Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-20 04:01:19 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 86% (6 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.441 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.08 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +6.7B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 67% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Copper/Gold -7.3% growth collapse · real yield 2.41% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.50 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.06 normal, SPY/TNX -0.35 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.63 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 14.9 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 143 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.81 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 20 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d -0.8% stable, MOVE 71 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.75% moderate, NFCI -0.559 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally — gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (86% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 83/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 83 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.441) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.441; GEX positive at 6.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $769.65 | 50 SMA $749.84 | 200 SMA $706.28 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $768.19
QQQ: $718.00 | 50 SMA $712.98 | 200 SMA $651.51 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $695.96
IWM: $301.88 | 50 SMA $295.72 | 200 SMA $269.09 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $299.41
VIX: 14.89 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.653%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$769.65	77.22	54.4	$768.19	Neutral	0.79
QQQ	$718.00	74.80	61.2	$695.96	Bearish	1.94
IWM	$301.88	67.03	30.7	$299.41	Neutral	0.98

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	14.89	27.18	47.4	$11.06	Neutral	1.01
TNX	46.53	58.20	35.4	-	-	-
GLD	$414.41	70.30	29.9	$398.60	Bearish	0.19
DXY	98.79	20.53	47.0	-	-	-
SLV	$60.40	67.53	13.5	$46.00	Bearish	0.35

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.441
DIX Signal: Neutral
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.69B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.75% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 1.00%
2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 66.6%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.1%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 242
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.2%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	100.0%	0/0
Health Care	86.1%	0/0
Consumer Staples	83.3%	0/0
Communication Services	80.0%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	69.6%	0/0
Materials	69.2%	0/0
Financials	65.1%	0/0
Industrials	64.1%	0/0
Technology	53.7%	0/0
Real Estate	35.3%	0/0
Utilities	25.0%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $84.40 (5d: +3.9%)
Brent Crude: $91.57 | Spread: $7.17
RBOB Gasoline: $2.9500/gal
Heating Oil: $4.3200/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.68/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $63.58
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.01

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.504	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.063	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.351	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.632	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 71.26
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,239,252.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,508,162.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.08 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $518.9B
Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $769.65)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -3.2% (as of 2026-08-12)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.65%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.95 (Normal)
DXY: 98.79
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.30%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6760.0B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $964.0B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.3B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,796B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,923B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,075B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,794B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $69,764 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -7.3% — growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
[WARNING] SKEW at 143 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~54h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hormuz_oil_brent_price has printed the same value (93.26) for 6 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=117887B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.37%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000

Earnings:

WMT: EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.4% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (28):

[1] Greece Current Account (YoY): €-0.603B (June) vs €-0.96B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/greece-current-account-yoy-eur-0603b-june-vs-eur-096b-202608200758 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 07:58:48 GMT

[2] South African Rand: inflation risks from El Niño - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-african-rand-inflation-risks-from-el-nino-commerzbank-202608200753 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 07:53:30 GMT

[3] US Dollar: Under pressure as yields capped - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-under-pressure-as-yields-capped-ocbc-202608200738 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 07:38:41 GMT

[4] New Zealand Dollar advances on RBNZ hawkish outlook URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-advances-on-rbnz-hawkish-outlook-202608200735 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 07:35:27 GMT

[5] The commodities feed: Oil advances as US tightens pressure on Iran URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-commodities-feed-oil-advances-as-us-tightens-pressure-on-iran-202608200732 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 07:32:14 GMT

[6] Sweden Riksbank Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (1.75%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sweden-riksbank-interest-rate-decision-meets-forecasts-175-202608200730 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 07:30:15 GMT

[7] Indian Rupee: Hawkish RBI pause shifts rate outlook - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-hawkish-rbi-pause-shifts-rate-outlook-societe-generale-202608200728 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 07:28:10 GMT

[8] Pi Network Price Forecast: PI lacks bullish momentum as broader market recovers URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/pi-network-price-forecast-pi-lacks-bullish-momentum-as-broader-market-recovers-202608200726 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 07:26:34 GMT

[9] Forex Today: US Dollar struggles after Treasury boosts long-term bond purchases URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-us-dollar-struggles-after-treasury-boosts-long-term-bond-purchases-202608200725 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 07:25:01 GMT

[10] Dollar weakness guides markets as risk appetite rebuilds URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/dollar-weakness-guides-markets-as-risk-appetite-rebuilds-202608200719 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 07:19:37 GMT

[11] Australian Dollar: Upside risk hinges on 0.7150 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-upside-risk-hinges-on-07150-against-us-dollar-uob-202608200719 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 07:19:13 GMT

[12] 98.75 support tested; US Dollar Index under pressure amid US debt buyback plan URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/9875-support-tested-us-dollar-index-under-pressure-amid-us-debt-buyback-plan-202608200718 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 07:18:54 GMT

[13] Japanese Yen underperforms amid rising trade concerns URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-underperforms-amid-rising-trade-concerns-202608200714 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 07:14:00 GMT

[14] US Dollar: Risk-on pattern with softer DXY - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-risk-on-pattern-with-softer-dxy-ing-202608200710 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 07:10:42 GMT

[15] Australian Dollar holds early losses driven by weak job data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-holds-early-losses-driven-by-weak-job-data-202608200704 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 07:04:15 GMT

[16] Canadian Dollar gains traction on fading Fed rate hike bets, US-Canada tariff pause URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-gains-traction-on-fading-fed-rate-hike-bets-us-canada-tariff-pause-202608200704 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 07:04:03 GMT

[17] Swedish Krona: Hawkish Riksbank stance holds - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swedish-krona-hawkish-riksbank-stance-holds-commerzbank-202608200652 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 06:52:45 GMT

[18] AUD/USD holds virtually steady near a two-month high around 0.711 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/aud-usd-holds-virtually-steady-near-a-two-month-high-around-0711-202608200649 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 06:49:00 GMT

[19] Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD stands tall near $67 supported by US Treasury's buybacks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecasts-xag-usd-stands-tall-near-67-supported-by-us-treasurys-buybacks-202608200644 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 06:44:32 GMT

[20] Indian Rupee: Elevated Oil keeps INR lagging against US Dollar - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-elevated-oil-keeps-inr-lagging-against-us-dollar-ocbc-202608200636 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 06:36:09 GMT

[21] Gold buyers back in full force URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-buyers-back-in-full-force-202608200634 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 06:34:48 GMT

[22] Switzerland Industrial Production (YoY) up to 5.5% in 2Q from previous -7.1% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/switzerland-industrial-production-yoy-up-to-55-in-2q-from-previous-71-202608200629 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 06:29:51 GMT

[23] The bond coup URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-bond-coup-202608200626 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 06:26:55 GMT

[24] Equities: Yield relief and healthcare gains lift markets - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-yield-relief-and-healthcare-gains-lift-markets-deutsche-bank-202608200625 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 06:25:52 GMT

[25] Iran's Araghchi says economic D-Day is a diversion from the US crisis URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/irans-araghchi-says-economic-d-day-is-a-diversion-from-the-us-crisis-202608200624 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 06:24:18 GMT

[26] British Pound: Further gains face 1.3655 cap against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-further-gains-face-13655-cap-against-us-dollar-uob-202608200615 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 06:15:33 GMT

[27] Alvotech (ALVO) reports Q2 loss, beats revenue estimates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/alvotech-alvo-reports-q2-loss-beats-revenue-estimates-202608200613 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 06:13:28 GMT

[28] EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Gains traction above 185.00, bullish signals keep uptrend intact URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-price-forecast-gains-traction-above-18500-bullish-signals-keep-uptrend-intact-202608200607 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 06:07:22 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (7):

[1] Iran lawmaker blames mismanagement for truck delays at northeast border Time: 2026-08-20T07:44:02.930Z

[2] Rosatom ties could enable Iran to build nuclear power plants, official says Time: 2026-08-20T07:34:28.571Z

[3] Iran deputy FM calls Trump's economic campaign a 'miscalculation' Time: 2026-08-20T07:31:38.489Z

[4] Pakistan condemns Houthi ship attack that killed two of its sailors Time: 2026-08-20T07:23:27.792Z

[5] Iran warns weapons will be 'more destructive' in another war Time: 2026-08-20T07:00:09.502Z

[BREAKING] [6] Iran executes foreign national over role in Isfahan protests Time: 2026-08-20T06:37:07.056Z

[7] Iran dismisses Trump's 'economic D-Day' as diversion from US debt Time: 2026-08-20T06:09:59.032Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 173 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily — 1.7% of normal
Throughput: 1.7% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 250
Oil Prices: Brent $93.26 (+0.56%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 66.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS210 (+320% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost