Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-21 02:01:44 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.9% (3d) | Alignment: 33% (2 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.462 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.31 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +4.9B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 54% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -8.2% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.41% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.55 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.10 normal, SPY/TNX -0.41 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.78 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.0 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.61 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 20 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -0.2% stable, MOVE 73 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.73% moderate, NFCI -0.559 loose |
Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, inflation, and carry flash bullish against the risk-on tape β 4 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 72/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.462; GEX positive at 4.9B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.0 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $762.90 | 50 SMA $750.43 | 200 SMA $706.73 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $769.53
- QQQ: $710.88 | 50 SMA $712.98 | 200 SMA $651.96 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $695.97
- IWM: $297.65 | 50 SMA $296.07 | 200 SMA $269.38 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $299.45
- VIX: 16.01 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.696%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $762.90 | 73.13 | 52.9 | $769.53 | Bearish | 2.73 |
| QQQ | $710.88 | 67.67 | 58.4 | $695.97 | Bearish | 2.71 |
| IWM | $297.65 | 64.40 | 26.2 | $299.45 | Bearish | 2.29 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.01 | 36.15 | 45.5 | $11.06 | Neutral | 0.93 |
| TNX | 46.96 βΌ | 49.05 | 39.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $414.50 | 73.86 | 34.4 | $401.64 | Bearish | 0.14 |
| DXY | 98.87 | 28.19 | 45.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $61.55 | 69.14 | 13.8 | $56.37 | Bearish | 0.26 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.462
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.91B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.73% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 53.7%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.4%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 162
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 88.2% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 81.2% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 72.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 63.2% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 61.5% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 54.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 46.7% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 40.0% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 34.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 28.6% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 14.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $86.21 (5d: +4.6%)
- Brent Crude: $93.15 | Spread: $6.94
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0100/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.3700/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $59.25/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $63.75
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.01
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.545 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.1 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.41 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.782 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.18
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,078,943.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,035,264.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.31 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $542.5B
- Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $762.90)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -4.4% (as of 2026-08-19)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.70%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.99 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.87
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.30%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6745.7B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $953.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,792B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,924B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,055B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,771B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $75,381 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~54h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.462, GEX +4.9B, HY OAS 2.73%, breadth 54%.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.782 with energy in ELEVATED β crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -8.2% β growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.33%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.4% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (30):
[1] United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) meets expectations (-0.5%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-retail-sales-mom-meets-expectations-05-in-july-202608210600 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 06:00:42 GMT
[2] United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing came in at Β£1.8B, above forecasts (Β£0.3B) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-public-sector-net-borrowing-came-in-at-ps18b-above-forecasts-ps03b-in-july-202608210600 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 06:00:35 GMT
[3] United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) below expectations (3.3%) in July: Actual (2.3%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-retail-sales-ex-fuel-yoy-below-expectations-33-in-july-actual-23-202608210600 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 06:00:28 GMT
[4] United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) registered at -0.9%, below expectations (-0.5%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-retail-sales-ex-fuel-mom-registered-at-09-below-expectations-05-in-july-202608210600 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 06:00:22 GMT
[5] Denmark Consumer Confidence: -13.1 (August) vs -14.7 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/denmark-consumer-confidence-131-august-vs-147-202608210600 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 06:00:04 GMT
[6] WTI steadies near $86.00 as Iran sanctions threat offsets US inventory build URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-steadies-near-8600-as-iran-sanctions-threat-offsets-us-inventory-build-202608210556 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 05:56:28 GMT
[7] Indian Rupee ticks lower due to elevated oil prices, recovery in US bond yields URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-ticks-lower-due-to-elevated-oil-prices-recovery-in-us-bond-yields-202608210551 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 05:51:50 GMT
[8] Cooling demand gains importance in CEE URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/cooling-demand-gains-importance-in-cee-202608210549 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 05:49:58 GMT
[9] Cryptocurrencies Price Prediction: Bitcoin, Ethena & Solana - Asian Wrap 21 August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-bitcoin-ethena-solana-asian-wrap-21-august-202608210548 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 05:48:07 GMT
[10] Pepe Price Forecast: Whale activity, retail speculation fuel fresh PEPE rally URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/pepe-price-forecast-whale-activity-retail-speculation-fuel-fresh-pepe-rally-202608210525 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 05:25:12 GMT
[11] India HSBC Services PMI increased to 54.5 in August from previous 53.3 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-hsbc-services-pmi-increased-to-545-in-august-from-previous-533-202608210513 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 05:13:36 GMT
[12] India HSBC Manufacturing PMI fell from previous 53.5 to 52.9 in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-hsbc-manufacturing-pmi-fell-from-previous-535-to-529-in-august-202608210512 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 05:12:55 GMT
[13] India HSBC Composite PMI increased to 54.6 in August from previous 54.3 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-hsbc-composite-pmi-increased-to-546-in-august-from-previous-543-202608210511 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 05:11:59 GMT
[14] Bitcoin breaks above 200-day moving average for first time since November URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-breaks-above-200-day-moving-average-for-first-time-since-november-202608210510 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 05:10:38 GMT
[15] Saudi Arabia Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/saudi-arabia-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608210506 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 05:06:38 GMT
[16] 52.9: India's HSBC Manufacturing PMI falls in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/529-indias-hsbc-manufacturing-pmi-falls-in-august-202608210503 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 05:03:15 GMT
[17] Philippines Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/philippines-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608210500 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 05:00:29 GMT
[18] Indonesian Rupiah advances despite record Current Account Deficit URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesian-rupiah-advances-despite-record-current-account-deficit-202608210500 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 05:00:25 GMT
[19] United Arab Emirates Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-arab-emirates-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608210456 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 04:56:20 GMT
[20] Solana Price Forecast: ETF inflows, improving liquidity conditions lift SOL URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/solana-price-forecast-etf-inflows-improving-liquidity-conditions-lift-sol-202608210447 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 04:47:01 GMT
[21] AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Strengthens above 113.50 as bullish momentum persists above 100-day SMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-jpy-price-forecast-strengthens-above-11350-as-bullish-momentum-persists-above-100-day-sma-202608210446 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 04:46:44 GMT
[22] Pakistan Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pakistan-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608210446 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 04:46:09 GMT
[23] Euro sits near multi-month top vs weak USD as bulls await move beyond 1.1700 ahead of PMIs URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-sits-near-multi-month-top-vs-weak-usd-as-bulls-await-move-beyond-11700-ahead-of-pmis-202608210439 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 04:39:29 GMT
[24] India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608210435 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 04:35:27 GMT
[25] Malaysia Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/malaysia-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608210430 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 04:30:36 GMT
[26] Netherlands, The Consumer Confidence Adj: -34 (August) vs -35 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/netherlands-the-consumer-confidence-adj-34-august-vs-35-202608210430 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 04:30:01 GMT
[27] EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Rises to near 186.00 as bullish bias prevails URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-price-forecast-rises-to-near-18600-as-bullish-bias-prevails-202608210412 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 04:12:30 GMT
[28] USD/JPY Price Forecast: 20-day EMA remains key hurdle URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-20-day-ema-remains-key-hurdle-202608210408 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 04:08:49 GMT
[29] Gold hits fresh high since June, above $4,550 as receding Fed hike bets undermine USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-advances-to-fresh-high-since-june-amid-renewed-usd-selling-fading-fed-hike-bets-202608210407 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 04:07:20 GMT
[30] Morning briefing: US Dollar weakness continues to drive currency movements URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/morning-briefing-us-dollar-weakness-continues-to-drive-currency-movements-202608210402 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 04:02:57 GMT
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 174 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily β 1.4% of normal
- Throughput: 1.7% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 295
- Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS200 (+300% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost