Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-17 22:46:37 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 12% (1 aligned, 7 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.475 above 0.45 and rising β institutions accumulating, 0DTE PCR 1.32 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +6.8B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 62% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -6.7% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.41% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.54 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.13 normal, SPY/TNX -0.45 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.68 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.2 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 6.18 dealer fear |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.1% stable, MOVE 76 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.67% benign, NFCI -0.549 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β dark pool, gamma, and breadth flash bullish as SPY falls. 7 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 84/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 7 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX rising to 0.475 (institutional accumulation increasing); GEX positive at 6.8B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads tightening (risk appetite improving). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: KHC, PFE, FSLR
- Shorts: WTW, VLY
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 14% (n=240) | 3d 36% (n=240) | 5d 32% (n=240)
- Screener Board Record: 204 closed (hit rate 45%) Β· 152 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $772.65 | 50 SMA $748.93 | 200 SMA $705.46 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.95
- QQQ: $729.98 | 50 SMA $712.95 | 200 SMA $650.62 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $718.93
- IWM: $304.08 | 50 SMA $295.10 | 200 SMA $268.55 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $282.5
- VIX: 15.19 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.724%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $772.65 | 75.15 | 55.5 | $755.95 | Neutral | 1.26 |
| QQQ | $729.98 | 70.52 | 60.4 | $718.93 | Bearish | 0.47 |
| IWM | $304.08 | 67.58 | 27.3 | $282.50 | Neutral | 0.80 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.19 | 31.40 | 50.9 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.13 |
| TNX | 47.24 | 55.28 | 40.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $405.90 | 71.08 | 27.5 | $389.28 | Bearish | 0.37 |
| DXY | 99.60 | 24.44 | 29.9 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $59.62 | 69.47 | 11.2 | $45.00 | Bearish | 0.29 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.475
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.8B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.67% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.98%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.53% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 62.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.0%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 483
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.4%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 80.4% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 76.5% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 71.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 70.8% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 67.7% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 62.5% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 57.6% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 54.2% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 23.1% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 16.7% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $85.00 (5d: +2.2%)
- Brent Crude: $91.12 | Spread: $6.12
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9900/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.3100/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $59.06/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $62.58
- UNG (Nat Gas): $9.83
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.544 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.134 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.452 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.682 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 75.63
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,948,207.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,884,444.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.32 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $527.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $780 | Put Wall: $773 (Spot: $772.65)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -3.2% (as of 2026-08-12)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.72%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.60
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.25% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.28%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.31%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6760.0B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $964.0B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,796B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,859B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,040B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,695B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,094 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] VVIX/VIX ratio at 6.2 β vol-of-vol outpacing VIX, uncertainty about uncertainty rising.
- [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -6.7% β growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
- [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 6/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β structural repricing risk elevated.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.475, GEX +6.8B, HY OAS 2.67%, breadth 62%.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] Screener: CVS β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 60/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=3888)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: BF-B β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 74/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=3888)). Worth a look.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.39%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Retail Sales: 660047.0 | Prev: 665054.0
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β8.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.4% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (2):
[1] New Zealand Dollar edges lower below 0.5900 as China's economy slows in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-edges-lower-below-05900-as-chinas-economy-slows-in-july-202608180226 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 02:26:20 GMT
[2] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls to near $65.50 amid US-Iran peace uncertainty URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-falls-to-near-6550-amid-us-iran-peace-uncertainty-202608180208 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 02:08:51 GMT
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 170 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 3 of 60 normal daily β 5.0% of normal
- Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $93.26 (+0.56%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 30.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS275 (+450% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $8.5 billion/day economic cost