Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-20 22:01:06 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.6% (3d) | Alignment: 17% (1 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.462 above 0.45 and rising β institutions accumulating, 0DTE PCR 1.31 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +4.9B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 54% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -8.2% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.41% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.55 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.10 normal, SPY/TNX -0.39 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.65 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.0 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.61 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 20 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -0.2% stable, MOVE 73 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.73% moderate, NFCI -0.559 loose |
Divergence read: SPY slipping but dark pool, gamma, and inflation flash bullish against the risk-on tape β 5 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 72/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX rising to 0.462 (institutional accumulation increasing); GEX positive at 4.9B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads tightening (risk appetite improving). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.0 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $762.90 | 50 SMA $750.43 | 200 SMA $706.73 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $769.53
- QQQ: $710.88 | 50 SMA $712.98 | 200 SMA $651.96 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $695.97
- IWM: $297.65 | 50 SMA $296.07 | 200 SMA $269.38 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $299.45
- VIX: 16.01 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.696%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $762.90 | 73.13 | 52.9 | $769.53 | Bearish | 2.73 |
| QQQ | $710.88 | 67.67 | 58.4 | $695.97 | Bearish | 2.71 |
| IWM | $297.65 | 64.40 | 26.2 | $299.45 | Bearish | 2.29 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.01 | 36.15 | 45.5 | $11.06 | Neutral | 0.93 |
| TNX | 46.96 βΌ | 49.05 | 39.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $414.50 | 73.86 | 34.4 | $401.64 | Bearish | 0.14 |
| DXY | 98.87 | 28.19 | 45.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $61.55 | 69.14 | 13.8 | $56.37 | Bearish | 0.26 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.462
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.91B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.73% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 53.7%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.4%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 162
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 88.2% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 81.2% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 72.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 63.2% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 61.5% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 54.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 46.7% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 40.0% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 34.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 28.6% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 14.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $86.21 (5d: +4.6%)
- Brent Crude: $93.15 | Spread: $6.94
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0100/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.3700/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $59.25/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $63.75
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.01
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.545 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.1 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.394 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.646 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.18
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,078,943.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,035,264.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.31 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $542.5B
- Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $762.90)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -4.4% (as of 2026-08-19)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.70%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.99 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.87
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.30%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6745.7B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $953.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,792B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,924B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,055B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,771B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $75,062 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.462, GEX +4.9B, HY OAS 2.73%, breadth 54%.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.646 with energy in ELEVATED β crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -8.2% β growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: volatility_regime is STALE (~3h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: pct_above_50sma is STALE (~7h old vs an expected max of ~6h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.33%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000
Earnings:
- WMT: EPS Est. $0.68 (β0.4% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.4% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (11):
[1] British Pound edges higher to near 1.3650, UK Retail Sales data looms URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-edges-higher-to-near-13650-uk-retail-sales-data-looms-202608210155 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 01:55:26 GMT
[2] Canadian Dollar gains ground amid rising oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-gains-ground-amid-rising-oil-prices-202608210153 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 01:53:19 GMT
[3] New Zealand Dollar extends gains to fresh high since June, above mid-0.5900s vs softer USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-extends-gains-to-fresh-high-since-june-above-mid-05900s-vs-softer-usd-202608210141 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 01:41:37 GMT
[4] Euro gains on hawkish ECB outlook despite firm US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-gains-on-hawkish-ecb-outlook-despite-firm-us-dollar-202608210122 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 01:22:50 GMT
[5] PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7817 vs. 6.7808 previous URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-at-67817-vs-67808-previous-202608210115 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 01:15:46 GMT
[6] WTI consolidates around $86.00; bulls potential intact amid US-Iran impasse URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-consolidates-around-8600-bulls-potential-intact-amid-us-iran-impasse-202608210109 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 01:09:56 GMT
[7] CFTC will establish crypto rules if Congress stalls CLARITY Act URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cftc-will-establish-crypto-rules-if-congress-stalls-clarity-act-202608210104 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 01:04:43 GMT
[8] Japanese Yen flatlines after CPI inflation report URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-flatlines-after-cpi-inflation-report-202608210058 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 00:58:01 GMT
[9] Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI meets expectations (55.1) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-jibun-bank-manufacturing-pmi-meets-expectations-551-in-august-202608210031 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 00:31:17 GMT
[10] Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI increased to 52.3 in August from previous 51.2 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-jibun-bank-services-pmi-increased-to-523-in-august-from-previous-512-202608210031 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 00:31:11 GMT
[11] Bitcoin demand turns positive across spot and perpetual markets as price rebounds above $70K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-demand-turns-positive-across-spot-and-perpetual-markets-as-price-rebounds-above-70k-202608210005 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 00:05:54 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] US lawmaker urges strikes on IRGC, economic pressure on Iran Time: 2026-08-21T00:58:04.556Z
[2] Gasoline survey reignites debate over politically risky fuel reform in Iran Time: 2026-08-21T00:36:58.971Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 173 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 4 of 60 normal daily β 1.7% of normal
- Throughput: 1.5% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 157
- Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 50.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS490 (+880% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost