18 GMT
[7] Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP bulls accelerate rally amid rising ETF inflows URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-today-bitcoin-ethereum-xrp-bulls-accelerate-rally-amid-rising-etf-inflows-202608210934 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 09:34:30 GMT
[8] United States: Yields risk renewed surge - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-yields-risk-renewed-surge-rabobank-202608210933 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 09:33:19 GMT
[9] USD/JPY faces rejection at 0.382 Arc - Potential decline toward 158.00 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/usd-jpy-faces-rejection-at-0382-arc-potential-decline-toward-15800-202608210932 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 09:32:55 GMT
[10] 1.3670: British Pound hits six-month highs as UK PMI beats expectations URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/13670-british-pound-hits-six-month-highs-as-uk-pmi-beats-expectations-202608210932 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 09:32:16 GMT
[11] Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608210930 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 09:30:09 GMT
[12] Swedish Krona: Riksbank keeps tightening option open - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swedish-krona-riksbank-keeps-tightening-option-open-commerzbank-202608210923 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 09:23:02 GMT
[13] UK PMIs outperform expectations as easing Middle East tensions lift business sentiment URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/uk-pmis-outperform-expectations-as-easing-middle-east-tensions-lift-business-sentiment-202608210919 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 09:19:26 GMT
[14] ECB's KazΔks: Central bank is well placed to act if needed to get inflation to 2% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecbs-kazaks-central-bank-is-well-placed-to-act-if-needed-to-get-inflation-to-2-202608210916 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 09:16:08 GMT
[15] Japanese Yen: Weakness offsets intervention impact - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-weakness-offsets-intervention-impact-mufg-202608210912 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 09:12:54 GMT
[16] Eurozone PMI in line with continued steady growth despite global unrest URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eurozone-pmi-in-line-with-continued-steady-growth-despite-global-unrest-202608210909 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 09:09:18 GMT
[17] China FDI - Foreign Direct Investment (YTD) (YoY) declined to -6.2% in July from previous -5% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-fdi-foreign-direct-investment-ytd-yoy-declined-to-62-in-july-from-previous-5-202608210905 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 09:05:32 GMT
[18] Eurozone PMIs outperform expectations as greater defence spending in Germany feeds through URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eurozone-pmis-outperform-expectations-as-greater-defence-spending-in-germany-feeds-through-202608210905 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 09:05:11 GMT
[19] WTI Price Forecast: Oil supply tightness supports further upside above $90 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-price-forecast-oil-supply-tightness-supports-further-upside-above-90-202608210904 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 09:04:06 GMT
[20] US Dollar: Softer bias with pro-risk flows - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-softer-bias-with-pro-risk-flows-ing-202608210901 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 09:01:49 GMT
[21] Belgium Consumer Confidence Index down to -7 in August from previous -5 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/belgium-consumer-confidence-index-down-to-7-in-august-from-previous-5-202608210900 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 09:00:00 GMT
[22] Euro steadies against British Pound as strong PMIs offer support on both sides URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-steadies-against-british-pound-as-strong-pmis-offer-support-on-both-sides-202608210857 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 08:57:11 GMT
[23] Japanese Yen sticks to gains amid hawkish BoJ bets as USD stays weak on Fed expectations URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-sticks-to-gains-amid-hawkish-boj-bets-as-usd-stays-weak-on-fed-expectations-202608210851 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 08:51:32 GMT
[24] Federal Reserve: Backstop doubts and high intervention bar - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/federal-reserve-backstop-doubts-and-high-intervention-bar-bny-202608210851 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 08:51:21 GMT
[25] Polish Zloty: Inflation re-acceleration weighs on PLN - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/polish-zloty-inflation-re-acceleration-weighs-on-pln-commerzbank-202608210840 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 08:40:12 GMT
[26] United Kingdom flash Services PMI expands faster to 52.8 in August, beats 51.8 estimates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-flash-services-pmi-expands-faster-to-528-in-august-beats-518-estimates-202608210833 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 08:33:07 GMT
[27] United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI registered at 52.8 above expectations (51.8) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-sp-global-services-pmi-registered-at-528-above-expectations-518-in-august-202608210830 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 08:30:17 GMT
[28] United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in line with expectations (51.5) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-in-line-with-expectations-515-in-august-202608210830 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 08:30:15 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (4):
[1] Iraqi prime minister says talks underway on militia weapons Time: 2026-08-21T09:42:47.813Z
[2] Iranian oil offers to China fall as US blockade squeezes exports - Reuters Time: 2026-08-21T09:23:08.725Z
[3] Iran state TV analyst suggests mining waters off Florida Time: 2026-08-21T09:11:17.070Z
[4] Iraq plans to raise oil output to as much as 10 million bpd Time: 2026-08-21T09:01:43.704Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 174 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 16 of 60 normal daily β 22.0% of normal
- Throughput: 22.0% of normal (2.3M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 245
- Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS285 (+470% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.8 billion/day economic cost