Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-20 08:01:41 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 86% (6 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.441 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.08 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +6.7B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 67% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Copper/Gold -7.3% growth collapse · real yield 2.41% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.50 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.06 normal, SPY/TNX -0.35 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.63 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 14.9 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 143 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.81 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 20 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d -0.8% stable, MOVE 71 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.75% moderate, NFCI -0.559 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally — gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (86% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 83/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 83 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.441) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.441; GEX positive at 6.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $769.65 | 50 SMA $749.84 | 200 SMA $706.28 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $768.19
QQQ: $718.00 | 50 SMA $712.98 | 200 SMA $651.51 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $695.96
IWM: $301.88 | 50 SMA $295.72 | 200 SMA $269.09 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $299.41
VIX: 14.89 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.653%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$769.65	77.22	54.4	$768.19	Neutral	0.79
QQQ	$718.00	74.80	61.2	$695.96	Bearish	1.94
IWM	$301.88	67.03	30.7	$299.41	Neutral	0.98

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	14.89	27.18	47.4	$11.06	Neutral	1.01
TNX	46.53	58.20	35.4	-	-	-
GLD	$414.41	70.30	29.9	$398.60	Bearish	0.19
DXY	98.79	20.53	47.0	-	-	-
SLV	$60.40	67.53	13.5	$46.00	Bearish	0.35

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.441
DIX Signal: Neutral
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.69B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.75% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 1.00%
2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 66.6%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.1%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 242
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.2%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	100.0%	0/0
Health Care	86.1%	0/0
Consumer Staples	83.3%	0/0
Communication Services	80.0%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	69.6%	0/0
Materials	69.2%	0/0
Financials	65.1%	0/0
Industrials	64.1%	0/0
Technology	53.7%	0/0
Real Estate	35.3%	0/0
Utilities	25.0%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $84.40 (5d: +3.9%)
Brent Crude: $91.57 | Spread: $7.17
RBOB Gasoline: $2.9500/gal
Heating Oil: $4.3200/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.68/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $63.58
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.01

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.504	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.063	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.351	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.632	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 71.26
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,239,252.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,508,162.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.08 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $518.9B
Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $769.65)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -3.2% (as of 2026-08-12)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.65%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.95 (Normal)
DXY: 98.79
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.30%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6760.0B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $964.0B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.3B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,796B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,923B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,075B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,794B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $71,886 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -7.3% — growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
[WARNING] SKEW at 143 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~54h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hormuz_oil_brent_price has printed the same value (93.26) for 6 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=117887B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.37%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000

Earnings:

WMT: EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.4% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (18):

[1] Japanese Yen trims gains as downbeat foreign trade data offsets US Dollar's weakness URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-trims-gains-as-downbeat-foreign-trade-data-offsets-us-dollars-weakness-202608201154 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 11:54:53 GMT

[2] Japanese Yen: Flows and trade leave Japanese Yen exposed - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-flows-and-trade-leave-japanese-yen-exposed-bny-202608201149 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 11:49:25 GMT

[3] Treasury pulls a FAST one and doubles long-end buybacks, temporary technical relief URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/treasury-pulls-a-fast-one-and-doubles-long-end-buybacks-temporary-technical-relief-202608201144 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 11:44:48 GMT

[4] Silver gives back some gains as US yields rebound URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-gives-back-some-gains-as-us-yields-rebound-202608201144 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 11:44:25 GMT

[5] Euro: Benefits from US Dollar weakness - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-benefits-from-us-dollar-weakness-dbs-202608201140 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 11:40:35 GMT

[6] Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP extend gains as ETFs inflows and improved sentiment boost outlook URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-today-bitcoin-ethereum-xrp-extend-gains-as-etfs-inflows-and-improved-sentiment-boost-outlook-202608201131 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 11:31:26 GMT

[7] US Dollar: Downside risks grow as yields contained - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-downside-risks-grow-as-yields-contained-mufg-202608201128 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 11:28:56 GMT

[8] Gold pares gains, remaining close to recent highs, as Treasury buybacks weigh on US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-pares-gains-remaining-close-to-recent-highs-as-treasury-buybacks-weigh-on-us-dollar-202608201116 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 11:16:10 GMT

[9] Australian Dollar: Softer jobs data keeps RBA sidelined - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-softer-jobs-data-keeps-rba-sidelined-bbh-202608201112 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 11:12:49 GMT

[10] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD corrects below $4,500 as Yields recover some losses URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-corrects-below-4-500-as-yields-recover-some-losses-202608201056 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 10:56:15 GMT

[11] 1.1700: Euro hits three-month highs as US Bond buyback plan crushes the US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/11700-euro-hits-three-month-highs-as-us-bond-buyback-plan-crushes-the-us-dollar-202608201051 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 10:51:20 GMT

[12] FX daily: Introducing the Bessent put in treasuries URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/fx-daily-introducing-the-bessent-put-in-treasuries-202608201045 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 10:45:08 GMT

[13] Meme Coins Price Prediction: Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, Pepe regain bullish momentum URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/meme-coins-price-prediction-dogecoin-shiba-inu-pepe-regain-bullish-momentum-202608201027 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 10:27:25 GMT

[14] A signal, not a fix: Treasury doubles long-end buybacks, Iran whipsaws between deal and D-Day URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/a-signal-not-a-fix-treasury-doubles-long-end-buybacks-iran-whipsaws-between-deal-and-d-day-202608201024 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 10:24:21 GMT

[15] Markets up, yay URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/markets-up-yay-202608201017 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 10:17:46 GMT

[16] US treasury bond surprise drives Gold and EUR/USD higher. Crude Oil elevated [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/us-treasury-bond-surprise-drives-gold-and-eur-usd-higher-crude-oil-elevated-video-202608201015 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 10:15:07 GMT

[17] Euro holds steady against British Pound as ECB, BoE rate hike bets offset each other URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-holds-steady-against-british-pound-as-ecb-boe-rate-hike-bets-offset-each-other-202608201010 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 10:10:43 GMT

[18] United States: Slow growth but data understate jobs - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-slow-growth-but-data-understate-jobs-commerzbank-202608201003 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 10:03:31 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (3):

[1] EU sees no immediate gas supply concern despite price surge since Iran war Time: 2026-08-20T11:47:31.744Z

[BREAKING] [2] Two IRGC members among three foreign fighters killed in Yemen - Al Arabiya Time: 2026-08-20T10:17:34.682Z

[3] Italian senator joins campaign against executions in Iran Time: 2026-08-20T10:10:16.528Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 173 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily — 1.7% of normal
Throughput: 1.7% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 150
Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 66.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost