Skip to content
← Archive

2026-W34

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-18 08:01:27 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.4% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β€” Strong divergence β€” structural signals broadly disagree with price

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED DIX 0.475 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.32 put-heavy
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT GEX +6.8B strong suppression
Breadth 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Breadth 62% β€” broad participation supports rally
Energy 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Energy STABLE β€” no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED Copper/Gold -6.7% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.41% restrictive
Correlations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” SPY/VIX -0.56 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.14 normal, SPY/TNX -0.44 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.68 stretched
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 15.2 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 6.18 dealer fear
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Stagflation score 18 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT USD/JPY 5d +0.1% stable, MOVE 76 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β€” hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT HY OAS 2.67% benign, NFCI -0.549 loose

Divergence read: Strong divergence β€” gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β€” reversal risk if structure holds.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 84/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.475; GEX positive at 6.8B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $772.65 | 50 SMA $748.93 | 200 SMA $705.46 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.95
  • QQQ: $729.98 | 50 SMA $712.95 | 200 SMA $650.62 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $718.93
  • IWM: $304.08 | 50 SMA $295.10 | 200 SMA $268.55 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $282.5
  • VIX: 15.19 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.724%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $772.65 75.15 55.5 $755.95 Neutral 1.26
QQQ $729.98 70.52 60.4 $718.93 Bearish 0.47
IWM $304.08 67.58 27.3 $282.50 Neutral 0.80

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 15.19 31.40 50.9 $10.50 Neutral 1.13
TNX 47.24 55.28 40.7 - - -
GLD $405.90 71.08 27.5 $389.28 Bearish 0.37
DXY 99.60 24.44 29.9 - - -
SLV $59.62 69.47 11.2 $45.00 Bearish 0.29

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.475
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.8B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.67% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.98%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.53% (Healthy slope)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 62.5%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.0%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 483
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 31.4%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Energy 100.0% 0/0
Health Care 80.4% 0/0
Communication Services 76.5% 0/0
Financials 71.6% 0/0
Materials 70.8% 0/0
Industrials 67.7% 0/0
Technology 62.5% 0/0
Consumer Staples 57.6% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 54.2% 0/0
Real Estate 23.1% 0/0
Utilities 16.7% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: STABLE
  • WTI Crude: $85.00 (5d: +2.2%)
  • Brent Crude: $91.12 | Spread: $6.12
  • RBOB Gasoline: $2.9900/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.3100/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $59.06/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $62.58
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $9.83

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.558 elevated
SPY / DXY -0.139 normal
SPY / TNX -0.441 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.676 stretched

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 75.63
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 2,948,207.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 3,884,444.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.32 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $527.9B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $772.65)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
  • Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -3.2% (as of 2026-08-12)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.72%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.60
  • Growth vs Value: 0.94
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.25% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.28%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.31%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6760.0B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $964.0B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.3B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,796B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,859B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,040B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,695B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,279 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [WARNING] VVIX/VIX ratio at 6.2 β€” vol-of-vol outpacing VIX, uncertainty about uncertainty rising.
  • [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -6.7% β€” growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
  • [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 6/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β€” structural repricing risk elevated.
  • [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β€” normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.475, GEX +6.8B, HY OAS 2.67%, breadth 62%.
  • [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β€” systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~268h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: August
  • Average Return: +0.39%
  • Median Return: +1.41%
  • Hit Rate: 65%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Retail Sales: 660047.0 | Prev: 665054.0

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
  • Retail Sales: 2026-09-16

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑8.1% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.4% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (23):

[1] European gas: LNG inflows key for prices - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/european-gas-lng-inflows-key-for-prices-commerzbank-202608181157 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 11:57:58 GMT

[2] Swiss Franc/Japanese Yen faces rejection at 0.618 Arc - Potential decline toward 195.80 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/swiss-franc-japanese-yen-faces-rejection-at-0618-arc-potential-decline-toward-19580-202608181156 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 11:56:30 GMT

[3] Gold: Higher-rate risk to keep prices range-bound - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-higher-rate-risk-to-keep-prices-range-bound-td-securities-202608181146 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 11:46:28 GMT

[4] NZD/USD Price Forecast: Kiwi fails to find follow-through above 0.5900 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-kiwi-fails-to-find-follow-through-above-05900-202608181146 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 11:46:22 GMT

[5] Silver retreats toward $65 ahead of Fed Minutes as energy tensions cloud outlook URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-retreats-toward-65-ahead-of-fed-minutes-as-energy-tensions-cloud-outlook-202608181146 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 11:46:20 GMT

[6] Oil: Hormuz conflict keeps prices elevated - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-hormuz-conflict-keeps-prices-elevated-bny-202608181135 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 11:35:22 GMT

[7] Qatar: Iran-Oman bilateral Hormuz agreement needed before US-Iran talks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/qatar-iran-oman-bilateral-hormuz-agreement-needed-before-us-iran-talks-202608181128 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 11:28:52 GMT

[8] US Dollar: Safe haven status faces debt-market strains - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-safe-haven-status-faces-debt-market-strains-rabobank-202608181124 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 11:24:10 GMT

[9] USD/JPY Price Forecast: Aims to extend rally above 160.00 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-aims-to-extend-rally-above-16000-202608181115 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 11:15:08 GMT

[10] Copper: Squeeze deepens on tight supply - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/copper-squeeze-deepens-on-tight-supply-ing-202608181113 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 11:13:45 GMT

[11] Bonds in the danger zone: Global yields surge, Oil climbs above $90 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/bonds-in-the-danger-zone-global-yields-surge-oil-climbs-above-90-202608181109 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 11:09:18 GMT

[12] Cryptocurrencies Price Prediction: Bitcoin, PI & Chainlink - European Wrap 18 August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-bitcoin-pi-chainlink-european-wrap-18-august-202608181107 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 11:07:24 GMT

[13] Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP falter amid escalating US-Iran tensions URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-today-bitcoin-ethereum-xrp-falter-amid-escalating-us-iran-tensions-202608181100 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 11:00:00 GMT

[14] Markets say no to the upside URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/markets-say-no-to-the-upside-202608181053 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 10:53:09 GMT

[15] Gold falls as rising US Treasury yields strengthen the US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-falls-as-rising-us-treasury-yields-strengthen-the-us-dollar-202608181051 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 10:51:51 GMT

[16] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD eases below $4,400 as US yields rally URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-eases-below-4-400-as-us-yields-rally-202608181043 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 10:43:56 GMT

[17] CFI South Africa appoints François du Plessis as Chief Executive Officer URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/cfi-south-africa-appoints-francois-du-plessis-as-chief-executive-officer-202608181039 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 10:39:57 GMT

[18] Can BTC hold above 64K as Oil and Treasury yields rise? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/can-btc-hold-above-64k-as-oil-and-treasury-yields-rise-202608181038 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 10:38:38 GMT

[19] Will Brent return to $100 a barrel? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/will-brent-return-to-100-a-barrel-202608181033 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 10:33:14 GMT

[20] Growth navigator in response to 2Q26 GDP data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/growth-navigator-in-response-to-2q26-gdp-data-202608181030 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 10:30:40 GMT

[21] Brent tops $90 as US-Iran war disrupts Hormuz Oil supplies URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/brent-tops-90-as-us-iran-war-disrupts-hormuz-oil-supplies-202608181010 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 10:10:32 GMT

[22] Swiss Franc: Growing role as funding currency - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-growing-role-as-funding-currency-ing-202608181003 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 10:03:46 GMT

[23] Gold and Silver still bullish on weaker USD - Oil higher on Lebanon and Iran aggression [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-and-silver-still-bullish-on-weaker-usd-oil-higher-on-lebanon-and-iran-aggression-video-202608181003 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 10:03:29 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (8):

[1] Iran official threatens to 'correct' Trump over Hormuz claim Time: 2026-08-18T11:52:16.231Z

[2] Trump posts image calling Strait of Hormuz 'new US territory' Time: 2026-08-18T11:15:55.397Z

[3] Leaked audio: Iran's Basij brace for new protests and fear being named online Time: 2026-08-18T11:00:18.200Z

[BREAKING] [4] Qatar says downed Iranian aircraft were 'aggressors' Time: 2026-08-18T10:39:42.862Z

[5] Iraq vows to pursue those behind drone attacks in Erbil Time: 2026-08-18T10:25:56.137Z

[6] Forced to serve in the IRGC, now fighting to stay in Canada Time: 2026-08-18T10:22:50.303Z

[7] Chinese state tankers avoid Strait of Hormuz, Bab al-Mandab - Reuters Time: 2026-08-18T10:13:41.520Z

[8] Houthis target Yemen's Marib with missiles and drones - Al Hadath Time: 2026-08-18T10:09:59.235Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 171 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 12 of 60 normal daily β€” 20.0% of normal
  • Throughput: 20.0% of normal (2.1M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 449
  • Oil Prices: Brent $93.26 (+0.56%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 56.7x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS372 (+644% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost