Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-18 08:31:45 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.9% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.475 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.32 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +6.8B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 62% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -5.2% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.41% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.56 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.14 normal, SPY/TNX -0.44 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.68 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.7 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 138 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 5.57 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.2% stable, MOVE 76 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.67% benign, NFCI -0.549 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 84/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.475; GEX positive at 6.8B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.7 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: KHC, PFE, FSLR
- Shorts: WTW, VLY
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 14% (n=240) | 3d 36% (n=240) | 5d 32% (n=240)
- Screener Board Record: 204 closed (hit rate 45%) Β· 152 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $769.11 | 50 SMA $749.24 | 200 SMA $705.88 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $748.02
- QQQ: $720.49 | 50 SMA $712.74 | 200 SMA $651.10 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $727.48
- IWM: $302.93 | 50 SMA $295.34 | 200 SMA $268.83 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $297.57
- VIX: 15.73 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.738%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $769.11 | 70.94 | 52.4 | $748.02 | Neutral | 0.99 |
| QQQ | $720.49 | 73.88 | 57.7 | $727.48 | Neutral | 0.99 |
| IWM | $302.93 | 65.18 | 26.7 | $297.57 | Neutral | 0.91 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.73 | 37.78 | 46.1 | $11.05 | Neutral | 1.29 |
| TNX | 47.38 | 61.72 | 39.1 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $402.93 | 78.92 | 27.5 | $389.28 | Bearish | 0.34 |
| DXY | 99.62 | 21.09 | 36.3 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $58.80 | 77.89 | 11.2 | $46.00 | Bearish | 0.31 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.475
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.8B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.67% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.98%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.53% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 62.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.0%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 483
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.4%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 80.4% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 76.5% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 71.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 70.8% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 67.7% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 62.5% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 57.6% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 54.2% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 23.1% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 16.7% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $84.29 (5d: +1.2%)
- Brent Crude: $91.15 | Spread: $6.86
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0000/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.3000/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $59.91/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $61.91
- UNG (Nat Gas): $9.92
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.558 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.139 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.441 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.676 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 75.63
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.32 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $527.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $769.11)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -3.2% (as of 2026-08-12)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.74%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.62
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.25% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.28%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.31%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6760.0B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $964.0B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,796B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,859B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,040B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,695B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,214 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -5.2% β growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
- [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 6/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β structural repricing risk elevated.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.475, GEX +6.8B, HY OAS 2.67%, breadth 62%.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~268h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.39%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.6395 | Prev: 102.5606
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β8.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.4% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (11):
[1] Euro: Range-bound before FOMC against US Dollar - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-range-bound-before-fomc-against-us-dollar-ing-202608181230 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 12:30:23 GMT
[2] United States Import Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (0.1%) in July: Actual (-0.4%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-import-price-index-mom-below-forecasts-01-in-july-actual-04-202608181230 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 12:30:06 GMT
[3] United States Housing Starts Change down to -12.4% in July from previous 19% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-housing-starts-change-down-to-124-in-july-from-previous-19-202608181230 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 12:30:05 GMT
[4] United States Export Price Index (MoM) came in at -1.3%, below expectations (0.2%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-export-price-index-mom-came-in-at-13-below-expectations-02-in-july-202608181230 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 12:30:04 GMT
[5] XRP Price Forecast: XRP slips below $1.00 as Ripple deepens Korean banking ties URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/xrp-price-forecast-xrp-slips-below-100-as-ripple-deepens-korean-banking-ties-202608181230 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 12:30:00 GMT
[6] US ADP Employment Change 4-week average rises to 9.5K as hiring rebounds URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-adp-employment-change-4-week-average-rises-to-95k-as-hiring-rebounds-202608181224 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 12:24:41 GMT
[7] Brent: War-linked range trading outlook - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-war-linked-range-trading-outlook-bbh-202608181219 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 12:19:47 GMT
[8] United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average increased to 9.5K in July 25 from previous 8.25K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-adp-employment-change-4-week-average-increased-to-95k-in-july-25-from-previous-825k-202608181216 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 12:16:50 GMT
[9] Hormuz risk moves beyond Oil as refining margins and bond yields stay elevated URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/hormuz-risk-moves-beyond-oil-as-refining-margins-and-bond-yields-stay-elevated-202608181216 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 12:16:16 GMT
[10] Canadian Dollar remains resilient as Oil strength counters firmer US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-remains-resilient-as-oil-strength-counters-firmer-us-dollar-202608181216 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 12:16:05 GMT
[11] Canada Housing Starts s.a (YoY) registered at 229.1K, below expectations (248K) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-housing-starts-sa-yoy-registered-at-2291k-below-expectations-248k-in-july-202608181215 Published: Tue, 18 Aug 2026 12:15:07 GMT
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 171 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 12 of 60 normal daily β 20.0% of normal
- Throughput: 20.0% of normal (2.1M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 449
- Oil Prices: Brent $93.26 (+0.56%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS372 (+644% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost