Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-17 04:01:09 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 14% (1 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE — Strong divergence — structural signals broadly disagree with price

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.469 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.07 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	GEX +15.2B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Breadth 71% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	Copper/Gold -3.9% growth pessimism · real yield 2.39% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.53 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.14 normal, SPY/TNX -0.44 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.67 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 14.2 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 138 normal · VVIX/VIX 6.14 dealer fear
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Stagflation score 18 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	USD/JPY 5d +0.1% stable, MOVE 70 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	HY OAS 2.71% moderate, NFCI -0.549 loose

Divergence read: Strong divergence — gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 7 signals refuse to confirm the decline — reversal risk if structure holds.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 86/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.469; GEX positive at 15.2B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $775.98 | 50 SMA $748.93 | 200 SMA $705.46 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.95
QQQ: $730.85 | 50 SMA $712.95 | 200 SMA $650.62 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $718.94
IWM: $304.90 | 50 SMA $295.10 | 200 SMA $268.55 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $281.0
VIX: 14.25 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.696%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$775.98	75.15	55.5	$755.95	Neutral	0.61
QQQ	$730.85	70.52	60.4	$718.94	Neutral	0.57
IWM	$304.90	67.58	27.3	$281.00	Neutral	0.52

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	14.25	31.40	50.9	$10.50	Bearish	1.63
TNX	46.96 ▼	55.28	40.7	-	-	-
GLD	$401.84	71.08	27.5	$380.99	Bearish	0.40
DXY	99.67	24.01	30.0	-	-	-
SLV	$58.65	69.47	11.2	$42.00	Bearish	0.32

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 15.19B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.98%
2s10s Spread: 0.51% (Healthy slope)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 70.6%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 73.9%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 411
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.2%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	94.7%	0/0
Financials	84.5%	0/0
Communication Services	83.3%	0/0
Health Care	82.9%	0/0
Consumer Staples	82.1%	0/0
Industrials	75.5%	0/0
Materials	73.7%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	64.6%	0/0
Technology	63.2%	0/0
Real Estate	34.8%	0/0
Utilities	29.2%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $82.40 (5d: +0.3%)
Brent Crude: $88.52 | Spread: $6.12
RBOB Gasoline: $2.9000/gal
Heating Oil: $4.1600/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.04/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $61.91
UNG (Nat Gas): $9.92

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.527	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.142	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.438	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.672	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.58
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.07 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $548.6B
Gamma Call Wall: $780 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $775.98)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -3.2% (as of 2026-08-12)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.70%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.00 (Normal)
DXY: 99.67
Growth vs Value: 0.94
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.24% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.27%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.30%
Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6760.0B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $964.0B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,796B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,855B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,044B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,695B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,486 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] Leading indicator divergence: 3/5 leading signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend — historically precedes repricing within 3-5 days.
[WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 6/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend — structural repricing risk elevated.
[WARNING] VVIX/VIX ratio at 6.1 — vol-of-vol outpacing VIX, uncertainty about uncertainty rising.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.469, GEX +15.2B, HY OAS 2.71%, breadth 71%.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~244h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~76h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.42%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Retail Sales: 660047.0 | Prev: 665054.0

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑8.1% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.4% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (28):

[1] New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ seen on hold in September - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-rbnz-seen-on-hold-in-september-commerzbank-202608170758 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 07:58:09 GMT

[2] New Zealand Dollar hits fresh two-month highs past 0.5900 despite weak data from China URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-hits-fresh-two-month-highs-past-05900-despite-weak-data-from-china-202608170756 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 07:56:12 GMT

[3] Australian Dollar hits fresh high since June 5 as bearish USD outweigh weak China data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-hits-fresh-high-since-june-5-as-bearish-usd-outweigh-weak-china-data-202608170753 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 07:53:12 GMT

[4] British Pound: Uptrend intact toward 1.3600 cap against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-uptrend-intact-toward-13600-cap-against-us-dollar-uob-202608170739 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 07:39:01 GMT

[5] Canada CPI expected to show rising inflation in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-cpi-expected-to-show-rising-inflation-in-july-202608170730 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 07:30:00 GMT

[6] WTI & $CAD - Watch the correlation [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/wti-cad-watch-the-correlation-video-202608170729 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 07:29:55 GMT

[7] Japanese Yen: Intervention risks cap losses against US Dollar - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-intervention-risks-cap-losses-against-us-dollar-ocbc-202608170727 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 07:27:25 GMT

[8] 0.8550: Euro tests one-week highs against British Pound amid ECB hawkish bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/08550-euro-tests-one-week-highs-against-british-pound-amid-ecb-hawkish-bets-202608170720 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 07:20:37 GMT

[9] Forex Today: US Dollar extends pullback to start new week URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-us-dollar-extends-pullback-to-start-new-week-202608170716 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 07:16:31 GMT

[10] Canadian Dollar: Data and tariffs shape near-term risks - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-data-and-tariffs-shape-near-term-risks-td-securities-202608170710 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 07:10:51 GMT

[11] China House Price Index climbed from previous -3.3% to -3.2% in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-house-price-index-climbed-from-previous-33-to-32-in-july-202608170703 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 07:03:54 GMT

[12] China Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (YoY) came in at -6.7% below forecasts (-6.2%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-fixed-asset-investment-ytd-yoy-came-in-at-67-below-forecasts-62-in-july-202608170703 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 07:03:39 GMT

[13] 0.6%: China's Retail Sales miss expectations in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/06-chinas-retail-sales-miss-expectations-in-july-202608170701 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 07:01:15 GMT

[14] Swedish Krona: Riksbank steady as currency lags - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swedish-krona-riksbank-steady-as-currency-lags-bny-202608170700 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 07:00:08 GMT

[15] China Retail Sales (YoY) below forecasts (1.5%) in July: Actual (0.6%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-retail-sales-yoy-below-forecasts-15-in-july-actual-06-202608170700 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 07:00:01 GMT

[16] China Industrial Production (YoY) came in at 4.5% below forecasts (5%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-industrial-production-yoy-came-in-at-45-below-forecasts-5-in-july-202608170700 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 07:00:01 GMT

[17] Versus Trade celebrates Merdeka with exclusive trading rewards for Malaysian traders
URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/versus-trade-celebrates-merdeka-with-exclusive-trading-rewards-for-malaysian-traders-202608170700 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 07:00:00 GMT

[18] Canadian Dollar edges higher as Fed rate hike bets recede, CPI data looms URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-edges-higher-as-fed-rate-hike-bets-recede-cpi-data-looms-202608170657 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 06:57:55 GMT

[19] Equities: Mixed performance across regions - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-mixed-performance-across-regions-deutsche-bank-202608170653 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 06:53:41 GMT

[20] Sweden: Higher global price pressure and 'chipflation' now visible in Swedish inflation URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/sweden-higher-global-price-pressure-and-chipflation-now-visible-in-swedish-inflation-202608170647 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 06:47:44 GMT

[21] British Pound: Data mix limits sustained gains against US Dollar - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-data-mix-limits-sustained-gains-against-us-dollar-bbh-202608170640 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 06:40:05 GMT

[22] Gold maintains recovery as weaker US data supports gains URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-maintains-recovery-as-weaker-us-data-supports-gains-202608170638 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 06:38:11 GMT

[23] NRx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NRXP) reports Q2 loss, misses revenue estimates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nrx-pharmaceuticals-inc-nrxp-reports-q2-loss-misses-revenue-estimates-202608170622 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 06:22:06 GMT

[24] Japanese Yen: Nominal growth underpins cautious strength - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-nominal-growth-underpins-cautious-strength-commerzbank-202608170621 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 06:21:36 GMT

[25] Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD approaches $66.00 favoured by a softer US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecasts-xag-usd-approaches-6600-favoured-by-a-softer-us-dollar-202608170621 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 06:21:30 GMT

[26] CEE: Is Poland facing rating downgrade? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/cee-is-poland-facing-rating-downgrade-202608170613 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 06:13:07 GMT

[27] US-Iran MOU deadline largely irrelevant - Markets look to coming US macro events URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/us-iran-mou-deadline-largely-irrelevant-markets-look-to-coming-us-macro-events-202608170610 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 06:10:13 GMT

[28] Euro: Upside bias targets 1.1590 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-upside-bias-targets-11590-against-us-dollar-uob-202608170608 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 06:08:15 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (2):

[1] Cleanup of oil pollution along Hormozgan coast completed, official says Time: 2026-08-17T06:36:48.001Z

[2] Wider war would have unpredictable consequences, Iran lawmaker warns Time: 2026-08-17T06:15:27.325Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 170 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily — 1.7% of normal
Throughput: 1.0% of normal (0.1M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 449
Oil Prices: Brent $93.26 (+0.56%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 50.0x normal
Tanker Rates: WS350 (+600% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.8 billion/day economic cost