Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-20 08:32:19 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.4% (3d) | Alignment: 17% (1 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.441 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.08 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +6.7B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 67% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -8.8% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.41% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.50 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.06 normal, SPY/TNX -0.35 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.63 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.0 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.43 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 20 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -0.4% stable, MOVE 71 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.75% moderate, NFCI -0.559 loose |
Divergence read: Moderate divergence β gamma, breadth, and inflation flash bullish while SPY tracks bearish. 5 of 6 signals disagree with price.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 75/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 75 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.441) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.441; GEX positive at 6.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.0 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: ELAN, KHC, PFE
- Shorts: IBKR, WTW
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 14% (n=240) | 3d 36% (n=240) | 5d 32% (n=240)
- Screener Board Record: 226 closed (hit rate 46%) Β· 150 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $764.72 | 50 SMA $750.43 | 200 SMA $706.73 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $769.59
- QQQ: $709.79 | 50 SMA $712.98 | 200 SMA $651.96 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $696.0
- IWM: $299.30 | 50 SMA $296.07 | 200 SMA $269.38 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $299.44
- VIX: 16.04 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.706%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $764.72 | 73.13 | 52.9 | $769.59 | Neutral | 1.15 |
| QQQ | $709.79 | 67.67 | 58.4 | $696.00 | Neutral | 1.30 |
| IWM | $299.30 | 64.40 | 26.2 | $299.44 | Neutral | 1.02 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.04 | 36.15 | 45.5 | $10.00 | Neutral | 0.98 |
| TNX | 47.06 | 49.05 | 39.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $408.55 | 73.86 | 34.4 | $399.08 | Bearish | 0.21 |
| DXY | 98.77 | 31.28 | 40.6 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $59.69 | 69.14 | 13.8 | $55.58 | Bearish | 0.35 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.441
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.69B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.75% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 66.6%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.1%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 242
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.2%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 86.1% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 83.3% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 80.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 69.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 69.2% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 65.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 64.1% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.7% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 35.3% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 25.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $87.58 (5d: +6.3%)
- Brent Crude: $94.61 | Spread: $7.03
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0000/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.3800/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.74/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $63.58
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.01
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.504 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.063 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.351 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.632 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 71.26
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.08 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $518.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $764.72)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -3.2% (as of 2026-08-12)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.71%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.01 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.77
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.30%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6760.0B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $964.0B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,796B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,923B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,075B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,794B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $71,921 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -8.8% β growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] SPY (764.72) dropped below ZGL (769.59) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~54h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.37%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000
Earnings:
- WMT: EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.2% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.4% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (12):
[1] Canada Employment Insurance Beneficiaries Change (MoM) fell from previous 0% to -0.4% in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-employment-insurance-beneficiaries-change-mom-fell-from-previous-0-to-04-in-june-202608201231 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 12:31:15 GMT
[2] United States Continuing Jobless Claims climbed from previous 1.777M to 1.799M in August 7 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-continuing-jobless-claims-climbed-from-previous-1777m-to-1799m-in-august-7-202608201230 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 12:30:16 GMT
[3] Canada Raw Material Price Index registered at -2.2%, below expectations (-1.8%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-raw-material-price-index-registered-at-22-below-expectations-18-in-july-202608201230 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 12:30:15 GMT
[4] United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey came in at 47.4, above forecasts (25) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-philadelphia-fed-manufacturing-survey-came-in-at-474-above-forecasts-25-in-august-202608201230 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 12:30:14 GMT
[5] Canada Industrial Product Price (MoM) above expectations (-0.4%) in July: Actual (0.6%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-industrial-product-price-mom-above-expectations-04-in-july-actual-06-202608201230 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 12:30:13 GMT
[6] United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average rose from previous 199K to 204K in August 14 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-initial-jobless-claims-4-week-average-rose-from-previous-199k-to-204k-in-august-14-202608201230 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 12:30:10 GMT
[7] United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 206K, below expectations (210K) in August 14 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-initial-jobless-claims-came-in-at-206k-below-expectations-210k-in-august-14-202608201230 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 12:30:08 GMT
[8] Canada New Housing Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (0%) in July: Actual (-0.1%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-new-housing-price-index-mom-below-forecasts-0-in-july-actual-01-202608201230 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 12:30:07 GMT
[9] United States: Long-end yield risks contained - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-long-end-yield-risks-contained-ing-202608201225 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 12:25:08 GMT
[10] British Pound gains as Japanese Yen struggles despite hawkish BoJ outlook URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-gains-as-japanese-yen-struggles-despite-hawkish-boj-outlook-202608201213 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 12:13:57 GMT
[11] US Dollar: Treasury buybacks raise fiscal questions - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-treasury-buybacks-raise-fiscal-questions-bbh-202608201211 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 12:11:55 GMT
[12] Riksbank: Early-2027 hike view - Nomura URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/riksbank-early-2027-hike-view-nomura-202608201201 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 12:01:43 GMT
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 173 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily β 1.7% of normal
- Throughput: 1.7% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 150
- Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 66.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost