Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-18 06:01:14 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.4% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE — Strong divergence — structural signals broadly disagree with price

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.475 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.32 put-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	GEX +6.8B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Breadth 62% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	Copper/Gold -6.7% growth collapse · real yield 2.41% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.56 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.14 normal, SPY/TNX -0.44 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.68 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.2 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 143 firm · VVIX/VIX 6.18 dealer fear
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Stagflation score 18 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	USD/JPY 5d +0.1% stable, MOVE 76 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	HY OAS 2.67% benign, NFCI -0.549 loose

Divergence read: Strong divergence — gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline — reversal risk if structure holds.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 84/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.475; GEX positive at 6.8B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $772.65 | 50 SMA $748.93 | 200 SMA $705.46 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.95
QQQ: $729.98 | 50 SMA $712.95 | 200 SMA $650.62 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $718.93
IWM: $304.08 | 50 SMA $295.10 | 200 SMA $268.55 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $282.5
VIX: 15.19 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.724%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$772.65	75.15	55.5	$755.95	Neutral	1.26
QQQ	$729.98	70.52	60.4	$718.93	Bearish	0.47
IWM	$304.08	67.58	27.3	$282.50	Neutral	0.80

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.19	31.40	50.9	$10.50	Neutral	1.13
TNX	47.24	55.28	40.7	-	-	-
GLD	$405.90	71.08	27.5	$389.28	Bearish	0.37
DXY	99.60	24.44	29.9	-	-	-
SLV	$59.62	69.47	11.2	$45.00	Bearish	0.29

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.475
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.8B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.67% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.98%
2s10s Spread: 0.53% (Healthy slope)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 62.5%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.0%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 483
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.4%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	100.0%	0/0
Health Care	80.4%	0/0
Communication Services	76.5%	0/0
Financials	71.6%	0/0
Materials	70.8%	0/0
Industrials	67.7%	0/0
Technology	62.5%	0/0
Consumer Staples	57.6%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	54.2%	0/0
Real Estate	23.1%	0/0
Utilities	16.7%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $85.00 (5d: +2.2%)
Brent Crude: $91.12 | Spread: $6.12
RBOB Gasoline: $2.9900/gal
Heating Oil: $4.3100/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $59.06/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $62.58
UNG (Nat Gas): $9.83

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.558	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.139	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.441	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.676	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 75.63
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 2,948,207.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,884,444.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.32 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $527.9B
Gamma Call Wall: $780 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $772.65)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -3.2% (as of 2026-08-12)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.72%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
DXY: 99.60
Growth vs Value: 0.94
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.25% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.28%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.31%
Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6760.0B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $964.0B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.3B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,796B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,859B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,040B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,695B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,100 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SKEW at 143 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] VVIX/VIX ratio at 6.2 — vol-of-vol outpacing VIX, uncertainty about uncertainty rising.
[WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -6.7% — growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
[WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 6/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend — structural repricing risk elevated.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.475, GEX +6.8B, HY OAS 2.67%, breadth 62%.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~268h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.39%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Retail Sales: 660047.0 | Prev: 665054.0

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
Retail Sales: 2026-09-16

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑8.1% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.4% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (29):

[1] Bitcoin attempted to push the market off its low URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-attempted-to-push-the-market-off-its-low-202608180953 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 09:53:48 GMT

[2] Euro ticks higher against the British Pound after upbeat German economic sentiment URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-ticks-higher-against-the-british-pound-after-upbeat-german-economic-sentiment-202608180952 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 09:52:15 GMT

[3] The commodities feed: Oil extends gains on supply concerns URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-commodities-feed-oil-extends-gains-on-supply-concerns-202608180952 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 09:52:07 GMT

[4] Crude and bond yields making recent highs as inflation read-through gets repriced URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/crude-and-bond-yields-making-recent-highs-as-inflation-read-through-gets-repriced-202608180950 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 09:50:06 GMT

[5] Japanese Yen: Bearish bias within tight range against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-bearish-bias-within-tight-range-against-us-dollar-uob-202608180947 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 09:47:49 GMT

[6] United Kingdom 10-y Bond Auction rose from previous 5.04% to 5.16% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-10-y-bond-auction-rose-from-previous-504-to-516-202608180932 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 09:32:59 GMT

[7] Thailand: Middle East shock tests growth - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/thailand-middle-east-shock-tests-growth-dbs-202608180931 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 09:31:28 GMT

[8] Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608180931 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 09:31:09 GMT

[9] Euro remains subdued following German ZEW Survey data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-remains-subdued-following-german-zew-survey-data-202608180923 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 09:23:43 GMT

[10] Why long-term development matters in financial markets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/education/why-long-term-development-matters-in-financial-markets-202608180923 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 09:23:29 GMT

[11] China: Credit-light growth reshapes loan demand - Standard Chartered URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-credit-light-growth-reshapes-loan-demand-standard-chartered-202608180919 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 09:19:47 GMT

[12] Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC holds recent gains above 50-day EMA amid improving momentum URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-price-forecast-btc-holds-recent-gains-above-50-day-ema-amid-improving-momentum-202608180917 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 09:17:39 GMT

[13] British Pound trades lower against US Dollar after soft UK employment data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-trades-lower-against-us-dollar-after-soft-uk-employment-data-202608180916 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 09:16:07 GMT

[14] WTI consolidates below $84.50, two-week top as bullish bias remains amid Hormuz standoff URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-consolidates-below-8450-two-week-top-as-bullish-bias-remains-amid-hormuz-standoff-202608180912 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 09:12:50 GMT

[15] United States: August inflation profile - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-august-inflation-profile-td-securities-202608180909 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 09:09:33 GMT

[16] Canadian Dollar receives support from firm oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-receives-support-from-firm-oil-prices-202608180903 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 09:03:42 GMT

[17] Eurozone ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment registered at 31.4 above expectations (25.4) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-zew-survey-economic-sentiment-registered-at-314-above-expectations-254-in-august-202608180902 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 09:02:57 GMT

[18] Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment improves more than expected to 34.2 in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-zew-survey-economic-sentiment-improves-more-than-expected-to-342-in-august-202608180902 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 09:02:34 GMT

[19] Cool UK jobs market questions need for rate hikes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/cool-uk-jobs-market-questions-need-for-rate-hikes-202608180900 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 09:00:33 GMT

[20] Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment above expectations (30) in August: Actual (34.2) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-zew-survey-economic-sentiment-above-expectations-30-in-august-actual-342-202608180900 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 09:00:02 GMT

[21] Germany ZEW Survey - Current Situation registered at -61.1 above expectations (-68.8) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-zew-survey-current-situation-registered-at-611-above-expectations-688-in-august-202608180900 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 09:00:02 GMT

[22] US Dollar: Dovish Fed repricing versus strong flows - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-dovish-fed-repricing-versus-strong-flows-bbh-202608180858 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 08:58:04 GMT

[23] Why higher yields are changing the investment playbook URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/why-higher-yields-are-changing-the-investment-playbook-202608180857 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 08:57:32 GMT

[24] Fiscal concerns and doubts on Fed independence send US yields to long-term highs URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fiscal-concerns-and-doubts-on-fed-independence-send-us-yields-to-long-term-highs-202608180853 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 08:53:14 GMT

[25] Brent: Rally extends above $91/bbl - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-rally-extends-above-91-bbl-ing-202608180847 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 08:47:26 GMT

[26] Euro: Overvaluation and energy risks weigh against US Dollar - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-overvaluation-and-energy-risks-weigh-against-us-dollar-mufg-202608180836 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 08:36:52 GMT

[27] UK jobs data gives BoE 'little reason' to raise rates - Sterling could remain under pressure URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/uk-jobs-data-gives-boe-little-reason-to-raise-rates-sterling-could-remain-under-pressure-202608180835 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 08:35:55 GMT

[28] Markets start to turn - Is the risk-on rally losing momentum? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/markets-start-to-turn-is-the-risk-on-rally-losing-momentum-202608180832 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 08:32:30 GMT

[29] AUD/USD Price Forecast: Holds breakout near 0.7100 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-forecast-holds-breakout-near-07100-202608180825 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 08:25:15 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (4):

[1] Iran parliament speaker to meet senior Iraqi officials during visit, Iranian envoy says Time: 2026-08-18T08:53:34.398Z

[2] Hormuz to remain closed until US meets deal terms, Ghalibaf says Time: 2026-08-18T08:49:01.424Z

[3] UAE condemns Iranian drone attack in Iraq's Kurdistan Region Time: 2026-08-18T08:09:35.837Z

[4] Saudi Arabia condemns attacks on Iraqi Kurdish premier's office Time: 2026-08-18T07:53:06.822Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 171 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 12 of 60 normal daily — 20.0% of normal
Throughput: 12.0% of normal (1.2M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 449
Oil Prices: Brent $93.26 (+0.56%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 56.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS185 (+270% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost