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2026-W34

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-20 06:01:16 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 86% (6 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β€” Strong alignment β€” structural signals confirm price direction

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” DIX 0.441 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.08 balanced
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED GEX +6.7B strong suppression
Breadth 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Breadth 67% β€” broad participation supports rally
Energy 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Energy STABLE β€” no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ— DIVERGENT Copper/Gold -7.3% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.41% restrictive
Correlations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” SPY/VIX -0.50 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.06 normal, SPY/TNX -0.35 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.63 stretched
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 14.9 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.81 dealer stress
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Stagflation score 20 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED USD/JPY 5d -0.8% stable, MOVE 71 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β€” hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED HY OAS 2.75% moderate, NFCI -0.559 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally β€” gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (86% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 83/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 83 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β€” DIX below threshold (0.441) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.441; GEX positive at 6.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $769.65 | 50 SMA $749.84 | 200 SMA $706.28 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $768.19
  • QQQ: $718.00 | 50 SMA $712.98 | 200 SMA $651.51 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $695.96
  • IWM: $301.88 | 50 SMA $295.72 | 200 SMA $269.09 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $299.41
  • VIX: 14.89 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.653%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $769.65 77.22 54.4 $768.19 Neutral 0.79
QQQ $718.00 74.80 61.2 $695.96 Bearish 1.94
IWM $301.88 67.03 30.7 $299.41 Neutral 0.98

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 14.89 27.18 47.4 $11.06 Neutral 1.01
TNX 46.53 58.20 35.4 - - -
GLD $414.41 70.30 29.9 $398.60 Bearish 0.19
DXY 98.79 20.53 47.0 - - -
SLV $60.40 67.53 13.5 $46.00 Bearish 0.35

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.441
  • DIX Signal: Neutral
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.69B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.75% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 1.00%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 66.6%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.1%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 242
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 41.2%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Energy 100.0% 0/0
Health Care 86.1% 0/0
Consumer Staples 83.3% 0/0
Communication Services 80.0% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 69.6% 0/0
Materials 69.2% 0/0
Financials 65.1% 0/0
Industrials 64.1% 0/0
Technology 53.7% 0/0
Real Estate 35.3% 0/0
Utilities 25.0% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: STABLE
  • WTI Crude: $84.40 (5d: +3.9%)
  • Brent Crude: $91.57 | Spread: $7.17
  • RBOB Gasoline: $2.9500/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.3200/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.68/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $63.58
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $10.01

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.504 elevated
SPY / DXY -0.063 normal
SPY / TNX -0.351 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.632 stretched

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 71.26
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 3,239,252.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 3,508,162.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.08 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $518.9B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $769.65)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
  • Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -3.2% (as of 2026-08-12)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.65%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.95 (Normal)
  • DXY: 98.79
  • Growth vs Value: 0.93
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.30%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6760.0B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $964.0B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.3B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,796B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,923B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,075B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,794B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $71,683 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -7.3% β€” growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β€” normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
  • [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β€” systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~54h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: hormuz_oil_brent_price has printed the same value (93.26) for 6 consecutive trading days β€” publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
  • [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=117887B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).

Seasonality

  • Current Month: August
  • Average Return: +0.37%
  • Median Return: +1.41%
  • Hit Rate: 65%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000

Earnings:

  • WMT: EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.4% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (28):

[1] WTI - Buy trade idea explained [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/wti-buy-trade-idea-explained-video-202608200947 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 09:47:28 GMT

[2] Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC extends gains above $71,000 as liquidity conditions improve URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-price-forecast-btc-extends-gains-above-71-000-as-liquidity-conditions-improve-202608200946 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 09:46:53 GMT

[3] The Dollar has followed in the Yen's footsteps URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-dollar-has-followed-in-the-yens-footsteps-202608200946 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 09:46:30 GMT

[4] Indian Rupee: RBI minutes temper rate-cut hopes - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-rbi-minutes-temper-rate-cut-hopes-dbs-202608200938 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 09:38:34 GMT

[5] Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608200932 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 09:32:47 GMT

[6] The crypto market has broken out of its consolidation URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/the-crypto-market-has-broken-out-of-its-consolidation-202608200925 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 09:25:45 GMT

[7] Federal Reserve: AI, inflation risks and limited FX impact - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/federal-reserve-ai-inflation-risks-and-limited-fx-impact-mufg-202608200925 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 09:25:37 GMT

[8] US Dollar: Policy-driven yield retreat - UBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-policy-driven-yield-retreat-ubs-202608200916 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 09:16:24 GMT

[9] PrimeXBT expands swap-free trading to PXTrader 2.0 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/primexbt-expands-swap-free-trading-to-pxtrader-20-202608200916 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 09:16:03 GMT

[10] Gold soars, Dollar collapsed URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-soars-dollar-collapsed-202608200911 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 09:11:25 GMT

[11] Euro weakens against Canadian Dollar amid higher oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-weakens-against-canadian-dollar-amid-higher-oil-prices-202608200910 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 09:10:01 GMT

[12] Euro: Upside bias targets 1.1725 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-upside-bias-targets-11725-against-us-dollar-uob-202608200905 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 09:05:59 GMT

[13] Eurozone Construction Output s.a (MoM) down to -1.3% in June from previous 0.4% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-construction-output-sa-mom-down-to-13-in-june-from-previous-04-202608200903 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 09:03:27 GMT

[14] Eurozone Construction Output w.d.a (YoY) fell from previous 1.2% to -0.7% in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-construction-output-wda-yoy-fell-from-previous-12-to-07-in-june-202608200903 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 09:03:27 GMT

[15] WTI refreshes three-week high near $86 amid US-Iran deadlock URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-refreshes-three-week-high-near-86-amid-us-iran-deadlock-202608200855 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 08:55:27 GMT

[16] Copper: Tight physical market supports prices - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/copper-tight-physical-market-supports-prices-ing-202608200855 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 08:55:05 GMT

[17] Dow Jones futures gain on Treasury bond buyback relief URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-gain-on-treasury-bond-buyback-relief-202608200850 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 08:50:36 GMT

[18] Indian Rupee: RBI seen comfortably on hold - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-rbi-seen-comfortably-on-hold-commerzbank-202608200846 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 08:46:21 GMT

[19] GBP/USD at three-month high: Outlook hinges on economic data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gbp-usd-at-three-month-high-outlook-hinges-on-economic-data-202608200837 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 08:37:24 GMT

[20] Federal Reserve: Divided hawks shape late-2026 hike risks - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/federal-reserve-divided-hawks-shape-late-2026-hike-risks-societe-generale-202608200833 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 08:33:48 GMT

[21] US Treasury doubles long-dated bond buybacks: Why are yields rising again? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-treasury-doubles-long-dated-bond-buybacks-why-are-yields-rising-again-202608200832 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 08:32:19 GMT

[22] Hong Kong SAR Consumer Price Index in line with forecasts (1.7%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/hong-kong-sar-consumer-price-index-in-line-with-forecasts-17-in-july-202608200830 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 08:30:49 GMT

[23] Hong Kong SAR Unemployment rate remains at 3.7% in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/hong-kong-sar-unemployment-rate-remains-at-37-in-july-202608200830 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 08:30:26 GMT

[24] US Dollar: Upside capped as yields ease - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-upside-capped-as-yields-ease-mufg-202608200824 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 08:24:44 GMT

[25] Bessent put, economic warfare and Fed minutes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/bessent-put-economic-warfare-and-fed-minutes-202608200820 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 08:20:22 GMT

[26] British Pound gains as US Dollar softens on Treasury bond buybacks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-gains-as-us-dollar-softens-on-treasury-bond-buybacks-202608200818 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 08:18:30 GMT

[27] EUR/USD Price Forecast: Doubling US bond-buying plan opens way for 1.1800 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-doubling-us-bond-buying-plan-opens-way-for-11800-202608200815 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 08:15:37 GMT

[28] Japanese Yen: Bullish bias within broad range against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-bullish-bias-within-broad-range-against-us-dollar-uob-202608200811 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 08:11:27 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (6):

[BREAKING] [1] Tanker reports approach by unauthorized vessel off Yemen, UKMTO says Time: 2026-08-20T09:51:11.157Z

[2] Video: Thick smoke rises near Tehran refinery after tanker fire Time: 2026-08-20T09:39:56.589Z

[3] Iran government sets fourth gasoline rate, vice president says Time: 2026-08-20T09:31:27.683Z

[4] Iran's top university expels student over toy rat that mocked Ali Khamenei Time: 2026-08-20T08:29:09.401Z

[5] US focus on Hormuz reflects military failure against Iran, lawmaker says Time: 2026-08-20T08:24:26.017Z

[6] Tehran prosecutor orders pursuit of people accused in hijab cases Time: 2026-08-20T07:54:35.604Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 173 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily β€” 3.3% of normal
  • Throughput: 1.7% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 45
  • Oil Prices: Brent $93.26 (+0.56%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 40.0x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS150 (+200% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.8 billion/day economic cost