Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-21 04:01:22 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.9% (3d) | Alignment: 33% (2 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.462 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.31 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +4.9B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 54% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -8.2% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.41% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.55 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.10 normal, SPY/TNX -0.41 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.78 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.0 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.61 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 20 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -0.2% stable, MOVE 73 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.73% moderate, NFCI -0.559 loose |
Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, inflation, and carry flash bullish against the risk-on tape β 4 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 72/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.462; GEX positive at 4.9B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.0 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $762.90 | 50 SMA $750.43 | 200 SMA $706.73 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $769.53
- QQQ: $710.88 | 50 SMA $712.98 | 200 SMA $651.96 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $695.97
- IWM: $297.65 | 50 SMA $296.07 | 200 SMA $269.38 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $299.45
- VIX: 16.01 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.696%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $762.90 | 73.13 | 52.9 | $769.53 | Bearish | 2.73 |
| QQQ | $710.88 | 67.67 | 58.4 | $695.97 | Bearish | 2.71 |
| IWM | $297.65 | 64.40 | 26.2 | $299.45 | Bearish | 2.29 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.01 | 36.15 | 45.5 | $11.06 | Neutral | 0.93 |
| TNX | 46.96 βΌ | 49.05 | 39.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $414.50 | 73.86 | 34.4 | $401.64 | Bearish | 0.14 |
| DXY | 98.87 | 28.19 | 45.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $61.55 | 69.14 | 13.8 | $56.37 | Bearish | 0.26 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.462
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.91B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.73% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 53.7%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.4%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 162
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 88.2% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 81.2% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 72.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 63.2% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 61.5% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 54.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 46.7% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 40.0% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 34.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 28.6% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 14.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $86.21 (5d: +4.6%)
- Brent Crude: $93.15 | Spread: $6.94
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0100/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.3700/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $59.25/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $63.75
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.01
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.545 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.1 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.41 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.782 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.18
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,078,943.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,035,264.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.31 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $542.5B
- Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $762.90)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -4.4% (as of 2026-08-19)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.70%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.99 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.87
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.30%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6745.7B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $953.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,792B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,924B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,055B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,771B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $76,299 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.462, GEX +4.9B, HY OAS 2.73%, breadth 54%.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.782 with energy in ELEVATED β crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -8.2% β growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~54h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.33%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.4% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (28):
[1] Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI above expectations (51.8) in August: Actual (52.8) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-hcob-manufacturing-pmi-above-expectations-518-in-august-actual-528-202608210800 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 08:00:09 GMT
[2] Eurozone HCOB Services PMI came in at 51.7, above expectations (51.5) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-hcob-services-pmi-came-in-at-517-above-expectations-515-in-august-202608210800 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 08:00:07 GMT
[3] Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI above forecasts (51.7) in August: Actual (52.1) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-hcob-composite-pmi-above-forecasts-517-in-august-actual-521-202608210800 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 08:00:04 GMT
[4] Swiss Franc: Funding role grows as volatility stays low - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-funding-role-grows-as-volatility-stays-low-ing-202608210758 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 07:58:43 GMT
[5] US Dollar: Consolidation around 99.00 after buyback news - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-consolidation-around-9900-after-buyback-news-dbs-202608210750 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 07:50:32 GMT
[6] Dow Jones futures gain as traders weigh US debt buybacks against surging oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-gain-as-traders-weigh-us-debt-buybacks-against-surging-oil-prices-202608210744 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 07:44:51 GMT
[7] Euro remains weaker against Canadian Dollar following German PMI data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-remains-weaker-against-canadian-dollar-following-german-pmi-data-202608210744 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 07:44:41 GMT
[8] Japanese Yen: September BoJ risk builds - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-september-boj-risk-builds-commerzbank-202608210741 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 07:41:01 GMT
[9] US yields are rising, so why is the Dollar falling URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/us-yields-are-rising-so-why-is-the-dollar-falling-202608210737 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 07:37:57 GMT
[10] Germany's flash Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rises faster to 54.1 vs. 52.0 estimates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germanys-flash-manufacturing-pmi-unexpectedly-rises-faster-to-541-vs-520-estimates-202608210732 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 07:32:52 GMT
[11] British Pound: Upward momentum targets 1.3700 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-upward-momentum-targets-13700-against-us-dollar-uob-202608210731 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 07:31:40 GMT
[12] Germany HCOB Composite PMI below forecasts (51.3) in August: Actual (51) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-hcob-composite-pmi-below-forecasts-513-in-august-actual-51-202608210730 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 07:30:25 GMT
[13] Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 54.1, above expectations (52) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-hcob-manufacturing-pmi-came-in-at-541-above-expectations-52-in-august-202608210730 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 07:30:21 GMT
[14] Germany HCOB Services PMI below expectations (50.1) in August: Actual (48.5) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-hcob-services-pmi-below-expectations-501-in-august-actual-485-202608210730 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 07:30:18 GMT
[15] FX daily: Much ado about buybacks, softer Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/fx-daily-much-ado-about-buybacks-softer-dollar-202608210723 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 07:23:33 GMT
[16] Euro: Gentle upside against US Dollar as greenback softens - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-gentle-upside-against-us-dollar-as-greenback-softens-ing-202608210723 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 07:23:04 GMT
[17] British Pound trades firmly against Japanese Yen ahead of UK flash PMI data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-trades-firmly-against-japanese-yen-ahead-of-uk-flash-pmi-data-202608210721 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 07:21:11 GMT
[18] AUD/USD Price Forecast: Hits fresh high since June as bulls eye gains beyond 0.7150 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-forecast-hits-fresh-high-since-june-as-bulls-eye-gains-beyond-07150-202608210717 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 07:17:13 GMT
[19] France HCOB Services PMI registered at 48.4, below expectations (49.8) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-hcob-services-pmi-registered-at-484-below-expectations-498-in-august-202608210715 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 07:15:37 GMT
[20] France HCOB Composite PMI came in at 48.8 below forecasts (49.5) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-hcob-composite-pmi-came-in-at-488-below-forecasts-495-in-august-202608210715 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 07:15:35 GMT
[21] France HCOB Manufacturing PMI above expectations (50) in August: Actual (51.5) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-hcob-manufacturing-pmi-above-expectations-50-in-august-actual-515-202608210715 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 07:15:35 GMT
[22] EUR/USD eyes 1.18 while Gold, Silver and crypto bullish, USD/JPY range bound [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-usd-eyes-118-while-gold-silver-and-crypto-bullish-usd-jpy-range-bound-video-202608210714 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 07:14:52 GMT
[23] Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD hits highs past $69.00 amid US Dollar weakness URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecasts-xag-usd-hits-highs-past-6900-amid-us-dollar-weakness-202608210713 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 07:13:58 GMT
[24] Turkey Capacity Utilization fell from previous 73.9% to 73.5% in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkey-capacity-utilization-fell-from-previous-739-to-735-in-august-202608210700 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 07:00:40 GMT
[25] Turkey Manufacturing Confidence increased to 102.8 in August from previous 102.2 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkey-manufacturing-confidence-increased-to-1028-in-august-from-previous-1022-202608210700 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 07:00:39 GMT
[26] Turkey Consumer Confidence rose from previous 89.8 to 90.8 in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkey-consumer-confidence-rose-from-previous-898-to-908-in-august-202608210700 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 07:00:27 GMT
[27] Indian Rupee: Higher profile after hawkish RBI - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-higher-profile-after-hawkish-rbi-mufg-202608210700 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 07:00:08 GMT
[28] Euro holds gains against British Pound after weaker UK Retail Sales data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-holds-gains-against-british-pound-after-weaker-uk-retail-sales-data-202608210655 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 06:55:14 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (5):
[1] NPT withdrawal proposal under consideration, Iran lawmaker says Time: 2026-08-21T07:52:02.737Z
[2] Iran military chief warns of 'devastating' response to threats Time: 2026-08-21T07:46:00.694Z
[3] Iran lawmaker says deaths of commanders, nuclear scientists involved 'infiltration' Time: 2026-08-21T07:34:56.017Z
[4] Iran parliament speaker visits grave of Soleimani's Iraqi ally in Najaf Time: 2026-08-21T06:47:47.103Z
[5] Islamic Republic cannot endure if people are hungry, Ghalibaf says Time: 2026-08-21T06:06:16.073Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 174 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily β 1.7% of normal
- Throughput: 2.1% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 295
- Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 66.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS9 (-82% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost