Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-21 08:01:20 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.9% (3d) | Alignment: 33% (2 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.462 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.31 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +4.9B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 54% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -8.2% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.41% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.55 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.10 normal, SPY/TNX -0.41 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.78 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.0 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.61 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 20 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -0.2% stable, MOVE 73 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.73% moderate, NFCI -0.559 loose |
Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, inflation, and carry flash bullish against the risk-on tape β 4 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 72/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.462; GEX positive at 4.9B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.0 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $762.90 | 50 SMA $750.43 | 200 SMA $706.73 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $769.53
- QQQ: $710.88 | 50 SMA $712.98 | 200 SMA $651.96 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $695.97
- IWM: $297.65 | 50 SMA $296.07 | 200 SMA $269.38 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $299.45
- VIX: 16.01 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.696%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $762.90 | 73.13 | 52.9 | $769.53 | Bearish | 2.73 |
| QQQ | $710.88 | 67.67 | 58.4 | $695.97 | Bearish | 2.71 |
| IWM | $297.65 | 64.40 | 26.2 | $299.45 | Bearish | 2.29 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.01 | 36.15 | 45.5 | $11.06 | Neutral | 0.93 |
| TNX | 46.96 βΌ | 49.05 | 39.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $414.50 | 73.86 | 34.4 | $401.64 | Bearish | 0.14 |
| DXY | 98.87 | 28.19 | 45.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $61.55 | 69.14 | 13.8 | $56.37 | Bearish | 0.26 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.462
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.91B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.73% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 53.7%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.4%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 162
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 88.2% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 81.2% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 72.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 63.2% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 61.5% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 54.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 46.7% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 40.0% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 34.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 28.6% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 14.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $86.21 (5d: +4.6%)
- Brent Crude: $93.15 | Spread: $6.94
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0100/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.3700/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $59.25/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $63.75
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.01
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.545 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.1 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.41 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.782 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.18
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,078,943.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,035,264.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.31 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $542.5B
- Gamma Call Wall: $770 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $762.90)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -4.4% (as of 2026-08-19)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.70%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.99 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.87
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.30%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6745.7B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $953.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,792B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,924B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,055B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,771B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $76,708 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.462, GEX +4.9B, HY OAS 2.73%, breadth 54%.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.782 with energy in ELEVATED β crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -8.2% β growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~54h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.33%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.4% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (25):
[1] Mexico Retail Sales (MoM) came in at -0.2%, below expectations (0.1%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-retail-sales-mom-came-in-at-02-below-expectations-01-in-june-202608211200 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 12:00:02 GMT
[2] Mexico Retail Sales (YoY) below expectations (3.1%) in June: Actual (2.7%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-retail-sales-yoy-below-expectations-31-in-june-actual-27-202608211200 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 12:00:02 GMT
[3] British Pound dips hold above 216.50 Japanese Yen following mixed UK data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-dips-hold-above-21650-japanese-yen-following-mixed-uk-data-202608211157 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 11:57:56 GMT
[4] Canadian Dollar: Binary tariff risks shape near-term path - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-binary-tariff-risks-shape-near-term-path-td-securities-202608211151 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 11:51:54 GMT
[5] The cryptocurrency bull market has begun URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/the-cryptocurrency-bull-market-has-begun-202608211149 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 11:49:36 GMT
[6] Clash in the capital as Fed and Treasury contradict URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/clash-in-the-capital-as-fed-and-treasury-contradict-202608211148 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 11:48:02 GMT
[7] Bessent bounce fades fast: Markets reject Treasury buybacks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/bessent-bounce-fades-fast-markets-reject-treasury-buybacks-202608211141 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 11:41:50 GMT
[8] Silver climbs toward $70 as US Dollar remains under pressure URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-climbs-toward-70-as-us-dollar-remains-under-pressure-202608211141 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 11:41:17 GMT
[9] Euro: Set to outperform Pound, US Dollar and Yen - Nomura URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-set-to-outperform-pound-us-dollar-and-yen-nomura-202608211136 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 11:36:11 GMT
[10] India FX Reserves, USD up to $716.91B in August 10 from previous $707B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-fx-reserves-usd-up-to-71691b-in-august-10-from-previous-707b-202608211134 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 11:34:29 GMT
[11] Ripple Price Forecast: Capital inflows lift XRP's outlook as bulls target $1.50 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ripple-price-forecast-capital-inflows-lift-xrps-outlook-as-bulls-target-150-202608211130 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 11:30:00 GMT
[12] Gold on track for third consecutive weekly gain URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-on-track-for-third-consecutive-weekly-gain-202608211126 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 11:26:02 GMT
[13] Can Treasury intervention keep the Gold rally alive? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/can-treasury-intervention-keep-the-gold-rally-alive-202608211125 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 11:25:57 GMT
[14] Australian Dollar rallies above 0.7150 as the US Dollar bleeds amid bond buybacks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-rallies-above-07150-as-the-us-dollar-bleeds-amid-bond-buybacks-202608211124 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 11:24:05 GMT
[15] Experts agree: Weak Dollar backs near-term upside in EUR/USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/experts-agree-weak-dollar-backs-near-term-upside-in-eur-usd-202608211118 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 11:18:57 GMT
[16] US Dollar: Yield management weighs on currency - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-yield-management-weighs-on-currency-bbh-202608211115 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 11:15:01 GMT
[17] $4,600: Gold rallies to three-month high, eyes third weekly gain URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/4-600-gold-rallies-to-three-month-high-eyes-third-weekly-gain-202608211106 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 11:06:55 GMT
[18] Weltrade launches SyntX World Cup 2026 - A $100,000 global trading tournament to mark 20 years in the market URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/weltrade-launches-syntx-world-cup-2026-a-100-000-global-trading-tournament-to-mark-20-years-in-the-market-202608211059 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 10:59:32 GMT
[19] We may be heading for the scenario of one day up, next day not URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/we-may-be-heading-for-the-scenario-of-one-day-up-next-day-not-202608211057 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 10:57:37 GMT
[20] US Dollar broadly consolidates as analysts cast doubts over long-term impact of US Treasury buyback URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-broadly-consolidates-as-analysts-cast-doubts-over-long-term-impact-of-us-treasury-buyback-202608211043 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 10:43:23 GMT
[21] Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: The US Treasury saves BTC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-weekly-forecast-the-us-treasury-saves-btc-202608211020 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 10:20:49 GMT
[22] New Zealand Dollar climbs to highest since June as US Dollar weakens URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-climbs-to-highest-since-june-as-us-dollar-weakens-202608211020 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 10:20:48 GMT
[23] Bessent to detail 'economic operation' against Iran on Monday URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/bessent-to-detail-economic-operation-against-iran-on-monday-202608211014 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 10:14:25 GMT
[24] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD testing three-month highs near $4,600 as the US Dollar dives URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-testing-three-month-highs-near-4-600-as-the-us-dollar-dives-202608211014 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 10:14:13 GMT
[25] US Dollar: Limited upside as fiscal plans questioned - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-limited-upside-as-fiscal-plans-questioned-mufg-202608211004 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 10:04:15 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Iran oil production now barely above domestic needs - TankerTrackers Time: 2026-08-21T10:00:25.451Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 174 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 16 of 60 normal daily β 26.7% of normal
- Throughput: 24.3% of normal (2.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 449
- Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 66.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS135 (+170% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost