Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-18 02:01:33 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.4% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.475 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.32 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +6.8B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 62% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -6.7% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.41% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.56 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.14 normal, SPY/TNX -0.44 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.68 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.2 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 6.18 dealer fear |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.1% stable, MOVE 76 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.67% benign, NFCI -0.549 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 84/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.475; GEX positive at 6.8B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $772.65 | 50 SMA $748.93 | 200 SMA $705.46 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.95
- QQQ: $729.98 | 50 SMA $712.95 | 200 SMA $650.62 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $718.93
- IWM: $304.08 | 50 SMA $295.10 | 200 SMA $268.55 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $282.5
- VIX: 15.19 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.724%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $772.65 | 75.15 | 55.5 | $755.95 | Neutral | 1.26 |
| QQQ | $729.98 | 70.52 | 60.4 | $718.93 | Bearish | 0.47 |
| IWM | $304.08 | 67.58 | 27.3 | $282.50 | Neutral | 0.80 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.19 | 31.40 | 50.9 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.13 |
| TNX | 47.24 | 55.28 | 40.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $405.90 | 71.08 | 27.5 | $389.28 | Bearish | 0.37 |
| DXY | 99.60 | 24.44 | 29.9 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $59.62 | 69.47 | 11.2 | $45.00 | Bearish | 0.29 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.475
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.8B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.67% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.98%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.53% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 62.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.0%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 483
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.4%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 80.4% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 76.5% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 71.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 70.8% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 67.7% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 62.5% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 57.6% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 54.2% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 23.1% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 16.7% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $85.00 (5d: +2.2%)
- Brent Crude: $91.12 | Spread: $6.12
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9900/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.3100/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $59.06/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $62.58
- UNG (Nat Gas): $9.83
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.558 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.139 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.441 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.676 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 75.63
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,948,207.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,884,444.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.32 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $527.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $780 | Put Wall: $773 (Spot: $772.65)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -3.2% (as of 2026-08-12)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.72%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.60
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.25% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.28%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.31%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6760.0B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $964.0B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,796B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,859B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,040B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,695B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,159 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] VVIX/VIX ratio at 6.2 β vol-of-vol outpacing VIX, uncertainty about uncertainty rising.
- [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -6.7% β growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
- [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 6/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β structural repricing risk elevated.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.475, GEX +6.8B, HY OAS 2.67%, breadth 62%.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~268h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.39%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Retail Sales: 660047.0 | Prev: 665054.0
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β8.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.4% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (25):
[1] United Kingdom Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) came in at 3.5%, above forecasts (3.4%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-average-earnings-excluding-bonus-3mo-yr-came-in-at-35-above-forecasts-34-in-june-202608180600 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 06:00:05 GMT
[2] United Kingdom Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) meets expectations (4.1%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-average-earnings-including-bonus-3mo-yr-meets-expectations-41-in-june-202608180600 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 06:00:04 GMT
[3] India's top traders and investors will gather at Money Expo India 2026 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/indias-top-traders-and-investors-will-gather-at-money-expo-india-2026-202608180600 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 06:00:00 GMT
[4] Foreign tourism continues to grow in CEE URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/foreign-tourism-continues-to-grow-in-cee-202608180559 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 05:59:02 GMT
[5] Cryptocurrencies Price Prediction: Chainlink, Ripple & Bitcoin - Asian Wrap 18 August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-chainlink-ripple-bitcoin-asian-wrap-18-august-202608180558 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 05:58:10 GMT
[6] First Hormuz vessel strike in 10 days, US-KR pressure talks continue URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/first-hormuz-vessel-strike-in-10-days-us-kr-pressure-talks-continue-202608180556 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 05:56:09 GMT
[7] Swiss Franc edges lower as US Dollar rebounds, FOMC minutes in focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-edges-lower-as-us-dollar-rebounds-fomc-minutes-in-focus-202608180554 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 05:54:32 GMT
[8] German ZEW and UK labour market in focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/german-zew-and-uk-labour-market-in-focus-202608180548 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 05:48:56 GMT
[9] Chainlink Price Forecast: LINK stalls near 200-day EMA following recent gains URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/chainlink-price-forecast-link-stalls-near-200-day-ema-following-recent-gains-202608180541 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 05:41:15 GMT
[10] Indian Rupee ticks up on possible RBI's intervention URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-ticks-up-on-possible-rbis-intervention-202608180534 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 05:34:57 GMT
[11] Top Altcoins Price Forecast: XRP loses $1, ADA in a freefall while SOL remains capped URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/top-altcoins-price-forecast-xrp-loses-1-ada-in-a-freefall-while-sol-remains-capped-202608180526 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 05:26:23 GMT
[12] Morning briefing: The US treasury yields have risen sharply URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/morning-briefing-the-us-treasury-yields-have-risen-sharply-202608180520 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 05:20:58 GMT
[13] Euro declines below 1.1600 on US-Iran war worries URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-declines-below-11600-on-us-iran-war-worries-202608180520 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 05:20:52 GMT
[14] South Korea's Jeonbuk Bank taps Ripple for cross-border payments URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/south-koreas-jeonbuk-bank-taps-ripple-for-cross-border-payments-202608180508 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 05:08:01 GMT
[15] Saudi Arabia Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/saudi-arabia-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608180505 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 05:05:32 GMT
[16] Philippines Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/philippines-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608180501 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 05:01:32 GMT
[17] United Arab Emirates Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-arab-emirates-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608180455 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 04:55:16 GMT
[18] Australian Dollar bulls seem hesitant near 0.7100 as USD recovers from two-month low URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-bulls-seem-hesitant-near-07100-as-usd-recovers-from-two-month-low-202608180449 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 04:49:08 GMT
[19] Pakistan Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pakistan-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608180447 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 04:47:26 GMT
[20] EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Rises to near 185.00 after breaking above 50-day EMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-price-forecast-rises-to-near-18500-after-breaking-above-50-day-ema-202608180442 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 04:42:17 GMT
[21] India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608180437 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 04:37:19 GMT
[22] Malaysia Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/malaysia-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608180431 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 04:31:09 GMT
[23] AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Strengthens to near 113.50, near-term outlook remain constructive URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-jpy-price-forecast-strengthens-to-near-11350-near-term-outlook-remain-constructive-202608180427 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 04:27:48 GMT
[24] Ripple and Stellar outlook: Remain under bearish pressure as corrective declines cap upside URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ripple-and-stellar-outlook-remain-under-bearish-pressure-as-corrective-declines-cap-upside-202608180413 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 04:13:01 GMT
[25] WTI Price Forecast: Bulls retain near two-week top, above $84.00 and 38.2% Fibo. URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-price-forecast-bulls-retain-near-two-week-top-above-8400-and-382-fibo-202608180402 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 04:02:55 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (4):
[1] Iran lawmaker accuses France of intelligence activity for US Time: 2026-08-18T05:47:02.916Z
[2] Iran parliament speaker to visit Iraq on Wednesday - IRGC media Time: 2026-08-18T05:40:54.583Z
[3] Paper use limits schoolbook changes after Khamenei's death, official says Time: 2026-08-18T05:13:26.178Z
[4] Iran governor admits official failings during January protests Time: 2026-08-18T04:34:40.760Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 171 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 3 of 60 normal daily β 5.0% of normal
- Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $93.26 (+0.56%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS85 (+70% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost