Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-20 02:01:30 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 86% (6 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.441 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.08 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +6.7B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 67% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Copper/Gold -7.3% growth collapse · real yield 2.41% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.50 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.06 normal, SPY/TNX -0.35 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.63 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 14.9 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 143 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.81 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 20 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d -0.8% stable, MOVE 71 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.75% moderate, NFCI -0.559 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally — gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (86% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 83/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 83 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.441) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.441; GEX positive at 6.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $769.65 | 50 SMA $749.84 | 200 SMA $706.28 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $768.19
QQQ: $718.00 | 50 SMA $712.98 | 200 SMA $651.51 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $695.96
IWM: $301.88 | 50 SMA $295.72 | 200 SMA $269.09 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $299.41
VIX: 14.89 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.653%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$769.65	77.22	54.4	$768.19	Neutral	0.79
QQQ	$718.00	74.80	61.2	$695.96	Bearish	1.94
IWM	$301.88	67.03	30.7	$299.41	Neutral	0.98

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	14.89	27.18	47.4	$11.06	Neutral	1.01
TNX	46.53	58.20	35.4	-	-	-
GLD	$414.41	70.30	29.9	$398.60	Bearish	0.19
DXY	98.79	20.53	47.0	-	-	-
SLV	$60.40	67.53	13.5	$46.00	Bearish	0.35

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.441
DIX Signal: Neutral
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.69B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.75% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 1.00%
2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 66.6%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.1%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 242
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.2%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	100.0%	0/0
Health Care	86.1%	0/0
Consumer Staples	83.3%	0/0
Communication Services	80.0%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	69.6%	0/0
Materials	69.2%	0/0
Financials	65.1%	0/0
Industrials	64.1%	0/0
Technology	53.7%	0/0
Real Estate	35.3%	0/0
Utilities	25.0%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $84.40 (5d: +3.9%)
Brent Crude: $91.57 | Spread: $7.17
RBOB Gasoline: $2.9500/gal
Heating Oil: $4.3200/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.68/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $63.58
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.01

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.504	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.063	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.351	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.632	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 71.26
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,239,252.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,508,162.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.08 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $518.9B
Gamma Call Wall: $769 | Put Wall: $768 (Spot: $769.65)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -3.2% (as of 2026-08-12)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.65%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.95 (Normal)
DXY: 98.79
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.30%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6760.0B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $964.0B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.3B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,796B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,923B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,075B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,794B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $69,361 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~54h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -7.3% — growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
[WARNING] SKEW at 143 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] Data integrity: hormuz_oil_brent_price has printed the same value (93.26) for 6 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.37%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000

Earnings:

WMT: EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.4% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (28):

[1] Denmark Gross Domestic Product (YoY) down to 4.6% in 2Q from previous 6.2% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/denmark-gross-domestic-product-yoy-down-to-46-in-2q-from-previous-62-202608200600 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 06:00:31 GMT

[2] Switzerland Trade Balance: 8370M (July) vs 5224M URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/switzerland-trade-balance-8370m-july-vs-5224m-202608200600 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 06:00:28 GMT

[3] Denmark Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) fell from previous 1.5% to 0.3% in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/denmark-gross-domestic-product-qoq-fell-from-previous-15-to-03-in-2q-202608200600 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 06:00:21 GMT

[4] Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) came in at 1.1%, above forecasts (0.7%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-producer-price-index-mom-came-in-at-11-above-forecasts-07-in-july-202608200600 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 06:00:07 GMT

[5] Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at 3%, above forecasts (2.7%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-producer-price-index-yoy-came-in-at-3-above-forecasts-27-in-july-202608200600 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 06:00:07 GMT

[6] Switzerland Trade Balance up to 8730M in July from previous 5224M URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/switzerland-trade-balance-up-to-8730m-in-july-from-previous-5224m-202608200600 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 06:00:05 GMT

[7] Asian TECH and government bonds rally on UST's 'mini QE' URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/asian-tech-and-government-bonds-rally-on-usts-mini-qe-202608200557 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 05:57:23 GMT

[8] ECB minutes in focus as markets price September hike URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/ecb-minutes-in-focus-as-markets-price-september-hike-202608200544 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 05:44:25 GMT

[9] Rushed CLARITY Act vote could set legislation back, Gallego warns URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/rushed-clarity-act-vote-could-set-legislation-back-gallego-warns-202608200541 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 05:41:16 GMT

[10] Indonesian Rupiah strengthens as BI to focus on currency stability URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesian-rupiah-strengthens-as-bi-to-focus-on-currency-stability-202608200531 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 05:31:09 GMT

[11] WTI Price Forecast: Bulls seem hesitant below $85.00 and 61.8% Fibo. hurdle URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-price-forecast-bulls-seem-hesitant-below-8500-and-618-fibo-hurdle-202608200528 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 05:28:57 GMT

[12] Cryptocurrencies Price Prediction: Solana, Ripple & Bitcoin - Asian Wrap 20 August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-solana-ripple-bitcoin-asian-wrap-20-august-202608200527 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 05:27:32 GMT

[13] Gold holds firm as Fed minutes and Iran risks keep markets cautious URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-holds-firm-as-fed-minutes-and-iran-risks-keep-markets-cautious-202608200519 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 05:19:09 GMT

[14] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Strengthens above 1.3600 as bullish trend holds above 100-day SMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-strengthens-above-13600-as-bullish-trend-holds-above-100-day-sma-202608200513 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 05:13:58 GMT

[15] Swiss Franc weakens ahead of Trade Balance data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-weakens-ahead-of-trade-balance-data-202608200510 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 05:10:13 GMT

[16] Saudi Arabia Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/saudi-arabia-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608200505 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 05:05:51 GMT

[17] Top Altcoins Price Forecast: Ripple rallies above $1, Solana eyes $85, Cardano eases gains URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/top-altcoins-price-forecast-ripple-rallies-above-1-solana-eyes-85-cardano-eases-gains-202608200503 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 05:03:03 GMT

[18] Indian Rupee rebounds after three-day losing streak against US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-rebounds-after-three-day-losing-streak-against-us-dollar-202608200502 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 05:02:58 GMT

[19] Philippines Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/philippines-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608200500 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 05:00:49 GMT

[20] United Arab Emirates Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-arab-emirates-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608200458 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 04:58:00 GMT

[21] Pakistan Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pakistan-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608200448 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 04:48:03 GMT

[22] Euro consolidates near late May highs as USD draws support from hawkish Fed, Iran risks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-consolidates-near-late-may-highs-as-usd-draws-support-from-hawkish-fed-iran-risks-202608200442 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 04:42:45 GMT

[23] United States Dollar Index weakens below 99.00 on Fed repricing, Treasury bond buybacks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-weakens-below-9900-on-fed-repricing-treasury-bond-buybacks-202608200437 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 04:37:40 GMT

[24] India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608200437 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 04:37:12 GMT

[25] Malaysia Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/malaysia-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608200432 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 04:32:05 GMT

[26] Netherlands, The Unemployment Rate s.a (3M) increased to 4% in July from previous 3.8% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/netherlands-the-unemployment-rate-sa-3m-increased-to-4-in-july-from-previous-38-202608200430 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 04:30:01 GMT

[27] Ripple and Stellar outlook: Extend gains as expanded US Treasury buybacks trigger crypto short squeeze URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ripple-and-stellar-outlook-extend-gains-as-expanded-us-treasury-buybacks-trigger-crypto-short-squeeze-202608200419 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 04:19:45 GMT

[28] Canadian Dollar gains on higher oil prices, weaker US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-gains-on-higher-oil-prices-weaker-us-dollar-202608200416 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 04:16:03 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (3):

[1] IRGC announces five-hour window for controlled blasts in Isfahan Time: 2026-08-20T05:33:57.323Z

[2] Iran lawmaker says anti-infiltration bill will not restrict foreign ties Time: 2026-08-20T05:08:47.388Z

[3] Hormuz shipping traffic remains flat as US-Iran talks stay deadlocked - Reuters Time: 2026-08-20T04:15:08.467Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 173 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 13 of 60 normal daily — 21.7% of normal
Throughput: 20.6% of normal (2.1M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 449
Oil Prices: Brent $93.26 (+0.56%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 66.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS490 (+880% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost