Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-21 00:01:27 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.9% (3d) | Alignment: 33% (2 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.462 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.31 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +4.9B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 54% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -8.2% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.41% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.55 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.10 normal, SPY/TNX -0.39 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.65 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.0 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.61 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 20 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -0.2% stable, MOVE 73 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.73% moderate, NFCI -0.559 loose |
Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, inflation, and carry flash bullish against the risk-on tape β 4 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 72/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.462; GEX positive at 4.9B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.0 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $762.90 | 50 SMA $750.43 | 200 SMA $706.73 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $769.53
- QQQ: $710.88 | 50 SMA $712.98 | 200 SMA $651.96 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $695.97
- IWM: $297.65 | 50 SMA $296.07 | 200 SMA $269.38 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $299.45
- VIX: 16.01 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.696%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $762.90 | 73.13 | 52.9 | $769.53 | Bearish | 2.73 |
| QQQ | $710.88 | 67.67 | 58.4 | $695.97 | Bearish | 2.71 |
| IWM | $297.65 | 64.40 | 26.2 | $299.45 | Bearish | 2.29 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.01 | 36.15 | 45.5 | $11.06 | Neutral | 0.93 |
| TNX | 46.96 βΌ | 49.05 | 39.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $414.50 | 73.86 | 34.4 | $401.64 | Bearish | 0.14 |
| DXY | 98.87 | 28.19 | 45.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $61.55 | 69.14 | 13.8 | $56.37 | Bearish | 0.26 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.462
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.91B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.73% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 53.7%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.4%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 162
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 88.2% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 81.2% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 72.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 63.2% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 61.5% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 54.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 46.7% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 40.0% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 34.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 28.6% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 14.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $86.21 (5d: +4.6%)
- Brent Crude: $93.15 | Spread: $6.94
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0100/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.3700/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $59.25/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $63.75
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.01
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.545 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.1 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.394 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.646 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.18
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,078,943.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,035,264.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.31 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $542.5B
- Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $762.90)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -4.4% (as of 2026-08-19)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.70%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.99 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.87
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.30%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6745.7B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $953.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,792B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,924B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,055B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,771B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $74,576 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Data integrity: naaim_exposure has printed the same value (79.7) for 17 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is weekly (~5 trading day(s); freeze bar 10). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 28 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 91 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_max_pain has printed the same value (735.0) for 37 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_put_wall has printed the same value (740.0) for 35 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_call_wall has printed the same value (750.0) for 36 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_gamma_flip has printed the same value (746.563209577586) for 35 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_underlying_price has printed the same value (745.9425) for 36 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_flow_dex_pct_shift has printed the same value (0.0) for 35 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_net_dex has printed the same value (41.0097) for 35 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.33%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.4% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (6):
[1] Top 3 Price Prediction: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple - Bulls in control with BTC heading toward $80,000, ETH $2,500, XRP $1.50 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/top-3-price-prediction-bitcoin-ethereum-ripple-bulls-in-control-with-btc-heading-toward-80-000-eth-2-500-xrp-150-202608210331 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 03:31:26 GMT
[2] Swiss Franc edges up against US Dollar amid heightened US debt concerns URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-edges-up-against-us-dollar-amid-heightened-us-debt-concerns-202608210322 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 03:22:40 GMT
[3] Crypto Overview: Bitcoin eyes $75,000 breakout as Ethena and Pump.fun extend rally URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-overview-bitcoin-eyes-75-000-breakout-as-ethena-and-pumpfun-extend-rally-202608210319 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 03:19:10 GMT
[4] Australian Dollar gains ground above 0.7100 as US debt concerns weigh on US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-gains-ground-above-07100-as-us-debt-concerns-weigh-on-us-dollar-202608210245 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 02:45:21 GMT
[5] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD surges to near $69.00 amid heightened volatility URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-surges-to-near-6900-amid-heightened-volatility-202608210237 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 02:37:37 GMT
[6] United States Dollar Index trades around 99.75-99.70, hangs near three-month low URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-trades-around-9975-9970-hangs-near-three-month-low-202608210226 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 02:26:44 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Hormuz ship crossings fall to seven, half previous day's tally - Reuters Time: 2026-08-21T02:41:36.195Z
[2] House Foreign Affairs Republicans back Trump's economic pressure on Iran Time: 2026-08-21T02:13:23.909Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 174 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily β 1.7% of normal
- Throughput: 1.0% of normal (0.1M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 310
- Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS325 (+550% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $8.5 billion/day economic cost