Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-18 00:01:21 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.4% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.475 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.32 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +6.8B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 62% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -6.7% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.41% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.54 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.14 normal, SPY/TNX -0.45 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.68 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.2 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 6.18 dealer fear |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.1% stable, MOVE 76 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.67% benign, NFCI -0.549 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 84/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.475; GEX positive at 6.8B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $772.65 | 50 SMA $748.93 | 200 SMA $705.46 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.95
- QQQ: $729.98 | 50 SMA $712.95 | 200 SMA $650.62 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $718.93
- IWM: $304.08 | 50 SMA $295.10 | 200 SMA $268.55 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $282.5
- VIX: 15.19 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.724%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $772.65 | 75.15 | 55.5 | $755.95 | Neutral | 1.26 |
| QQQ | $729.98 | 70.52 | 60.4 | $718.93 | Bearish | 0.47 |
| IWM | $304.08 | 67.58 | 27.3 | $282.50 | Neutral | 0.80 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.19 | 31.40 | 50.9 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.13 |
| TNX | 47.24 | 55.28 | 40.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $405.90 | 71.08 | 27.5 | $389.28 | Bearish | 0.37 |
| DXY | 99.60 | 24.44 | 29.9 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $59.62 | 69.47 | 11.2 | $45.00 | Bearish | 0.29 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.475
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.8B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.67% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.98%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.53% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 62.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.0%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 483
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.4%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 80.4% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 76.5% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 71.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 70.8% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 67.7% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 62.5% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 57.6% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 54.2% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 23.1% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 16.7% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $85.00 (5d: +2.2%)
- Brent Crude: $91.12 | Spread: $6.12
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9900/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.3100/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $59.06/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $62.58
- UNG (Nat Gas): $9.83
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.544 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.143 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.452 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.682 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 75.63
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,948,207.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,884,444.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.32 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $527.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $780 | Put Wall: $773 (Spot: $772.65)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -3.2% (as of 2026-08-12)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.72%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.60
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.25% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.28%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.31%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6760.0B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $964.0B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,796B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,859B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,040B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,695B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,105 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~268h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: naaim_exposure has printed the same value (79.7) for 14 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is weekly (~5 trading day(s); freeze bar 10). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 25 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: acm_term_premium_10y has printed the same value (0.83) for 6 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 88 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_max_pain has printed the same value (735.0) for 34 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.39%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Retail Sales: 660047.0 | Prev: 665054.0
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β8.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.4% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (6):
[1] Crypto Market Overview: Bitcoin rebounds while Polygon, Zcash lead gains URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-market-overview-bitcoin-rebounds-while-polygon-zcash-lead-gains-202608180356 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 03:56:03 GMT
[2] Gold drifts lower as oil-driven inflation risks and US-Iran tensions bolster USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-drifts-lower-as-oil-driven-inflation-risks-and-us-iran-tensions-bolster-usd-202608180349 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 03:49:02 GMT
[3] UKMTO reports incident in the Strait of Hormuz -- Reuters URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ukmto-reports-incident-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-reuters-202608180337 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 03:37:46 GMT
[4] Japanese Yen remains near two-week low against US Dollar despite hawkish BoJ bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-remains-near-two-week-low-against-us-dollar-despite-hawkish-boj-bets-202608180326 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 03:26:08 GMT
[5] United States Dollar Index holds ground on safe-haven demand URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-holds-ground-on-safe-haven-demand-202608180311 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 03:11:46 GMT
[6] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bulls take a breather before the next push higher URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-bulls-take-a-breather-before-the-next-push-higher-202608180305 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 03:05:32 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Vessel hit by unknown projectile in Strait of Hormuz Time: 2026-08-18T03:30:19.144Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 171 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 0 of 60 normal daily β 0.0% of normal
- Throughput: 0.0% of normal (0.0M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 449
- Oil Prices: Brent $93.26 (+0.56%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS200 (+300% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost