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2026-W34

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-18 04:01:23 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.4% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β€” Strong divergence β€” structural signals broadly disagree with price

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED DIX 0.475 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.32 put-heavy
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT GEX +6.8B strong suppression
Breadth 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Breadth 62% β€” broad participation supports rally
Energy 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Energy STABLE β€” no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED Copper/Gold -6.7% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.41% restrictive
Correlations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” SPY/VIX -0.56 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.14 normal, SPY/TNX -0.44 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.68 stretched
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 15.2 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 6.18 dealer fear
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Stagflation score 18 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT USD/JPY 5d +0.1% stable, MOVE 76 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β€” hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT HY OAS 2.67% benign, NFCI -0.549 loose

Divergence read: Strong divergence β€” gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β€” reversal risk if structure holds.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 84/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.475; GEX positive at 6.8B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $772.65 | 50 SMA $748.93 | 200 SMA $705.46 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.95
  • QQQ: $729.98 | 50 SMA $712.95 | 200 SMA $650.62 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $718.93
  • IWM: $304.08 | 50 SMA $295.10 | 200 SMA $268.55 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $282.5
  • VIX: 15.19 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.724%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $772.65 75.15 55.5 $755.95 Neutral 1.26
QQQ $729.98 70.52 60.4 $718.93 Bearish 0.47
IWM $304.08 67.58 27.3 $282.50 Neutral 0.80

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 15.19 31.40 50.9 $10.50 Neutral 1.13
TNX 47.24 55.28 40.7 - - -
GLD $405.90 71.08 27.5 $389.28 Bearish 0.37
DXY 99.60 24.44 29.9 - - -
SLV $59.62 69.47 11.2 $45.00 Bearish 0.29

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.475
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.8B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.67% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.98%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.53% (Healthy slope)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 62.5%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.0%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 483
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 31.4%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Energy 100.0% 0/0
Health Care 80.4% 0/0
Communication Services 76.5% 0/0
Financials 71.6% 0/0
Materials 70.8% 0/0
Industrials 67.7% 0/0
Technology 62.5% 0/0
Consumer Staples 57.6% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 54.2% 0/0
Real Estate 23.1% 0/0
Utilities 16.7% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: STABLE
  • WTI Crude: $85.00 (5d: +2.2%)
  • Brent Crude: $91.12 | Spread: $6.12
  • RBOB Gasoline: $2.9900/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.3100/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $59.06/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $62.58
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $9.83

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.558 elevated
SPY / DXY -0.139 normal
SPY / TNX -0.441 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.676 stretched

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 75.63
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 2,948,207.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 3,884,444.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.32 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $527.9B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $780 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $772.65)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
  • Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -3.2% (as of 2026-08-12)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.72%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.60
  • Growth vs Value: 0.94
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.25% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.28%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.31%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6760.0B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $964.0B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.3B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,796B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,859B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,040B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,695B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,139 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [WARNING] VVIX/VIX ratio at 6.2 β€” vol-of-vol outpacing VIX, uncertainty about uncertainty rising.
  • [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -6.7% β€” growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
  • [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 6/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β€” structural repricing risk elevated.
  • [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β€” normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.475, GEX +6.8B, HY OAS 2.67%, breadth 62%.
  • [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β€” systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~268h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: August
  • Average Return: +0.39%
  • Median Return: +1.41%
  • Hit Rate: 65%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Retail Sales: 660047.0 | Prev: 665054.0

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
  • Retail Sales: 2026-09-16

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑8.1% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.4% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (25):

[1] United States Dollar Index extends recovery from two-month low; trades above 99.50 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-extends-recovery-from-two-month-low-trades-above-9950-202608180755 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 07:55:12 GMT

[2] GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Pound steadies below the 216.35 resistance area URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-jpy-price-forecast-pound-steadies-below-the-21635-resistance-area-202608180750 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 07:50:18 GMT

[3] Gold pulls back amid Middle East tensions and Fed rate uncertainty URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-pulls-back-amid-middle-east-tensions-and-fed-rate-uncertainty-202608180750 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 07:50:06 GMT

[4] Australian Dollar: Upside risk targets 0.7150 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-upside-risk-targets-07150-against-us-dollar-uob-202608180743 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 07:43:13 GMT

[5] The rise of Gold-backed stablecoins: Could they change precious metals investing? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-rise-of-gold-backed-stablecoins-could-they-change-precious-metals-investing-202608180734 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 07:34:54 GMT

[6] British Pound: Softer as jobs data cools hikes - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-softer-as-jobs-data-cools-hikes-ing-202608180721 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 07:21:38 GMT

[7] Japanese Yen hits drift closer to the key 160.00 level as risk appetite fades URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-hits-drift-closer-to-the-key-16000-level-as-risk-appetite-fades-202608180715 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 07:15:15 GMT

[8] US Dollar: Carry-supported but rangebound near term - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-carry-supported-but-rangebound-near-term-ocbc-202608180708 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 07:08:51 GMT

[9] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD remains sideways around $65, FOMC takes centre stage URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-remains-sideways-around-65-fomc-takes-centre-stage-202608180707 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 07:07:24 GMT

[10] USD/CAD Price Forecast: Consolidates below 1.3900 as bears await 200-SMA breakdown URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-consolidates-below-13900-as-bears-await-200-sma-breakdown-202608180703 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 07:03:28 GMT

[11] Forex Today: Mood sours as Middle East tensions come back under spotlight URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-mood-sours-as-middle-east-tensions-come-back-under-spotlight-202608180700 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 07:00:14 GMT

[12] Equities: Stagflation fears weigh on US stocks - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-stagflation-fears-weigh-on-us-stocks-deutsche-bank-202608180649 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 06:49:32 GMT

[13] Euro holds gains against British Pound as UK unemployment disappoints
URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-holds-gains-against-british-pound-as-uk-unemployment-disappoints-202608180644 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 06:44:05 GMT

[14] US10Y price outlook: US government bonds 10 YR yield navigating between arc levels URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/us10y-price-outlook-us-government-bonds-10-yr-yield-navigating-between-arc-levels-202608180641 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 06:41:15 GMT

[15] Q2 earnings season standout performers: PLTR, MSFT URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/q2-earnings-season-standout-performers-pltr-msft-202608180635 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 06:35:16 GMT

[16] British Pound dips to fresh lows near 1.3520 after mixed UK employment data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-dips-to-fresh-lows-near-13520-after-mixed-uk-employment-data-202608180629 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 06:29:35 GMT

[17] Indian Rupee: RBI inflow strategy recalibrated - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-rbi-inflow-strategy-recalibrated-commerzbank-202608180627 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 06:27:50 GMT

[18] British Pound drops against Yen after UK employment data release URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-drops-against-yen-after-uk-employment-data-release-202608180615 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 06:15:56 GMT

[19] Euro: Upside bias needs confirmation above 1.1615 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-upside-bias-needs-confirmation-above-11615-against-us-dollar-uob-202608180610 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 06:10:28 GMT

[20] United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate fell from previous 4.4% to 4.3% in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-claimant-count-rate-fell-from-previous-44-to-43-in-july-202608180603 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 06:03:25 GMT

[21] United Kingdom Unemployment Rate stays at 4.9% in June vs. 4.8% expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-unemployment-rate-stays-at-49-in-june-vs-48-expected-202608180602 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 06:02:04 GMT

[22] United Kingdom Claimant Count Change came in at -11K below forecasts (11.2K) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-claimant-count-change-came-in-at-11k-below-forecasts-112k-in-july-202608180601 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 06:01:57 GMT

[23] United Kingdom Employment Change (3M): 83K (June) vs previous 147K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-employment-change-3m-83k-june-vs-previous-147k-202608180601 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 06:01:30 GMT

[24] Indonesian Rupiah holds weak footing ahead of looming BI policy decision URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesian-rupiah-holds-weak-footing-ahead-of-looming-bi-policy-decision-202608180601 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 06:01:11 GMT

[25] United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) registered at 4.9% above expectations (4.8%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-ilo-unemployment-rate-3m-registered-at-49-above-expectations-48-in-june-202608180601 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 06:01:08 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (4):

[1] Tehran yet to find suitable site to name after slain Supreme Leader Time: 2026-08-18T07:37:50.070Z

[2] Unidentified airstrikes hit military base in northwest Syria - Reuters Time: 2026-08-18T07:25:33.944Z

[3] Iran vice president hails wartime market management as government success Time: 2026-08-18T06:33:49.290Z

[4] Six commodity ships cross Strait of Hormuz - Reuters Time: 2026-08-18T06:21:26.388Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 171 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 12 of 60 normal daily β€” 20.0% of normal
  • Throughput: 20.0% of normal (2.1M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 350
  • Oil Prices: Brent $93.26 (+0.56%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 56.7x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS185 (+270% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost